Monday, October 31, 2011

A Nation of No Losers

* A Nation of No Losers *

We do not let you be a loser!
Your mistakes will be rewarded handsomely.

When you bought a mansion that you cannot afford, we're going to bail you out.
When you bought a clunker that you should not have, we give you $4,500.
When you bought any inefficient appliance or anything, we'll pay you no matter how old they are.
When you returned an old gun, we give you money for a better, updated gun so you can kill more.
When you lost your job, we extend your benefit.
When you cannot pay your college loan, we will give you amnesty.
When you ran out of money for Christmas gifts, we give you 2% payroll tax reduction.

When you do not have saving, we give you free health care.
When you have saving or a job, we take your health care away.
You die penniless, we help you out.
You die with millions, we share your wealth.

Teenagers, the more babies you have, the more benefits you have. Keep them coming.
Drunk drivers, no one will prosecute you as the entire jury and even the judge are drunk.
Rapists, you’re in good company of our politicians, coaches and clergymen who rape and cheat as a glorious sport.
Druggists, as long as you do not inhale, you’re still a no-loser.
Old ladies, your driver's license is also a license to kill.
Black kids, we give you special pass to go to college and jobs.
Congressmen, insider trading is legal to your privileged group.
Lobbyists, we can add import taxes on Chinese products that your industries cannot compete.
Prisoners, you will get the flu shots first and free dental care. If your local jails are full, we beg you to leave with free transportation.
Baby killers, we give you a movie/book deal to give you incentive to kill your next baby.
Altar boys, you could be the top 1%.
Fatsos, do not worry. Our up-coming drugs will melt all your fat while you sleep.
At the mean time, we double all seat sizes in buses, airplanes..., triple size the value meals and replace the slim actors with fatsos to make you look like a no-loser.

All athletes are rewarded with millions for taking drugs.
We’re outrageous on foreign athletes doing same.
It is an American invention and how dare you copy it without paying us royalty!

No other developed country lets their citizens own guns.
NRA and his puppet politicians will give you millions of funny 'reasons' like the only efficient way to control population.

When you cheated billions, you can retire in a resort-like 'prison'.
Also, the billions your wife hid is hers - no questions asked.

When your company fails, we bail it out.
The executives are rewarded with bailout money for bringing down a company.
When your company is failing, we give you half a billion – what a country!!!

The small catch.
We need your vote to re-elect us in 4 years.

The children cannot vote today, so let's pass our debts to them.
China does not have a voice here, so let's pass all the blames to them.

Even the entire world agree with us.
Our president was awarded the Nobel prize for doing nothing but reckless spending, so why you need to work hard and save?

I wonder why.

Even with insurance, I pay a lot for doctor visits while the poor get it free.

The well-dressed lady in front of the check-out-line bought expensive meat using food stamp that I could not afford.

The ‘disabled’ youngsters spend all their time fixing up their motor bikes.

My friend's late father-in-law could not afford to go to nursing home while the poor get it free, and he paid a million or so for his estate tax.

The above serves as a wakeup call/satire/joke and nothing more. It is written by the 'winner' who actually is a loser.

(c) TonyP4 2008-2012

Trade by headlines

When it rains in Brazil, buy coffee futures.

Recently, it rains too much in SE Asia, so buy rice futures. I do not trade futures, so I miss the opportunity and unfortunately there is no equivalent ETF.

However, I benefit on two major trades as follows.

A magazine article pointed out coal should be bottomed but it could have another 20% down. I placed 5 orders and 4 got executed. I had to dip into my credit line. Made $5,000 on the same day. My theory: retail investors and hedge fund managers read the same article, but acted later the day - all the meetings with their wives and fellow managers caused them some change. I made about 22% average on the 4 stocks in two weeks as of last Friday.

Update as of 4/ 26/12. The coal stocks did not do well. The run up could be due to the magazine article.

