Thursday, May 31, 2012

Investing strategies

A strategy tells you what stocks to buy, sell and when.

We should match one of the past strategies that match the current market conditions. It is not an easy job nor an exact science. You will never match them exactly. However, when it does or it is close, it will be firework in display and your pocket will be stuffed with dollar.

The following strategies are for illustration only.

1. Side way market like March to July 2012 (as of today).
Buy at dips and sell at temporary highs like 1.5% to 3% from last. The holding period could be 1 day to 2 weeks. It takes advantage of the fluctuations of good news and bad news scenario.

2. The market is up or down steadily.
Momentum profits better. Buy high and sell higher. Use contra ETFs for down market. Avg. holding period could be 2 to 6 months.

3. Buy value.
Avg. holding period could be more than 1 year. You're buying against the tide, so it will take longer time for the value to be 'discovered'. Buy low and sell high. It seems to be easy. The retail investor do not buy when the market is bleeding, and vice versa.

4. Buy from bottom.
2009 is one bottom. Bottom fishing strategy buying value stocks that have been beaten is the best profit maker. Average holding time is about 1 year and the average one year return from the bottom is about 35%. My best returns are from the last two bottoms in 2003 and 2009.

I try to guess what the current market conditions are. When the market is up or down steadily, you will lose money in using side way strategy.

There are some testing variations:

* Holding periods.
* ETF. Some small blend ETFs could be better than SPY.
* Use contraETF to guess the other direction to boost total return.
* Try to make it automated for other criteria such as holding periods, different ETFs...
* Do not play data fitting.
* If the testing period is long, break it down into smaller ones like one for each stage of the market cycle.

You may find some strategy works great like annualized to 60%.  Do not be too excited. When you play with real money, you expect 30% at best. Review your test procedures when the return is excessive like 60%. However, when you find one strategy yields 60% and another one yields 20% with same testing conditions, stick with the winner for real money.

There is no holy grail in investing as the market changes and is not rational otherwise there would be no poor folks. Investing with a  good strategy is better than investing without one.

Royal asses!

This is the year of Queen's Diamond Jubilee. Should the royal families be loved as publicized by the world? My short answer is No and they're the parasites of societies. They have no useful functions for any society today even with all the fancy titles. They are sucking up the resources which should be given to the poor. How dare of them asking for raises in a recession for doing nothing besides practicing waving hand? It is like Robin Hoods in reverse. Who pay for the expensive 'celebration' for doing nothing? What an untimely approval of the selfish spending for the rich and powerful!

Chinese have suffered a lot from the decisions of the 'royal' families.

Opium Wars.
How outrageous a nation pushing drugs to another nation? Queen Victoria, did you stamp the seal of approval? They burned the summer palace for 3 days and 3 nights and looted like bloody barbarians. Visit the ruin in Beijing for proof, and you will be amazed and sad if you have conscience. The loots are being displayed 'proudly' but actually shamelessly in museums in London and Paris. Even after many hand changes, loots are still loots. Return the loots and no question will be asked.

It led China to centuries of humiliation, bankrupted China, and changed China forever with millions starved to death who must have shed their tears from heaven on the cloudy celebration day.

Inspired by their ambitious and wicked emperor, Japanese turned themselves into animals to conquer its neighbors. Their shameful terms are 'The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere', 'Comfort Women'...

These soldiers are war criminals killing innocent folks, tossing babies to the sky, looting, raping... Many of them are being paid respect by high officials in the 'shrines', similar to paying homage to Hitler. They should be tracked down like animals and prosecuted like the German war criminals.  Instead, they bragged on how they raped young girls as described by these soldiers without remorse in the documentary Nanjing, which you can rent from Netflix. Another small girl 'wanted' to be raped to save her grandpa. The lowest of the lowest human beings!

One A-bomb should have been dropped on the Imperial Palace and the other one on the 'shrine' instead of killing innocent citizens. Even this punishment is too small for the crime. I'm sorry for the recent tsunami esp. on the suffering of the current generation who has nothing to do with WW2. It must be formed by the tears of the victims asking for justice. It could be a late punishment from God on their war crimes that they want to ignore and they change this history in the text books.

The ignorant Japanese mayor said Nanjing Massacre never happened. Japanese, young and old, please use Wikipedia and search for 'Nanjing Massacre'. Read Iris Chang's book. The  pictures in this link are gruesome.

We should not spread hatred esp. from one generation to another. However, if we do not learn from history, most likely we will repeat history. I wrote this blog for no fame and no money but trying to give a voice to millions of victims who never have a voice.

