Yearly prediction for 2011 and 2012.

Let's look at the history of my predictions.
I predicted 10% for 2012. As of today, SPY is about 13%, so it is quite good.
I predicted  6%  for 2011. It is about 2%, so it is a little off, but it is still on track.

If we trust the prediction, it is interesting to check the performance in mid year and act accordingly.

In July, 2012,  the annualized return is 14% (7% YTD), well above the predicted 10%. However, we still should have 3% return (10%-7%) for the rest of the year.  Hence, we should be careful but not be too concerned. In reality, it gained about 4% from July to now.

In July, 2011,  the annualized return is 15% (about 7% YTD), far, far well above the predicted 6%. We should stay in cash, be conservative and/or buy contraETFs. If we did, we would avoid the 4% loss from July to the end of year.

These are two good  years for market timers and my predictions worked quite well. Some years the market is not that rational. I do not predict it would work next time.

My e-book Debunk the Myths of Buffett could save you a lot of money.

http://ebtonypow.blogspot.com/2012/12/special-debunk-myths-of-buffett.html

Important Notice.
All the numbers are rough estimates and predictions are not scientific. I use SPY for easy estimates and do not include dividends and commissions. Use it for information and education purpose.