Sunday, December 2, 2012

Deeply valued tech stocks

As of 12/2012, I expect the market to be down for various reasons (except during the traditional favorable period from Dec. 15 to Jan. 15 next year). However, some high tech stocks are deeply valued based on the comparisons to their average five-year P/Es. Many have a lot of cash and give dividends. Either the market, which is driven by the fund managers, is wrong or I'm wrong. Let me examine some of them briefly with my observations. Do your own homework before investing.

* Microsoft.
The market underestimates Surface and the new version of Windows. Surface will capture the business sector of the tablets, which could be good size. It depends on: 1. How Office is implemented on Surface, 2. How easy to port existing apps to Surface, 3. The prices and 4. The battery life.

* Intel.
The market just ignores the PC and server markets and tablets cannot take over these sectors. Intel is concentrating their effort in mobile computing, which requires less electricity consumption.

* Xerox.
Fundamentally sound and I do not know why it is in the waste market for many fund managers.

* WDC and STX.
Hard disks are not dead as the fund managers are thinking. Eventually, you need to store your photos and files to an external hard disk. Cloud storage is not secured and too cloudy for me.

* Apple.
With China's market, Apple should boost higher profits and so is the stock price. I expect to see it will go as high as 700 and then drop back to 500 range. Newton's Law of Gravity still holds.

All high tech companies are building better mouse traps. When the mouse traps have not much improvements, they will become commodities. The urge to upgrade is for those who want to boost their social standings.

* Cisco.
When the economy returns, they will rise. They are fundamentally sound. However, they're playing fire arguing falsely that China's routers would harm our security. China will if not already stop some of Cisco routers to China for the same reason. You are stupid to try to boost your marketing without thinking of the consequences, or the US salesman does not care about the international salesman. 

* ALU.
It is a risky company, but it could give you the best return for your investment. Do not bet the entire farm on it. I am betting Cisco will acquire this company or some companies will buy parts of the company. It has the technology that Cisco does not have. The company should worth about 4 times of its current market cap. when it is broken down into pieces.

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Currently I own or have placed buy orders on most of the stocks described. 

My ebook, Debunk the myths of Buffett, could save you a lot of money.

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