I expect the housing recovery will be at least 3 years away from 2012. Before this time, all are mirages. However, the investors' best return for builders will be one year before the full recovery.
If we have a w-shaped recessions and/or Japan's lost decades, it will take longer than 3 years. The builders will be profitable if they can manage their resources and projects on smaller houses and more elderly housing for the aging population.
One of the major forces that triggers the housing boom is the college graduates. When they have children, it is time to buy a house. It does not look good as most are under-employed or unemployed with large college loans.
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