Nokia, Window8, IPad, Bill, Steve...

Random comments on the new phone from Nokia which is one of my losers I own.

Nokia runs on Windows now. The risk is high to deal with new software and new hardware. Nokia could be just a big bargain or a bouncing dead cat. It is very risky but could be very rewarding. Do not bet your farm on it.

We have seen that money has moved away from Apple to FaceBook and then is moving back to Apple. Nokia is no Facebook and Facebook on first day of IPO is no Facebook today.

Same for tablet for Windows. When you're late for dinner, the food at least the better ones have been eaten. Apple has the advantage of a better mouse trap (judging from the initial iPad and iPhone to the current ones) and support by the huge no. of quality apps. 

I predict the tablets running on Window will be popular for business users and investors like me which could be a huge but ignored market.

The first two jokes are from Amazing Photos:

* Steve Jobs enjoyed the heaven as there are no Windows and no Gates.

* The waiter was angry with his $2 tips from Gates and he shouted at Gates that his son gave him a $200 tips. Gates told him that guy's father was a lucky billionaire and his was a hard-working farmer.

* Chinese burned paper cars to their dead. The shopkeeper told his customer who bought a paper iPhone not to forget to buy a paper charger. It would be worse if your ancestor asked him to bring it down to his ancestor. This joke may not work for different culture.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Sell Delta

Warren said: If you want to be a millionaire, first be a billionaire and then buy an airline.

Dalta looks like a bargain if you look at its low expected P/E esp. when oil price is falling. However, there are too many major problems.

1. High debt. A common problem in this industry.

2. High pension obligation. Same as what bought down GM.

3. High wages raised by unions.

Bankruptcy would reduce the above three problems. Buy it after the bankruptcy that could be coming.

4. Unable to raise the prices of the air ticket. They have to charge you to use the rest room to be profitable. 

5. Deregulation has its problems. The government have to regulate some industries and airline is one of them.

6. Besides competition from other airlines, high speed rail, regular rail... will offer a lot of competition for short distance. Merger will have fewer airlines and reduce competition that harm others and also harm itself.

7. Merger is not a solution. 1 Loser + 1 Loser = 2 Losers

8. The stupid hub concept is getting more stupid with high fuel price. 

The future will be less stop over with larger and newer jets that are more fuel efficient. I propose to fire all the fat stewardesses esp. those who block my way to the rest room.

9. High cost of terrorism.

Most foreign airlines are subsidized by the government. Our government has bailed out other industries but not the airline so far.

How Clinton and I will save the airline industry or at least for a good laugh. PG17:

Monday, May 28, 2012

High Frequency Trading

When we can adjust to HFT, we can take advantage of it instead of being taken advantage of. Is the flash crash in 5/2010 caused by HFT or just an order entry error? They could drive the market to a temporary low and hence cause all the orders traded at lower prices.

I use market orders very infrequently and only for some good reasons. I seldom use stop loss that can be converted into market order that can be manipulated. I use stop limit to some small extend.

HFT will see their black swan and their fund managers will lose their shirts and out-of-work for good. For these folks, you may want to brush up your resumes and do not spend your loots as your days are numbered.

Friday, May 25, 2012

The coming secular bull market.

Eric Parnell wrote an article that there are three recessions in one secular bear market. It seems coincident to my theory on the time frame of the coming secular bull market I predict.

Does it happen due to coincidence or any theory behind it?

My theory on secular market is the war and lack of war. The following years are off by several as I do not remember the exact years.

Secular Bear Market.
1. 1960-1980. Vietnam War.
2. 2000-present. The two middle east wars.

The secular bull market in 1980-2000 is due to lack of war.

I hope our current wars will be ended completely in 3 years so I look at the starting of the next secular bull market at that time.

Most recent presidents (with exception of Bush) are not stupid enough to start another war if they understand the bad effects of the wars like employment. 


WW2 actually benefited US as most of its competitors were destroyed by the war and the war stayed out of its own country. US also welcomed the foreign skill workers/scientists mainly from Europe. The influx of the best of the world is just unbelievable.

US did not have to pay royalties to many inventions such as the atomic bomb.

This is the only major exception but with a good reason. 

Is US real estate over-priced?

Yes, according to the average wage of its citizens. We used to use the 2 and 1/2 rule. If you're making 100K a year, you're supposed to afford a house costing 250K. You need a couple making 200K total to afford a 500K house. Our current financial problem is due to greed and folks not sticking with this basic rule.

