Tuesday, December 25, 2012

My great short-term performance

As of 12/25/12, there are many analysts showing their average yearly returns and/or their returns of the top 10 stocks. It would be far too complicated to do the same for a trader like me. I have been accumulating cash and at the same time bought a lot of deeply-valued stocks in last 90 days. Let’s check how I perform so far on these stocks.

I have an average return of 11% while the average SPY is about 1%. Hence I beat SPY by 11 times. However, beating SPY 10% is quite good and 11 times (1,100%) is just amazing. Do not get too excited yet. This phenomenal return could be one time only. It could be improved stock picking technique, plain luck, or a combination. If I can achieve similar return consistently, I will post it in the Afterthoughts in my blog for this book.

From my memory, my best return is 2009 in my largest taxable account (2003 could be another good one but I did not keep good record). It is over 80% beating about 3 times SPY.

There are 20 purchases during this period. Some stocks I bought twice and counted as two purchases.

The four losers are MSFT (-8%), ACTV (-5%), KTCC (-1%) and IAG (-1%). The better winners are: VELT (64%), ALU (38%), ANR (33%) and QCOR (19%). The following are in 14% to 16% range: DECK, NC and BSX (2 purchases). I would like to include the entire spreadsheet on all my purchases, but it will not look good on an ebook with limited width for display. Click here for the list.

I have excluded the stocks that I bought in last 15 days (too early for reliable results) and the stocks that I am testing a strategy by trading them every month. This strategy so far looks promising with good gain and almost no effort on my part. I’ll include the result in my blog for this book if it proves itself to be profitable. It is based on common stocks of two subscription services.

 If I can include Cisco, the result could be even better. It has been bought three times on 7/24/12 and it has gained 31% as of 12/25/12.

In this period, I have been accumulating cash expecting a big dip. As of 12/12, my prediction has not happened, so the market timing does not work so far. It is my case of winning the battle but losing the war. 


My new ebook will display my 'secrets'.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

My new ebook, Debunk the Myths of Buffett

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  1. Special Version. 

    I have several requests for this book. It will take a while to finish it (tentative target date: 4/1/2013). I offer the pre-release version for $9.95 and I'll send the finished version in PDF format when it is ready at no additional charge. As of today this book is about 95% finished but not polished. I will have a limited number of readers for this version and I hope they will give me comments.

    How to order.

    1. Send a check of 9.95 to Tony Pow, 3 Sleeper Dr., Burlington, MA 01803.

    Include your email address with title Book order for Myth. I'll send you the PDF version.

    2. PayPal account.
    If you do not have a PayPal account, open one at PayPal.com at no charge. The advantage is you do not have to give a credit card number to a stranger. It takes minutes and eventually most should have one.

    Pay $9.95 to pow_tony@yahoo.com from your PayPal.com.

    Email me with the email title: Book order for Myth.
    I'll send you the PDF version by reply.


    Why you want to read this book

    When you have a sure-win strategy to make money, why you want to show it to the world? I cannot speak for others, but I can speak for myself. My strategies are not sure-win and most require due diligence. In addition, I do not believe in holy grail in investing, but hard work and continuous learning.
    I have been financially comfortable; you do not want to learn from one who never makes a buck in the stock market. My current strategies are more conservative as I do not need extra money to make me happy. However, I’ll disclose some strategies that are more profitable but riskier that I used before. It is my passion to find the better way to profit from the stock market by using market timing and stock evaluation. I like to share my passion with other.
    My children are not into investing. Hence, I do not hold back any of my ‘secrets’. However, some strategies are too complicated to describe in a book, but I’ll be available to show them to you and/or your organization on a consulting basis. 

    Why I wrote this book
    Buffett could be the greatest investor in our generation. Being said, some of his preaching may not be applicable in today's market. I have details to debunk some of his myths and hopefully you will avoid the pitfalls of conventional wisdom. The reader should be a better investor with my good and bad experiences.

    The book also shows you how to distinguish good data from garbage covering many investment subscriptions and advices. You would have avoided the bank meltdown if you follow the advice not to invest in specific sectors in this book.

    This book describes why the retail investors do not usually beat the index despite of the advantages they have. When you understand the problems from this book and follow the suggestions, you will hopefully beat the index.

    I boldly predict that a secular bull market will be starting as early as 2017 when the two wars will be finally over. If it does not happen, most likely it will happen before 2020. I have strong arguments for both scenario forecasts. You heard it here first.

    It includes many strategies in trading for profits. Any strategy could be over-used. That’s why I provide a modified strategy for the popular Dog of Dows. There is one illustration on how to design a strategy and test it out. We need to use the right strategy for the current market conditions. Many, including many fund managers, fail to do so and achieve a sub-par performance.

    Market timing is discussed in detail with market cycle and by calendar such as Presidential Cycle, ‘Sell in May’, best and worst times to invest, including many others.

    It covers most topics in investing including diversification, profit protection, trade prices, sell short, covered calls and trade plans. I offer practical solutions and guidelines via my experiences.

    The lessons from my bad experiences could be more valuable than the good ones. I achieved over 80% return in 2009 in his largest taxable account and reveal my secrets here. The bottom fishing strategy could be the best time during early recovery.

    This book contains 90 original and refreshing articles. This book is for more advanced retail investors. Some fund managers told me they found the ideas very useful. I also provide links to the basic topics so it is good for beginners too. I also provide a blog for this book so it is never-ending once you get hooked.


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