Another article from the same magazine said same on copper and FCX. I placed the order but copper was up by 8% on Monday. Hence I did not get the order executed. Once a while a market order is good.

On the same week, CROX lost almost 40% in one day. I bought some and made about 10% profit today by selling it. CROX's fundamentals are no good and it does have the history of roller coaster ride in its stock price.

I predict the 4 coal stocks have a long way to realize its potential value, so I keep them. It could be a year, two or even three years.

This style of investing is trade by headlines. I practiced it before and more today. The market currently favors this style to me for the following reasons.

* The market is volatile.
* Retail investors are willing to get rid of the losers for year-end tax planning.
* Fund managers use it for window dressing.
* Investors are not rational and follow the market blindly.
* We have so many good news and bad news.
* The media influence the market.

I've missed applying the same trick to the rise of Apple. I should have bought the stocks of its part suppliers. Hope learn it and take advantage of future similar circumstances.

(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 10/31/11. Updated 04/26/12.

Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Repeat and repeat

I posted the following again and again.

Some of the posts do not stick with facts. When you belong to a political party, your points are twisted to what your political party wants you to say.

* A full-scale trade war with China would bring us to another recession for sure and China would pull out the 1.3 trillions of the government debts. Our farmers are making good profits from China esp. when they start to export rice.

Click here for potential trade war with China.

Most have the myth that China stole all our jobs. Those are manufacturing jobs with low pays and India and the other low-wage countries would take China's place. Western Europe is our competitors with same high tech products.

It is quite easy for the politicians to unload all our problems to China as they cannot fix our problems.

* We have 1% richest folks and 45% do not pay income taxes. I and most of you belong to the 54%. The 1% are the investors and they will invest the money where the profits are better as most of us do in investing. At worst, we could kill the goose that lays the golden eggs or they survive by flying to other countries with lower taxes.

Small businesses are not hiring as they cannot foresee the economy and would be penalized for the unemployed workers, not to mention the uncertainty of the ObamaCare.

Currently, US is not a good place to invest with high corporate taxes, regulations and high labor costs. The root of our problem is the expensive wars we cannot afford and we do not live within our means. Government is buying our votes and it does not take a rocket engineer (now most are unemployed) to figure it out.

Click here for 'Democracy leads to socialism'.

The government should improve our economy and treat it as a long-term agenda. Entitlements should be cut. If you lose your free health care by taking a job, you will not work.

Friday, October 21, 2011


All nations except the involved should keep away from the Middle East conflict. WW3 will be most likely started in Middle East. The Bible says Israel will be surrounded by enemies. Israel is doing fine to protect herself with the jet fighters that are very useful in the desert. Let US, EU, China… isolate themselves from the conflict.

If it is about oil, shame on us. If it is a prolonged Crusade, shame on the misinterpretation of the religion and the Jews who control the US congress and drive us to the conflict.

A nasty joke:
The terrorist would go to heaven and is promised to have 6 virgins (need one day for rest). However, the fine print does not include the quality, age and the reasons they're virgins all their earthly lives of the virgins. As in their culture, female terrorists get nothing.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Outrage over toddler run over by vans followed by passers-by not helping

It made to the prime news in US. Very sad!!! This is not an isolated incident that I want to believe.

It is the worst of public behavior in a civilized society. I try to find answers.

1. It could be the product of lack of education due to the Cultural Revolution. The parents without good education would have strong effect on the current generation. My theory anyway.

Definitely demonstrates our failure of education and lack of general awareness on how to react in such situations. Education is not just a tool to get a good job, but also teaches us how to be a good human being and a good citizen.

2. It could be our culture. Do you remember the poem roughly translated as follows? Only sweep the snow from your doorstep and do not care much about the snow flake on the roof of your neighbor’s house.

3. Most likely it is the publicized cases that the Samaritans were punished. The judge who ordered the Samaritan to pay the expenses for helping an old lady who fell should be prosecuted. The judge could have no training and could be the result of Cultural Revolution. I bet China will set up laws to protect Samaritans.