No for some foreigners. Hong Kong folks are paying 1 million for a 700 square feet apartment (prices vary depending on location). If we can attract these foreigners to buy by offering them residency, they will invest.

We lost the opportunity in 1997 when HK was handed over to China. Vancouver took advantage of it, and its real estate price was increased 100% in several short years and the price is still strong today. 

Now, the opportunity is on China's rich who want to escape from pollutions, quality food, prosecutions from corruption, opportunities of their children... We have to screen the right folks who will contribute to our country.

Housing recovery?

I expect the housing recovery will be at least 3 years away from 2012. Before this time, all are mirages. However, the investors' best return for builders will be one year before the full recovery.

If we have a w-shaped recessions and/or Japan's lost decades, it will take longer than 3 years. The builders will be profitable if they can manage their resources and projects on smaller houses and more elderly housing for the aging population.

One of the major forces that triggers the housing boom is the college graduates. When they have children, it is time to buy a house. It does not look good
as most are under-employed or unemployed with large college loans.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

When the global population ages

The global aging of population is due to the baby booms after WW2.

With respect, I've different views on the global demographics as follows.

* India will suffer from the population explosion. They will eat up all the limited resources and they will run out of water in n years which is subject to China's water policy. There are too many problems that cannot be resolved easily. I do not see a bright future for India. They classify themselves  literate if they can write their name in any language compared to about 8 years of education beyond kindergarten in China. So statistics are just being manipulated.

The brain drain is alarming as most privileged/educated  do not want to wait for their infrastructure to be fixed.  

I hope rich countries will not take a doctor from a poor country. This is the worse disservice to a poor country and depriving thousands for medical care for each doctor we import.

Just compare the sub way system and no. of highrises in India and any Tier 3 city in China. The top India city just has sub way recently and Hong Kong is far over-developed for a long while.

Compare the 1980 Hong Kong airport and its infrastructure (the longest suspension bridge in the world then ...)  to the new, recent Calcutta airport that has limited road access.Documentaries on both projects are available in Netflix.

Some told me it could be the old family controls India's economy and they do not want changes. I argue the opposite is true. Expensive projects usually allow the corrupt rich to steal money and most infrastructure projects are initiated by the government.

* China still has plenty of cheap labor. Cheap labor will be minor but education will be as they need to move to the next level of industrialization with higher values of products.

China has its own problems and plenty of them but demographics is not the major one to be concerned. Well, gender imbalance is one of them but there is why our Playboy magazine could be a good export. :)

Comparing India and China.

* Russia and Brazil still thrive on commodities and oil as long as global economy grows.

* Africa and some S. American countries. 
The explosive population will bring miseries to the world. They will have wars for food and lower life expectancy. They will migrate legally and illegally to rich countries like US. If the farming technology has not been improved to produce more food with less farm land, the world supply of food would have run out already and give rise to global famine.

* US 10 years later should look like Japan today as most developed countries will have the populations shrink to below 0 growth. However, US's black and Hispanics have a higher fertile rate and have larger immigrates than the world combined. US has its different problems/advantages as below.

- Welcome immigrants (opposite to Japan). Most qualified Indians are welcome and so are Chinese (who come for economical reasons, escaping from pollutions, corruption prosecutions...).

- Today's minorities (black and Hispanics) will become the majority. If you look at the high school graduation rate (40% dropout vs 25% for all), social welfare recipient %, prisoner %..., we do not have a bright future. These are facts and it would be offensive to you if you're black or Hispanic. 

- When we have jobs for every one, the larger population is an advantage. Not today that we have college graduates begging for any jobs and our social welfare are being depleted. We should have a boom in housing but it will not happen until most of us have a good job.

- The brightest future for us is the agriculture and the demand from many countries grows by leaps and bounds. The other is American culture like movies with English as the most popular language.


This is one of the 76 articles from my book "A Nation with No Losers'.

(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/23/12. Last updated in 5/23/12.


Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.

Spotting big market plunges

There are several ways to check the market turning from peak to bottom losing more than 40%. So, you may need different strategy for different market conditions. Here are some of my thoughts.

1. Market Cycle: Bottom, Recovery, Peak and Bottom again. When you're at the peak, watch out with stops and be conservative.

When every one is buying recklessly, making money and proclaiming they're geniuses, this is the hint. Another hint is: It happens about 3 years from the last bottom - very rough estimate and it is safer to say from 2 to 7 years.

Double recession (or W-shaped) seldom happens, but today (as of 7/19/21) there is a good chance when the government intervenes too much with bailout money and the EU crisis has not been resolved.

