Table of content of this blog

This post is the table of content for the better posts in this blog. Some posts have not been updated to reflect the time of recommendation such as selling Apple at $132 or buying OIL in Jan., 2016. This table of content is copied from the old one.

* Complete the Art of Investing

My purpose of this blog is to share with you my knowledge in investing and my ideas of life such as music, my ideas...

I hope to help you in investing via my book "Complete the Art of Investing". The Kindle version is $10 with over 940 pages (6*9); it is about the size of three average books.  It covers most investing topics for retail investors. It is available from Amazon.com.  Most of my books are available in paper bag and it includes the Kindle version free via Amazon.com's match book feature.

Click the following for
Summary
Table of Content of this book
Why you want to read this book.  
My original and semi original ideas
Posts help me sell books
All my books



* Defending China

Can China say no to us?

One belt, One Road.

The politicians cannot fix our problems and use China as a convenient scapegoat. Many newspapers, TV stations... want to sell their stuffs by giving what you want to hear/see by twisting the facts.

As a Chinese American, I am naturally biased but I'll not let my dumb nationalism to cover my eyes or yours. There are Chinese bashers and US bashers who do not convince us as they're not using facts. They promote distrust, confrontation, ... that I try to avoid.

Tibet. This comment has over 350 'likes' in an Economist's article. I estimate there are  3,500 reads (using 1 'like'  to 10 readers) on this long comment. Initially I faced many resentment from folks esp. from Tibetans in other articles.

Human Right. This blog has ignited discussions and scored some points for China. This one and the last one change the image of China for some.

China is a victim instead of an aggressor for last 250 years. A MUST read for Brits and Japanese.

Economy: Currency,  Rare Earth, Quality. Space Station, Tariff,
                 Wealth, 

Social topics:  Intelligence Property,  Environment, Africa, Hong Kong, Child Labor ,
                        India, Politics, Music, IP,  Modern History.

What China should do in next 5 years.
Debunk the myths on China


* US and socially speaking.

A Nation of No Losers. Quite popular. You can laugh and cry at the same time.
Trade War with China.
Our trade with China
Conflict with China
Potential effect of trade war with China
How to fix our problems
 
Lessons from Wars.
US and Wars
Efficient charities.
How to solve the trade imbalance
Tariffs on steel and alumin.
Dear recent college graduates,
Socialism could lead to self-destruction.
Why the wealth gap widens
Is Social Security going to survive?
Facebook
Patriot shoppers
Should we blame all our ills on China.
Is China friend or foe?
US vs. China
Extremes of Two Nations
 

Fixing the economy.
Why China is so poor and US so rich.
Effective Health Care Delivery.
Education by example
iGeneration 
God of Gods
Defining freedom
Political parties and the economy
Corruption, American style
Our problems, solutions and implementations
Efficient Charities
Easy fixes



* Stock Market.

Market Top. My crystal ball in April is quite right.
Market Timing.  II
Spotting big market plunges
Market timing on asset classes
Strategies for secular bull and bear markets
Recovery or W-shaped recession?
A prolonged recession
Retail's third wave
When stock is over-priced
Invest Responsibly.
The mysteries of P/E.
Diversification.
Sell shorts.
Covered calls.
Should you hold a stock forever.
Newsletters/subscriptions.
Hedge Fund 101
2011, when stock pickers die
Advice for retirees.
Dividend stock problems.
Sectors you want to avoid.
Stop Loss.
Refining Dogs of Dow Strategy.
Looking for a multi bagger
Technical Analysis.
Bonds.
Modern Portfolio Theories.
Investment Psychology 101. 
Retirees, take notice.
The evils of QE
Housing recovery?
Identifying Earnings Season Overreaction Opportunities
Different strategies
Volatility and Momentum
Distorting indexes
Dividend lovers
Trader
ETF Rotation
Market timing 4/15/2017
CD
Politics and investing
Reasons for the market fall this week

* Fun and Jokes

Even if you do not agree everything I said, hope some jokes would give you a laugh. If you get offended, you should check in your closest clinic esp. the humor department. It is not easy to write jokes that are totally unoffensive.

A + B
My day as a farmer.  A real story to be told to my grand children.
Diets that always work. Offensive to fatsos.
No Nativity Scene. Offensive to politicians.
Women.
Politicians and prostitutes

How to save the airline industry. PG 17.
My stupid name is Boris.
Celebration of Olympic Bronze.
Playing lotteries.
Lady missing a flight
Tatto
A president and a clown
My turn?
The world is round
Tony's Ark



* More in life

My Coconut Theory
One paragraph could change your health and life
The best in life
Objective in life
Religion
Travel, 
  A taste of Ireland, Baltic Cruise, Vacation Checklist
My son, the artist
Exercise: 1, 2
Happy Mother's Day
How to fight terrorists
Life is changing
English vs Chinese

* Politics

Middle East Conflict
British Exit from EU
Many firsts in this election
Republican Convention
Illegal dreamers 
--------

The following are the best blogs from my other blog. It is a collection of good articles/jokes circulated to me.

Jokes:
The new student from India. Very funny!
Break the promise PG 17
The 11th husband PG 17.
 Living in 2009
 Funny Acronyms
 Dear Employees

Graduation pictures from China, USA,Japan PG17. Does not work all the time.
Gift for mom
Bishop goes to Hollywood
Sex for seniors
How Staten Island got its name
How 'America' got the name
Who actually is Jesus. 