Also, why did the parents let the kid running around?

When I watched how the passers-by moved the guy under a burning car in US risking their lives, I asked myself would I do it myself. The answer is a shameful ‘no’. In US, their insurance companies tell the doctors do not help a dying stranger in the street as it would cost an expensive lawsuit. So, it is not a China-only problem.

In the old days, I bet it had happened many times but they were never publicized. When we do not know the events, we never find ways to fix the problem.

Another instance that internet and the surveillance cameras (though I do not like it myself) could change the public behavior of a nation. We do not gain respect on how rich we are but how we behave in public. The child did not die for nothing if we can learn our lesson and set up laws to ensure it will never happen again.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Protest due to income disparity

If you work hard and/or take chances to profit from investment, you're entitled to have good wealth.

If you are lazy, collect entitlements, take drugs, and drop out from high school, you're entitled to be poor.

The rich and the poor have one vote each, and the politicians are buying votes so they will take care of the poor at first glance. However, the politicians have to satisfy first the special groups who pay their campaigns.

When the protesters are not against wars in Middle East, I conclude they bark at the wrong tree. It is the wars that drive us into recession. I feel sorry for the unemployed and in particular to the fallen heroes. However, I do not feel sorry for the prolonged welfare recipients.

You know who suffer most for the bankers' greed that caused this recession. The rich who own most of the bank stocks. Who is negligent? The government for not setting up/enforcing corrective regulations. Who are guilty? The bank management who tried to make money for the bank and their own bonuses. Also, the government and those of us who do not live within their means.

It seems it is representation without taxation. 45% of us do not pay any income tax. I'm not saying the poor should not have the right to vote, but the long-term welfare recipients should not have this right.

When you're born in the wealthy US, you're not entitled to be lazy and collect welfare for life and/or have a good job after college. If we cut down the entitlements of teenage mothers, I bet we'll not have the multi generations of teenage mothers and hence less single-parent families.

If we set up the entitlement system correctly so you do not lose your free health care when you work, I bet we will have more folks working in place of illegals.

The rich should pay their fair share. We do not want to drive them out to other countries with lower taxes. We encourage the rich to invest here by fair tax treatment (with less entitlements and ending the two idealistic wars). They are investors like we're. You do not want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.

I do not belong to any political party. I believe to help the poor by teaching them how to fish but not giving them fish everyday. The young kids fixing their bikes all day long should go to work, so are thousands of 'disabled' workers collecting disability social security!!!!

Our political system is leading to socialism and self destruction. Click here for details.

From the return of the stock market in last 3 years, you cannot get rich by investing. I still wonder why the rich increase their wealth that much in the same period. Did they trade with insider's info? If so, our enforcement is too ineffective. I just smell something is wrong with corruption.

On the second thought, globalization may have widened the wealth gap. Yesterday's jobs/services offered by lower society are being replaced by workers overseas.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Trade War with China

If our politicians had 1/1000 of the brain of Steve Jobs, we would be in better shape. Recently they accuse China for depreciating the currency. We will not gain anything, but lose a lot.

* From recent history, China will retaliate like stopping our export of chicken feet, a delicacy over here but not fitted to feed our cows. Not to mention selling them airplanes and other farm products.

However, we started the trade war first by new taxes on Chinese tires and solar panels via the lobby groups/special interest groups. China retaliated with import cars... Our politicians always seek short-term solutions to satisfy certain groups or groups paying them money.

China is the best of the cheap labor countries, but there are many who will take China's place and we do NOT gain any job. The $20 wage will never compete with a $2 wage.

* China will not care about our economy if we do not allow their import. To pull back the trillions of debt is a no brainer to them. Again, our politicians have less than 1/1000 of the brain of Steve Jobs, and stupid folks will do stupid things.