2. Use 50 week moving average like SPY or a total market ETF. If it is below, time to get out. You will still lose some, but you will lose less by getting out earlier than most. Technical Analysis is based on past data, so you cannot recover from past loss but could reduce further losses.

3. Trigger. The internet bubble is easy to spot, but not the last one on derivatives. Usually the particular sector of industries is over-priced. Those easy money will turn to big losses.

4. Newton's gravity law. In general, the market has to take a breather. When you do not see the normal two or three corrections in a year in a rising market, watch out for the bigger correction that will come unexpectedly.

When the market is moving from bottom to recovery, the profit is the largest and using bottom fishing strategies pay the best. Momentum pays from recovery to peak... My point is: Use the right strategy for the current market conditions.

It is a prediction and hope we've more rights than wrongs. The market acts just like a lady and not a rational one. If it is easy to predict, all of us are sipping some fancy drinks in some fancy islands served by some fancy ladies and there are no poor folks. Right?


(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/23/12. Last updated in 5/23/12.


Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision. 

Monday, May 21, 2012

Buy now?

Buy low and sell high always works.

The problem is how to define low and high. Here is how I define and could be very different from yours.

For low. Judging from the economic conditions, I put the worst bottom at 50% down (for recession) and 10% down (for correction) from our recent peak. If you believe you're 50% right in each scenario, start buy the good stocks at 10% less and some stocks at 50% less from their peak prices in equal amounts of your cash that you should have accumulated if you saw the correction was coming in late April.

Over-simplified for discussion. I have more orders at 15% off and so far none for 50% off as the chance of going to 50% is quite slim. At that time I would borrow money to buy stocks.

Again, market timing is not a science. The market could return to the peak tomorrow and I would lose all the buying opportunities and it could go to 75% down - then I would still lose a lot if I bought stocks at 50% discount. 


(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/21/12. Last updated in 5/21/12.


Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision. 

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Cisco and Huawei

Did Huawei steal Cisco's technology?
Do they pass info. to the Chinese government on sensitive data?

They're all unfounded accusations to fight competition. If the secrets can be stolen that easily, we'll have many companies like Huawei and Chinese should not buy products from Cisco for the same fear. Cisco is using this to protect its bidding from Huawei unfairly.

The fact is there is no trap door to steal data from the network. If there is one, a good percentage of the global traffic has to be routed via the Chinese equipment already. It is a fact that companies spy against each other, no matter it is a Chinese company or an American company. 

Cisco and its rival Huawei are riding on the economy. Hence I expect Cisco's stock price will fluctuate with today's range (as of 2012) and it will take off after 2 or 3 years hopefully when the global economy recovers. It will compete with Huawei as their research and manufacture costs are far lower than the US. Huawei's products are very competitive and will capture market shares outside US. The margin of the industry will still be favorable. 


(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/16/12. Last updated in 5/16/12.


Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision. 

Events and the market

My predictions:

* Global recession. Will start soon if not already. Will last for 2 more years. US will recover faster than EU, China and resource-rich countries like Canada, Australia and Brazil, and oil-producing countries.

* Tax increases in 2013. May not be an event that affects the market - will see.

* Obama will win but the congress will be controlled by Democrats. It means his tax policy will not be passed that easily.  By statistics, market is not up a lot in an election year and Democratic rule is better for the market. Republicans are pro business and pro tax cut. 

* End of 2 wars in 3 years. Will have a secular bull market after and until the next major war.

* Housing will be improved in 3 years with smaller houses and apartments. It will take that long to reduce the foreclosure properties and most potential new buyers are not financially ready to buy their first house due to poor job markets, and high loans (student and credit card).

* Demographics. More money will be spent on entitlements such as social security and Medicare. Japan's aging problem today is ours 10 years later. Can we tax the rich and workers to the max., or just continue to print money? If I were the politician, I would print money to buy votes.

May last for 20 years or forever as most developed countries do not have birth rates high enough to support a zero population. The poor countries like India and many in S. America will eat up the world resources. 


(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/16/12. Last updated in 5/16/12.


Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision. 

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Disputed islands

Any disputes could lead to wars. I hope the Chinese and the Japanese (and other neighbors too) will settle down diplomatically and hopefully both can drill on these waters. The disputed islands are closer to Taiwan than both.

The two A-bombs should have dropped in the Imperial Palace who started the criminal wars in WW2. However, this is the dispute from last generation and we should not pass our hatred to the next. Japan has suffered enough from the 3-3 disaster punishing the innocent current generation. This generation of Japanese are civilized and gain our respect not by showing how rich they're but how they behave.

