Friday, May 26, 2017

No more easy oil

The average price for the last 10 years is more than $35 for sure. Just for production, it will cost more than $35.It  means all the ocean-drilled oil and oil sand are not economically feasible.

The easy oil has long gone.

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Risky ETFs

ETFs by design are less volatile. However, many have stocks based on their market caps. It turns out most of them are rocket stocks such as Apple, Amazon... ETFs based on smaller caps do not have this risk. However, I prefer contra ETFs now as the market is risky to me.

Enemies are at the gate

Check out the Shenzhen link in my second post for the day and you will be amazed. In my own words, "in 10 years, today's Silicon Valley would be the Shenzhen of the West."

I do not totally agree but not totally disagree with Wired video. In a nutshell, they said we should have open source and allow others to copy our products so we will have better products. All the legal lawyers would hang themselves right away if it is materialized.

Many Chinese bashers would ask "Why we do not have global brand names from China?" It is similar to what they asked: "Do not be afraid of Korea as they're building low quality and low value products.".

In my previous post, I'm outraged that our kids do not have homework, so they can play more video games.

My point is be careful as the enemies are at the gate.

Commodity and the USD

Commodity and currency are inversely proportional to each other in theory. For the discussion, we treat gold and oil as commodities and USD as the currency. Commodities are fixed in supply to some extent but currency supply can be politically manipulated.

Today most countries want to depreciate their currencies by printing money excessively. When we have excessive money supply (as more money chasing the same commodity in fixed supply), we should have hyper inflation, but it does not happen for many reasons.

Most text books on this subject have to be rewritten and the college graduates can ask for refund from the colleges. :)

A timely post (4/15)

I agree with you that the market is risky. However, it could stay high for a long time. From my book Profit from 2017 Market Crash, I recommend to act fast when technical tells us to exit - currently technical is fine but not fundamentals.

Here is my market timing result for today's market.

You forget one important metric. Obama has increased our national debt to recent record high. To illustrate, I can make the company look rosy with all metrics (P/E for example) by borrowing a lot of money. It is short-term gain but long-term loss as our children who do not have a voice now have to pay for it.

My rear mirror

When the market fluctuates a lot, it means the market does not know its direction. If it happens, it could be plunging soon.

CENX is a barometer. If you sell making 5% and buy when it dips 5%, you could make some good money. The rear mirror is always clearer.

Drones and anti drones

Drones can carry weapons, lasers, chain saws, chemicals (fertilizers, poisons...). We need to know whom they're sold to - say No to terrorists.They can buy them from and equip them with bombs.

Use quiet drones to take pictures of the naked princess instead of expensive camera most cannot afford.

We do have drone killers. How to defend a flock of thousand drones or drones with defensive drones just like a carrier formation.