* We hypocritically depreciate our USD by QE1, 2, and potentially 3. Hence, we try to lower our debt burden.

* It hurts US in the future by forcing a lot of pro US decision makers in China losing power/positions. Do you remember the Chinese missile scientist was falsely accused of being a communist and was forced to return to China and became the father of Chinese missiles? History is repeating itself.

The silly politicians insult our intelligence by blaming all our ills on China as they cannot fix our problems. They want to be re-elected and we should never fall into their stupid trap. We are not as stupid as our leaders as it would start the double dip recession.

(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 10/7/11. Updated 10/7/11.

Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.

What China can learn from Steve Jobs

Is SJ a product of the education system of last generation that encourages folks to think outside the box, to be innovative… We need one or two geniuses out of a million for these innovative products/inventions.

Hope China will have more of these geniuses and move up to higher value products and assemble our own versions of iPod, iPhone…that are invented in China.

SJ did not graduate from college, so was Bill Gates. It could be a waste of time for geniuses to go to traditional colleges. Education starts in the family and carries to high school. Well, the 3 pillars of success to me are: genes, hard working and some luck/opportunities. SJ and BG have all 3.

The environment provides important hands to nurture creativity for innovation and enterprise. Protecting intelligent properties is the key too, otherwise we just copy others’ ideas if there is no law enforcement.

China lacks such environment now but it is changing as the country develops further. China has schools for geniuses (not as established as in US) and I hope they’re admitted due to IQs instead of the wealth/power of their parents.

SJ demonstrates we can get up from failure and it could be the best opportunity in life. It is harder today to do same in China.

(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 9/3/11. Updated 9/3/11.

Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.

Market today from my crystal ball

The perfect storm with the following unknowns:

* Portugal, Spain and Italy could follow Greece. They are far larger than Greece.
Click here for detail.

* Trade war with China over currency.
Can we afford to have a trade war with China and take the risk of China pulling out their huge debt from us?
Click here for detail.

If one of the above two happens, we will see Dow below 9000. Otherwise it will cruise between 10,500 and 11,500.

When it goes up to 12,500, I'll sell most of my stocks as the roots of our problems have not been resolved.

If you believe we'll have a good Q3 earning announcements, year-end rally, huge cash held by corporations, and/or there are signs the wars are ending, you may want to act accordingly. I've started buying selectively and it could be the best time for a while for some stocks that have been beaten down badly.

My crystal ball is as good as yours.

(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 10/7/11. Updated 10/24/11.

Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

China and political systems

China has a very unique political system. You can call it socialism with Chinese characteristics or capitalism with Chinese characteristics, or whatsoever. The president appears to be the most powerful person, but a handful of members control the power and the succession of presidency.

It will be debated endlessly on the benefits and the problems of such a system. Judging from what China has done in last 30 years, we have to agree it is not a bad system. When this political party is looking for the long term of the country, we do not care how to get re-elected by buying votes to satisfy all.

Judging from the medical care system and contrary to popular belief, Canadians are communists, US are socialists, and China are capitalists.

Every one in Canada gets the same, free health care. In China, if you do not pay, you die.

China is unique in the scale and the speed of moving to a developed country. Many countries like US and China’s competitors are caught by surprise and fail to respond to the changes. China can produce a product far cheaper than from Mexico several miles away from US. China is also challenging the products of higher value in our generation and I cannot imagine what the educated, hard working Chinese kids will do when they grow up.

Singapore is very unique. It is democratic with single party, but you will be punished for not flushing the toilets (they have cameras every where). If you’re not fit, they will force you to exercise or else.

India has been democratic for many years. They are still poor, uneducated… Democratic system may not be right for countries with low literary skills. How can we weigh the vote from a farmer who cannot read and one from the educated folk in the city? Most ‘democratic’ countries in Asia are corrupt. S.Korea and Japan are not too corrupt and probably the reason is their education levels.

What I try to say is every country is different from other countries. Two democratic countries like US and India are quite different in many aspects.