Teresa Teng would be ashamed of us and her singing is the best way to build human relationship and melt all the hatred, distrust... - the worst of human behaviors.

Peace on earth!

The last 220 or so years China lost a lot of land to foreigners due to its weakness. It includes the outer Mongolia, a lot of land to Russia and even some to India. The whole China is almost ruled by Japan. Now the Chinese can defend herself, but I hope we learn from the Chinese saying: We should not do what we suffered from what others did to us (i.e. the brutal invasion by foreigners).

Monday, May 14, 2012

Tom Armistead's investment strategy

My investment philosophy has been shaped by reading Ben Graham, David Dreman, Phil Fisher, Ken Fisher, and John Neff, among others. I think that the small investor can outperform the major indices on a regular basis, provided he is willing to do the work and use some common sense and emotional control.

I make my selections by a combination of screening and listening to the recommendations of investors I respect. I complete a systematic review of 10 years of financial figures, using an Excel spreadsheet to ensure that I have looked at the required minimum amount of information. I rely primarily on 5 Year Average EPS and a 5 year history of Price/Sales Ratios. For candidates that look attractive on that basis, I read their financial statements and press releases at the SEC website. I compare them to their competitors and develop some familiarity with their industry and any company specific issues.

I look for Debt/Equity less than .35 and a strong cash flow. I spend some time on what management is doing with the cash flow. Some value candidates are simply underappreciated: however, many will have issues about slowing growth, shrinking margins, or difficult business conditions. My concern is to verify that management has an awareness of what the problems/opportunities are and a plan to resolve or capitalize on them, with sufficient resources to complete the task.

If I develop a favorable opinion, I initiate a position, usually 40% of my intended maximum, adding 2 more increments of 30% depending on price movements and the development of additional information. I start to exit when the stock goes over the midpoint of its price range as I compute it, or when I conclude that my original performance expectations will not be met.

The past ten years have been challenging. In early March 2009 I had the memorable experience of watching an account that had been worth more than my house dwindle to where it was worth maybe two cars. It has since recovered. In today’s market, I think many large, strong (and safe) companies are underappreciated – investors have been chasing more glamorous and risky fare.

My strategy: Selective Contrarian, along the lines suggested by David Dreman, meaning I make my selections from among stocks that are relatively low compared to their historical range or their sector averages on one or more the basic valuation metrics.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Are you a saver or a non-saveer?

A non-saver told me it was better to spend like no tomorrow and he was partially right.

When he works and saves, he would lose his free health care, food stamp, housing subsidy...

There are two kinds of folks: savers and non-savers. When we have too many non-savers, the government would run out of money to give freebies to non-savers as illustrated in Greece.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Tax avoidance

Tax avoidance is a good way to save some money legally. Some even went to the length to prolong life support for several weeks so to qualify better tax exemption the following year. Here are what I did.

- Sold most profitable stocks that I owned over 12 months in taxable accounts. I bought back some. I maintained a 15% tax bracket last year, so the tax bill from Uncle Sam is virtually 0 (virtually due to more  tax on social security if applicable).

I bet this is the same trick Ronney and Buffet used. This could be the last year for this low tax rates.

- Converted some money from 401K to Roth this year.

- Will sell some long term losers next year hoping to offset some gainers.

- Unloaded/moved some dividend stocks to 401K from taxable accounts.

- Gifted my son some appreciated stocks.


(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/10/12. Last updated in 5/10/12.


Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision. 

Modern Portfolio Theories

Most fund managers learn modern portfolio theories from Ivy League universities. The theories are faulted. However, some gained Nobel prizes using faulted theories - a bad reflection of today's silly Nobel prize committee. They do not work in real life and I and many others have proved them wrong many times in real life.

The so-called modern portfolio theories are most likely based on bad testing parameters/assumptions. Unfortunately they're still supported by the ivory towers. All the students taking these courses should ask for refunds from these universities. Most likely these professors are driving an old Toyota and have never made good money in the market besides in 'teaching', selling 'books' and/or running hedge funds to cheat your money.


(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/10/12. Last updated in 5/10/12.


Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision. 

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Our trade with China

Free trade has its benefits and some minor disadvantages (less jobs to our workers for example). You do not want to grow sugar cane in Alaska. Chicken feet are delicacy in 
China, but not fit even for our cattle. 

