Monday, December 10, 2018

Lazy man's market timing

From my book "Profit form the coming market crash":

Sound Advice Risk Indicator


We only invest in stocks or real estates in a crude sense. This indicator comparing the allocations between these two investments has been quite successful. When we invest too much in the stock market instead of real estates, we will expect a market crash. When this index hit 2 as in 1906, 1928, 1937 and 1965, we had market crashes at all these times. Today (12/2018), we have similar warning. Use Google to search for articles mentioning this indicator. Here is one of many.

Buffett’s Equity to GDP


It measures the value of the market. It has been quite successful. Google for the current value. Advisor Perspectives may have this value and many insights on the current market. It will not detect the peaks and bottoms as no one can consistently. About a third of S&P earnings come from abroad. Hence it boosts market cap but doesn’t include those countries’ GDP. It is a major fault.

Lazy man’s market timing


Sound Advice Risk Indicator, Equality to GDP, Inverted Interest Curve and Death Cross make up the lazy man’s market timing. Google for the current values of the four. If you cannot get the last one, calculate it from finviz.com.




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For more of my reasoning, check out the book described next. It has 950 pages (6*9) for $9.99. It could be the best $10 you ever spend.

The above is an abstract from my book "Complete the Art of Investing" which is available from Amazon.



I challenged to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 5 or more stocks in one year after the publish date. The concepts for that article are discussed in this book.

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Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Business news


Postal rate

I was told there is a postal agreement that makes the postal rate from China to US less than within the US. That’s why you can order something from Chinese website for low postal fees.

Cash in brokerage account

My brokerage account has two basic choices: Money Market (1.9% interest) and Cash (0% interest). If you open the account, I bet they use Cash for their advantage. A simple phone call could save you some money and my son’s account.

P/E at 15?

“Buy stocks with P/E below 15” is not true for many cases. P/E growth (PEG) should be considered at least and then the prospect of the company. Many retailers were destroyed by Amazon and many newspapers were destroyed by Facebook and Google. Which sector you want to buy even one sector has a better P/E?

Most old books on value are based on old industries that are no longer applicable in today's market. Read these books but ask the above question.

More on P/E

Yes, P/E is the most popular metric but it is not the only metric to evaluate a company. Here are some comments without referring to my book “Complete the art of investing” for more detail arguments.

·         P/E is one fundamental metrics but there are many to consider such as Debt / Equity. A company can boost down P/E by borrowing a lot of money such as Campbell.
·         P/E is a fundamental metric but not a momentum metric. Short-term wise it may not do you any good. Need patience for fundamentals as you are swimming against the tide. Check out the fundamentals of FAANG stocks a year ago (I did in August, 2017 from my memory and published it in my blog) and the performances were doing great one year later but I bet not too good today. Hence the holding period for momentum of these stocks at this time is one year and the fundamentals show up adversely after one year so far.
·         Forward P/E is better in valuing the stock than P/E.
·         In March, 2009, P/Es for most companies were very poor. However, it was the best time to buy stocks. I made 80% in my largest taxable account for the year. "E"s, the earnings, for most stocks were rising fast.

I did write an SA article on P/E a long while ago.

P/E for the market such as using SPY indicates the market is over-valued today (25 vs. the average of 15). However, it has been so for years and this condition could linger on for a while as technically the market is still sound. When the technical tanks, most if not all stocks will tank too regardless of P/Es.

I do not BS but have run many tests from a historical database and documented in the above book.

CENX

CENX is very responsive to the trade war. Buy when it is 5% down and sell (or sell short) when it is 5% up. Will test it out with a historical database sometimes.

5G for US

March 2019 will not be the date. You need to set up the network first and then the phones. Judging to our late entry to 4G, we may be one generation behind China, S. Korea and Japan. There are more in 5G than just the speed.

Robin Hood

US presence in the Pacific is no longer needed except protecting Japan and S. Korea who are wealthy than us. Robin Hood in reverse (steal from the poor US citizens and give to the wealthy)?

With today's missiles and submarines, Pacific is no longer the first 'virtual' border to protect.

Just me

Imports from Canada cannabis companies will be banned by the US. Where there is easy money to be made, why invite foreigners?

I stay away from these industries. I do not want to count money with hands dripping with blood. Just me.

CDs

CDs has to reach 3% rate to beat inflation. Even for that the average investor has to pay income taxes.

Do you want to buy a one-year CD or 3-year CD? After one year, the rate may be raised and you lose the rate increase for the next two years for a 3-year CD. Tricky calculation.

Inverse yield curve

The inverse yield curve (short-term rate is higher than long-term rate) is one hint of market going to crash. My calculation is a passing grade but one source said it was very close. The difference could be which rates they're using. I used 1-month Treasury rate and 30-year Treasury rate.

Business news today

We expected there is a rate hike and the market is expected to react that way.

Listened to Trump's funny speech. Please behave presidentially. We do not have a good one since Reagan. Sigh!
Sep 27, 2018. 08:12 AMLink

Politics and the market

Politics and the market are interdependent.

Bankrupted company

The investor has a tax credit for the stock losing all value. Harder to imagine but negative income carried forward is an asset too.

Why old books on value investing do not apply

Google and Facebook destroy many newspapers while Amazon destroys many retailers. It is due to technology revolution, internet in this case.

Most if not all the books on value investing worked ONLY in traditional industries such as auto and soft drink. That's why these followers do not favor high tech companies. An SA article buying stocks with P/E below 15 is wrong to me. If it included PEG and debt/equity, then I buy the idea more. It is easy to prove it with a historical database for the last 10 years. I did a long while ago.

