Thursday, February 11, 2016

The fisherman and the sea

I have bought several high-value stocks. However, the smart fisherman (investor) would not venture out (buy stocks) to the stormy sea (the risky market) according to the weather forecast (technical indicator).

Recently I evaluated 10 stocks. The best return is GPRO about 10% up in two or three weeks but the rest are losers. I prefer to rise with the tide.

Comments on today's financial news


* 2015 ( and 2016 likely) is the year when the stock pickers died. Ackman is the latest casualty. I had published a book on Buffett 3 years ago not to invest with the legend (esp. past legend). The readers would have avoided the poor returns. I had many ridicules on it and now who is laughing (or crying)?
* There was a star in a hedge fund one year and next year he had to be let go due to poor performance. My theory: If they reached the top, they must have taken excessive risk. It is the same for most stock competitions. That's why turtle investors win the race.
* Cisco stocks were given to my grand children for long-term holds. It was recommended in my SA article that I claimed to have the best one-year performance for 5 or more stocks. Any challenge?
* I followed Mylan due to its rise. I did not invest on it. Their concept of generic drugs can be copied. The new acquisitions are poison pills to prevent hostile takeovers. When the music ends and there is no chair available, they fall.**C

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Trump's Great Wall

Obviously Trump has not read my book.

There is no need to build a wall. You just punish the employers for hiring illegals (it is illegal to hire illegals). However, you need to make the able welfare recipients to take those jobs no one wants but the illegals.

Some business man (not me) will blow up one part of the wall and charge $100 per head to enter this land of opportunity or just dig a small tunnel to bypass the wall. Trump, tell me how you trump it.

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Monday, February 8, 2016

Economy Cycle 102

More jobs = Good economy = Hike interest rate = Bad market = Less consumer spending = Fewer jobs =Bad market = Lower interest rat = Good market = More jobs...

Comments on today's financial news

* China may buy VV's truck division. They bought Volvo but it does not include truck division I bet. They can build everything up to par in a car except the engine and transmission.
* It is a good acquisition for Verizon. However, you need a lot of clean up. Yahoo's best idea is investing Alibaba and the one who made this decision was kicked out. it tells a lot on the company.
* I do not believe India has enough middle class to afford iPhones. I hope to see their market report. Quantity vs quality or short term vs long term. So far Apple made many good decisions on China so I do not bet against them.
* Do you know you can get double the money in Argentina for your USD in the black market?
* PR is a hopeless case. Even the country is falling, some still want to be kings and queens. They must love themselves far more than the country they serve

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Why you want to read Complete the Art of Investing



Why you want to read this book


It should improve your financial health substantially. I can promise you that reading this book can make you a better investor no matter you are a beginner or a fund manager. There are about a million investment books. Why we need another one?

·         This book (the Kindle version) has over 800 pages (6*9) and is about the size of 3 books. It covers most topics in investing.

·         I select proven ideas from more than 100 books besides my own original ideas and experiences. I skip many good ideas that are not applicable to the current market. It is not a novel or documenting the story of my life.

·         Among many, the following successful predictions with valid arguments can be verified by clicking the links.

·         Recommended Apple at $55.72 (1-7 split adjusted) in April 19, 2013 as the only example in my book Scoring Stocks and I recommended to sell it at $132 on 2/2015 with valid arguments described in this link.

·         Could be the top-performed article in Seeking Alpha, an investing site, for recommending more than 5 stocks in a year from its published date. So far, no one challenges me.

·         Successfully predicted a sideway market in 2015.

·         Successfully detected the recovery in 2009 and it was my best year in with about 80% return.

·         With valid reasons, recommended to dump Buffett’s funds 3 years ago to prevent today’s (1/2016) mediocre returns.
 
·         A best seller was written by a young writer whose main income was from his books and none from his investing. His book is good for beginners or you want to brush up your English. Most of my incomes are from investing. Check out my success stories.

·         Many popular books claiming the authors making millions. However, usually their techniques are hard to follow. Many admitted they had been bankrupted many times. Hence, their chance of bankrupting again is very high. Is bankruptcy fine with you? I cannot afford bankruptcy past, present and future. My techniques minimize risking my money.

·         There are many popular books and famous investors. They worked very well at one time and folks making millions following the advices. However, look at their recent performances of the last five years. Most of them cannot even beat the S&P 500 index.

·         The average performance of the hedge fund is terrible. You cannot depend on others to invest for you. If you do not have time and the desire to learn investing, just follow my simple market timing technique without charts and trade an ETF that stimulates the market.

·         One book describes ROE as the only theme (with the story of the life of the author to fill up the book). It is only one fundamental metric in my book and it takes up several small paragraphs and I dedicate an entire chapter on the often- misused P/E. Many of these books are easy to read but offer you NOTHING in investing.

·         Another best seller told you to exit the market in 2009 missing all the gains since then to 2015. The credentials and degrees are nothing but the actual performances.

My motivation to write this book

I would like to share my experiences, both good and bad. I use simple-to-follow techniques using the free (or low-cost) resources available to us. I have been successful in investing for decades. I am enjoying a comfortable financial life. I do not hold back my ‘secrets’ as my children are not interested in investing. It is my small legacy in sharing my investing ideas. When you read this book, you’re taking a chance of an unknown author. I try my best to make your effort and time worthwhile.

If you are looking how to make 100% return overnight, there are many other books claiming to do so and this book is not for you.

This book describes how to be a ‘turtle’ investor making fortune gradually and surely. Before you begin, define your objective first.

My steps to trade stocks (ETFs are far simpler)

1.       Search for valued stocks (many strategies to choose from).
2.       Evaluate the screened stocks by:
a.       Fundamental Analysis.
b.      Intangible Analysis.
c.       Qualitative Analysis.
d.      Technical Analysis.
3.       Sell stocks. Perform the same as in Step #2 to determine whether you need to sell the stocks you own or keep them for another 6 months.

As everything in life, there is no guarantee that this book will make you a lot of money. However, the chance of success will be substantially improved especially when you practice on most of the ideas presented in this book. Start with paper testing first.

Click the link  for the articles I wrote for SeekingAlpha.com, a site for investors (http://seekingalpha.com/author/tony-pow/articles).

Boeing

The order queue is a prediction and not confirmed orders. To my knowledge, there is no penalty (or very slight) to cancel an order. Hence airlines place the orders to secure a place in the queue. Anyway, I am a stock owner of Boeing and the stock has been doing great. It is one of the few stocks I have is truly "buy-and-hold". It may not be a good time to buy now as there may be a renewed recession or a market plunge.

With the mergers of airlines, it is profitable to fly without stop-overs. It will be a win for the airlines, the customers and the larger jets.