However, we have to ensure both partners play fairly. If China dumps the products to force our shops to close and then raise prices, then we have to step in. We are subsidizing our industries like free research and farm loans, so it is quite hard to argue that China subsidizes their industries.

When China offers the cheapest and the best product, our consumers win. When China makes money on the low-end products, they may have money to buy our more expensive products, farm products...

China buys our debts to stimulate buying their products so to keep their workers working. The debt obligation is less when we devalue our own currency - actually we're the currency manipulator while China just tags to our currency for now.

We need to limit our spending, both the government (on wars...) and consumers (on big houses...). The logic is so simple that even I can understand - I never took any economic class. 


(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/09/12. Last updated in 5/09/12.


Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision. 

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Life according to A + B

Man with money      + Man with power          = Corruption

Man with money     + Woman with good look = Perfect Match 

Man with no money + Woman with good look = Divorce 

Man with no money + Woman with avg.  look = Endless Love

Man with big belly   + Woman with same       = Mission Impossible 
  (in making a baby)

Israel                      + Neighbors                   = Endless Wars

Israel                      + USA                           = WW3 

China                      + USA                           = Fighting spouse

One Loser               + One Loser                    = Two Losers
  (merger of two failing companies)

Youth                     + Stupidity                     = One page of our life  

Old Age                  + Intelligence                  = One chapter of our life  

Queen                    + Waving hand               = Parasite

Smart   + Hard Work  + Luck                       = Success 

Success - Hard Work                                   = Genius

Are investors parasites to the socety?

First most of our initial investment money is from hard-earned money during our work life unless you're lucky to have inheritance.

The retired rich could live in a decent life with the money accumulated. However, we invest for better return for ourselves, work our own way (vs paying mutual fund managers to do so), take some risk ourselves... We do not think we're the parasites of the society. Our investment would help some business grow. They pay taxes and hire workers who in turn pay taxes. We also pay taxes too on our profits as investors.

I used the word of parasite to describe the royal families of Britain and Japan, which both had done great misery to China in Opium Wars and WW2 respectively. I never call investors as 'parasites'. There are many to learn to be a good investor (I'm still learning).

If we live to 70s or 80s, we will still be physically able to work on my investment, but most can't as a laborer. Hence, we will contribute to societies longer as a group. 

Similarly, it is unfair for the hard-working, rich folks less chance going to heaven than the lazy, welfare recipients whose majority are the parasites of the society. 


(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/5/12. Last updated in 5/5/12.


Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision. 

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Is Social Security going to survive?

Contrary to popular belief, SS will not run out of cash. The politicians will not allow so otherwise they'll not be re-elected. Some simple steps:

1. Move money from the budget or just print more money.

2. Tax more like the coming extra for Medicare from your pay check.

3. Immigrate more young and hard working foreigners. Ensure you do not let their parents come in to collect SSI.

4. Reduce the aged population with fast food deals for seniors, early bird specials, more legalized drugs specific for seniors, unlimited alcohol for seniors (a stone killing seniors in the car and others in the street),  guns for recreation for seniors, free sex for folks over 70 every night at all senior centers... 

As long as they die happy, every one is happy.

5. Incentive to die early. If they suffer, let them die peacefully. Give them tax credit on estate to die below their life expectancy. How about one extra percent exemption for each year below life expectancy? There is a lot of saving if we can cut the most expensive health care in the last two years for most.

6. Give seniors Viagra free. It will make prostitutes fully employed with new customers from that age group. It is a promise that Obama could not accomplish except by his 'body' guards (whose body?) - foreign employment does not count! Excessive exercise will end their lives earlier and happily. A personal observation.

7. Write to Dr. Ruth for more practical solutions.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Advantages of Technical Analysis

* The Institution (insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds...) uses it and they MOVE the market.

* I do know some folks make big money with TA.

* The price movement usually tells the reasons why it moves and volume confirms it. There are many factors not shown in the financial statement such as lawsuits pending, market trend, competition...

* It tracks the last two big plunges (2000-2002 and 2007) pretty well. They will not warn you for the upcoming plunge (as they depend on past data) but they warn you on potential, bigger lose.

My experience is to use it to track the market and specific stocks you want to trade. The stock moves due to the market, then the industry the stock in and then the fundamentals of the stock.

I invest longer term in taxable accounts (holding profitable stocks over 1 year) and a swing trader for retirement accounts. My objective is to make money at the least risk. There is no label on what kind of investor I am. Same as political party or a religious group. Once you're in certain group, you will be biased and forget your primary objective in investing. 


(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/1/12. Last updated in 5/1/12.


Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.