China:
The Yellow Flower Uprising.
Letter from a patriot
Shenzhen
Brief modern history

Health

6 Great Foods 

50 health hints (in Chinese)
Legalized drugs

18 Tai Chi movements "Fu" means "exhale" in Chinese.

 Misc. 

Amazing picture

Important Notice
(c) 2009-2018 Tony Pow

Disclaimer

Do not gamble money that you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information is believed to be accurate, but there it is not guaranteed. All the strategies including charts to detect market plunges described have no guarantee that they will make money and they may lose money. Do not trade without doing due diligence and be warned that most data would be obsolete. All my articles and the associated data are for informational and illustration purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor or a tax professional. Seek one before you make any investment decision. The above mentioned also applies for all other advice such as on accounting, taxes, health and any topic mentioned in this book/blog.  I am not a professional in any of these fields. Same for all the links contained in this book. Some articles may offend some one or some organization unintentionally. If I did, I’m sorry about that. I am politically and religiously neutral. I try my best effort to ensure the accuracy of my articles. Data also from different sources was believed to be accurate. However, there is no guarantee that they are accurate and suitable for the current market conditions and /or your individual situations. My publisher and I are not liable for any damages in using this book.  

Strategies on earnings

From my book "Complete the art of investing", there are two strategies on earnings. It is supposed to make millions for my children but they are not interested in investing. You either hate or love what your old man do.

 

1. Buy the stocks with earnings announcement soon with Zacks rating 1 (the best) and short those with Zacks rating 5 (the worst). BTW, Zacks rating is free for individual stocks

 

.2. After the earnings announcement, Google the company every second or so. If the earnings is good, buy it fast with market order. If it is bad, short it.

 

Do not be greedy and set a limit on loss. Do not call me if the trade is good or bad. In addition, check insider transactions and SMA-20%. I use Finviz.com.

Adaptive investing

What is the best metric in evaluating stocks? Most will tell you P/E. I use estimate earnings and P/E becomes Forward P/E. Switch it over to E/P for easier to understand and it is termed Earnings Yield (EY = Price/Forward Earnings).

Some may tell you ROI and there is a successful book on ROI.

Both are wrong metric as there is no single evergreen metric and there is why most have poor performances by following them blindly It is the herd theory: The performance is usually decreased in longer term when too many folks follow it.

Here is my test on S&P 500 stocks from April 1, 2019 to July 1, 2019.

I used the top 10 stocks from each sort. Commissions, dividends and spreads are omitted for simplicity. SPY’s return is annualized to 13.8%.

Value parameters

Top 10 stocks sorted by	Best SPY1
EY in descending order	-251%
Dividend Yield in descending order	-291%2

Opposite to above

Top 10 stocks sorted by	Best SPY1
EY in ascending order	6%
Dividend Yield = 0	138%3

¹   Beat by % = (Avg. return of 10 stocks – SPY) / SPY

²   Including dividend yields for the average 10 stocks and SPY, “Beat SPY’ is reduced to -241%.

³   Just randomly picked the 10 stocks that do not pay dividends as there are more stocks with no dividends.

EY, the forward Earnings Yield (i.e. EY = Forward Earnings / Price) is a long-term metric. It may still work after a year. Why do the stocks with the worst EYs perform well? It could be they are momentum stocks or could be investors looking for potential.

It is similar to choose screens to select winners. Some screens work better in the current market conditions.

today's economic news

Glad finally that China placed a big order, so our farmers can sleep better.

Oil will fluctuate for a while. I would unload it at $60. Will not be too surprised if the war with Iran gets closer and oil goes beyond $60. They can shoot down our state-of-the-art drone and show us they are not paper tigers.

Normally you want to raise the rate to cool down an over-heated economy and do the opposite vice versa. It is a bigger risk when we have too much cash flowing and/or too much used for consumption such as buying TVs from China instead of construction.

Short Google?

If you have done this since Google was founded, you have lost a lot of money.

When I'm looking for stocks for the coming book "Best stocks as of 07/xx/2019" (xx should be around the end of the month of July), shorting Google is an idea to me but most likely I do not do it.

Here are my reasons to short:

1. Android is the only operating system for the phone after Apple. If they cannot license it to Huawei, they would lose a lot of profit. Microsoft had missed billions as they had a chance to make their Windows OS a standard operating system for the phone.

2. Huawei is coming out with their own OS tentatively named ArkOS. It is supposed to be 60% faster. Even with 30% faster, it would replace Android eventually. It runs on machine code instead of p-code and that is why it is so fast.

It is being beta test I guess. It looks like it is compatible with the apps to Android. If not, the consumers have to depend on Chinese censored apps such as Chinese-equivalent of Wikipedia. If so, it would not be appealing to sales outside China.

3. Zacks has a rating of Hold and Fidelity's Score is around 6 (just above average to me). The stock price has lost about 20% from the recent peak. 

Here are my reason not to short:

The past experiences of this rising stock prevents me from taking risk.

The reason I write this blog is I expect a possible downturn in July 25, the earnings announcement date. If I write this blog after this date, I could be accused of being a Monday quarterback.

I advise all beginner investors not to short any stock.