The global aging of population is due to the baby booms after WW2.
With respect, I've different views on the global demographics as follows.
* India will suffer from the population explosion. They will eat up all the limited resources and they will run out of water in n years which is subject to China's water policy. There are too many problems that cannot be resolved easily. I do not see a bright future for India. They classify themselves literate if they can write their name in any language compared to about 8 years of education beyond kindergarten in China. So statistics are just being manipulated.
The brain drain is alarming as most privileged/educated do not want to wait for their infrastructure to be fixed.
I hope rich countries will not take a doctor from a poor country. This is the worse disservice to a poor country and depriving thousands for medical care for each doctor we import.
Just compare the sub way system and no. of highrises in India and any Tier 3 city in China. The top India city just has sub way recently and Hong Kong is far over-developed for a long while.
Compare the 1980 Hong Kong airport and its infrastructure (the longest suspension bridge in the world then ...) to the new, recent Calcutta airport that has limited road access.Documentaries on both projects are available in Netflix.
Some told me it could be the old family controls India's economy and they do not want changes. I argue the opposite is true. Expensive projects usually allow the corrupt rich to steal money and most infrastructure projects are initiated by the government.
* China still has plenty of cheap labor. Cheap labor will be minor but education will be as they need to move to the next level of industrialization with higher values of products.
China has its own problems and plenty of them but demographics is not the major one to be concerned. Well, gender imbalance is one of them but there is why our Playboy magazine could be a good export. :)
Comparing India and China.
http://bit.ly/ybAnoW
* Russia and Brazil still thrive on commodities and oil as long as global economy grows.
* Africa and some S. American countries.
The explosive population will bring miseries to the world. They will have wars for food and lower life expectancy. They will migrate legally and illegally to rich countries like US. If the farming technology has not been improved to produce more food with less farm land, the world supply of food would have run out already and give rise to global famine.
* US 10 years later should look like Japan today as most developed countries will have the populations shrink to below 0 growth. However, US's black and Hispanics have a higher fertile rate and have larger immigrates than the world combined. US has its different problems/advantages as below.
- Welcome immigrants (opposite to Japan). Most qualified Indians are welcome and so are Chinese (who come for economical reasons, escaping from pollutions, corruption prosecutions...).
- Today's minorities (black and Hispanics) will become the majority. If you look at the high school graduation rate (40% dropout vs 25% for all), social welfare recipient %, prisoner %..., we do not have a bright future. These are facts and it would be offensive to you if you're black or Hispanic.
- When we have jobs for every one, the larger population is an advantage. Not today that we have college graduates begging for any jobs and our social welfare are being depleted. We should have a boom in housing but it will not happen until most of us have a good job.
- The brightest future for us is the agriculture and the demand from many countries grows by leaps and bounds. The other is American culture like movies with English as the most popular language.
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This is one of the 76 articles from my book "A Nation with No Losers'.
Avail.:
(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 5/23/12. Last updated in 5/23/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
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