GE

GE is my recent biggest mistake. Some of the metrics did not tell the fundamentals of the company in this case.

Will a change of CEO make the company more profitable? It was up by 7% for this reason.

Italy

I have warned Italy before together with Spain.

The problem is Euro. It is a great idea for tourists but a big hole for the participating countries to take advantage of it.
If Greece had its own currency, it would recover faster by attracting tourists and cheaper products for export. Oct 2, 2018.

Is it time to short stocks?

The market is over-valued. Dusted off the searches to short stocks. TLRY appeared several times / screens and most resulted in huge losses for shorters. New businesses (marijuana in the case) are risky. Some will be acquired by established companies who know how to market the products. I will not invest in this business but short the stocks.
Oct 3, 2018.

Mergers

The former New England Tel used to have the best compensation package with bonus and/or options to many management employees. The more mergers they have, the worse is the compensation.

When the companies merge, they have excess employees due to cutting down duplicated functions such as the accounting department. Employees esp. the non-union workers fight for survival and tend to settle for lower compensation. Supply and demand at work?
Oct 12, 2018. 07:45 AMLink

Outsourcing

Vietnam yes but not to India. India needs to fix many problems such as stable supply of electricity before it will be considered.

We can have a work-visa program to attract workers from Mexico. I bet many foreign workers working in cleaning malls and fast food joints are illegals. Otherwise they will not work but enjoy the generous welfare.
Oct 12, 2018. 07:34 AMLink

The 5.3% plunge in 2 days

The interest rate should not cause the market crash (down by 40% from top to bottom). The margin is a record high. The trade war is a concern too.

Here is my analysis on the market.
Oct 11, 2018. 08:51 AMLink

New business

TLRY, a Canadian cannabis company, showed up several times in my short screens and made some profits for investors but a nightmare for shorters. I did not touch it as a new company did not have enough historical data today. Folks are buying for the perspective.

How to get rid of our farm products

We can sell them to another country which in turn sells them to China. A win-win!

Sears

Sears had its dead-cat-bounce moments. Every time I was jealous of Lampert, not any more. I wrote that Sears should get rid of all the loser businesses except Kenmore, lawn mowers and snow blowers.

GE

Boeing is doing well but not GE. I wonder the cost percent of the GE engine to the entire plane.

7 years for CDs is too long

If we have a crash, the market would recover in 3 years at most. Hence, you may run out of cash to return to stocks.

I have laddered CDs maturing at different periods, so I should not run out of cash in a period of 3 months.

Just check with my brokerage account. There are basically 3 types of cash accounts (more if you have $100,000 cash): Cash (no dividend), Government Money Market (1.07% as of 10/2018 from my broker) and Money Market (1.27%). Today you should choose the latter one from the above three. There is no tax advantage for Government Money Market fund in your retirement accounts.

Some credit unions offer far better rates. I am a preferred customer (or sucker), my bank matches CD rates from my broker. It has several advantages: do not have to wait to start CD, Mass. special tax treatment for local banks... Just waste time to file paperwork at the bank even the consultant is eye candy.

Trade war

The trade war with the US is not a big blow to China so far. It is a tariff to consumers.  It will escalate to a military war at all. Actually the trade war is beneficial to China in the long run. After the Tiananmen incident, US and the EU have embargo on selling weapons to China. As a result, China develops their own weapons (some are stolen or reverse engineered). Russia's defense industry depends on China more than before. China can defend herself easily today.

The trigger to a war could be the events the leaders (both US and China) cannot resolve such as impeachment of Trump to diverge our attention. Wag the dog! It could be miscalculations and misinterpretations by both sides. Wars have no winners!

A trade war could trigger a military war, but there are few examples. The last big one is the Opium Wars where 8-nation alliance helped the Brits to push opium to China. Was this alliance good guys?

The chance of a nuclear war is higher when the conflict is between two nuclear powers. From the cold war, we did not have one but we had many instances that could trigger a nuclear war to destroy the world by man-made mistakes. Hawaii's faulty warning system is one such instance.

For the investors. If they have a war, the market would tank.
Oct 4, 2018. 12:44 PMLink

How to deal with China


I have suggested how we should deal with the rising China and here is my brief summary. Patriots’ head coach and the book of War of Arts offer some good hints even in today’s world.

·         Better engage than offend China. Need to understand China more.
·         China will reunite with Taiwan. It is a matter of time. I hope they will do it peacefully. We have a dilemma with Taiwan but I believe US will not go to a military war.
·         Hope China will settle peacefully with the disputed islands.
·         We need to invest in our economy (starting with infrastructure) and fund college researches. Without a robust economy, we would become a paper tiger.
·         Many are still living in denial. Fortunately our leaders and the defense industry (for their benefits) recognize China is rising fast both in military and economy.
·         We need to continue to attract top scientists and engineers outside USA. Otherwise we would lose our leads in many sectors.
·         We need to provide adequate security to our secrets. Our secrets of many advanced weapons have been stolen.

What are the damages from a war between US and China

Vietnam War is the second longest war in recent history. US has the most powerful air weapons and money to carpet bombing Vietnam. Vietnam won. You can only win the war by foot soldiers.

The Middle East wars are the longest in our history. In the desert air control is critical. However, we are still not winning war in Afghan.

We fought and are fighting for corrupt countries. Both our economy and military resources have been drained.
 
Both US and China assume the war between them would be brief and less damaging. The possibility of a war lasting for a long time is high with two major powers. The worst case is when one is losing fast, one might use nuclear weapons to turn around the situation.