Events and the market

My predictions:

* Global recession. Will start soon if not already. Will last for 2 more years. US will recover faster than EU, China and resource-rich countries like Canada, Australia and Brazil, and oil-producing countries.

* Tax increases in 2013. May not be an event that affects the market - will see.

* Obama will win but the congress will be controlled by Democrats. It means his tax policy will not be passed that easily.  By statistics, market is not up a lot in an election year and Democratic rule is better for the market. Republicans are pro business and pro tax cut. 


* End of 2 wars in 3 years. Will have a secular bull market after and until the next major war.

* Housing will be improved in 3 years with smaller houses and apartments. It will take that long to reduce the foreclosure properties and most potential new buyers are not financially ready to buy their first house due to poor job markets, and high loans (student and credit card).


* Demographics. More money will be spent on entitlements such as social security and Medicare. Japan's aging problem today is ours 10 years later. Can we tax the rich and workers to the max., or just continue to print money? If I were the politician, I would print money to buy votes.

May last for 20 years or forever as most developed countries do not have birth rates high enough to support a zero population. The poor countries like India and many in S. America will eat up the world resources. 

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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/16/12. Last updated in 5/16/12.

Disclaimer:

Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.