Click here for "Democratic system could lead to socialism".

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Democracy leads to socialism?

I heard more folks talking about it. It is what is happening in Greece today and to some extend in US.

The major flaw of the US political system is the re-election in 4 years. Our leaders do not plan or care about the long term. We've more poor than the rich and each has one vote. However, after they've been elected, they have to pay back to the special interest groups (such as no gun control) that have funded their campaigns. That's why democratic system always leads to corruption and self destruction.

Politicians have to watch out for the benefits/welfare of the poor in order to buy votes. The rich will migrate to other countries with less taxes, and be rewarded for their investment and taking risks. So are the corporations moving jobs and investments overseas. We have to blame ourselves as we vote to elect our leaders.

Most of the recent protesters in Wall Street belong to the unemployed and the 40% (excluding the unemployed due to our economic mess) of the citizens who pay no Federal taxes. It is some kind of taxation without representation in reverse. They should take minimal paid jobs (that are taken by illegals today), give back their entitlements... They are taking more from the society than giving back.

Greece has been illustrated this concept thoroughly. Democratic system esp. the rich ones could lead to socialism/corruption, and socialism/corruption in turn could lead to self destruction. With the world interconnected, it could lead to global recession.

Obviously non-democratic systems could also lead to socialism, which in turn could lead to capitalism with corruption too.

Click here on "China and Political Systems".

Saturday, October 1, 2011

China's space station

First congratulations to China. It has to be supported by many high technologies, so it does polish the image of China Inc.

Besides the prestige, it is not a lot to be gained from the investment that US and Russia have found out. What do you gain from a journey to Mars? We have a lot to be done in planet earth like pollution, food, product safety/quality… Hope China will keep the space exploration to a minimum but never terminate it so we can all dream. Never use the station for military purpose.

Space exploration has no defined benefits. So are many pure research in many areas. We can learn from the history of the US space program.

* What are the new products invented due to the US space program? There are some but not profitable compared to the cost of the program.

Most technologies in consumer electronic products are invented in US, but Japan and now Korea take them to the market and benefit from them.

* Shuttle (a good program in concept but not practical in the start) and the space station is a waste of money and again which products are developed due to these two programs and how many obsolete/disabled satellites have been retrieved? US gambled too much on the shuttle program and abandoned the rocket vehicle.

* Our government just pretty much shuts down our space program. Remember it is the turtle who wins the race. Being a developing country, China could be the only country having a space station by 2020. Incredible?

Chinese are far behind from US/west in space exploration. However, if you consider this program is only about 10 years old (longer depending on how you determine the start date), the progress is astonishing, so we cannot say China is 50 years behind.  Another argument is that shooting down a satellite that US could not do 50 years ago.

Although US/west do not share the technologies such as the docking with China, many components such as computer chips are more advanced than 50 years ago.

We should not start a cold war in space program with China. We still decades ahead of China. However, we're cutting funds and China is moving forward. China has not say a word on the superiority in space program. Most of us know that and Chinese know that. It will take a larger rocket to life tons of space station to space.

Many space scientists lose their jobs and their desire in fund cutting and many students lose their dreams.  It is our policy keep on changing every 4 or 8 years. We've gambled too much on the shuttle and lost that's ok but not with the changing policy.

A good link.

The song is clearly American the Beautiful. It is not the first time that CCTV screws up.

Resume from an unemployed NASA researcher:

Years of valuable, classified experience. PhD and considered to be the top scientist in the world. Abandoned by my country due to poor management and stupid politics. Will work for peanuts in any place in this planet and beyond. Desperate, proud, dedicated, heart-broken, patriotic but confused. Screwed by my ex company's office politics, ambitious but not practical objectives, kiss-ass leadership... Reply to my broken trailer or see me, an old man with thick glasses, carrying a sign asking for a dollar in the highway leading to the Cape's deserted launch pad.