Tuesday, December 25, 2012

My great short-term performance

As of 12/25/12, there are many analysts showing their average yearly returns and/or their returns of the top 10 stocks. It would be far too complicated to do the same for a trader like me. I have been accumulating cash and at the same time bought a lot of deeply-valued stocks in last 90 days. Let’s check how I perform so far on these stocks.

I have an average return of 11% while the average SPY is about 1%. Hence I beat SPY by 11 times. However, beating SPY 10% is quite good and 11 times (1,100%) is just amazing. Do not get too excited yet. This phenomenal return could be one time only. It could be improved stock picking technique, plain luck, or a combination. If I can achieve similar return consistently, I will post it in the Afterthoughts in my blog for this book.

From my memory, my best return is 2009 in my largest taxable account (2003 could be another good one but I did not keep good record). It is over 80% beating about 3 times SPY.

There are 20 purchases during this period. Some stocks I bought twice and counted as two purchases.

The four losers are MSFT (-8%), ACTV (-5%), KTCC (-1%) and IAG (-1%). The better winners are: VELT (64%), ALU (38%), ANR (33%) and QCOR (19%). The following are in 14% to 16% range: DECK, NC and BSX (2 purchases). I would like to include the entire spreadsheet on all my purchases, but it will not look good on an ebook with limited width for display. Click here for the list.

I have excluded the stocks that I bought in last 15 days (too early for reliable results) and the stocks that I am testing a strategy by trading them every month. This strategy so far looks promising with good gain and almost no effort on my part. I’ll include the result in my blog for this book if it proves itself to be profitable. It is based on common stocks of two subscription services.

 If I can include Cisco, the result could be even better. It has been bought three times on 7/24/12 and it has gained 31% as of 12/25/12.

In this period, I have been accumulating cash expecting a big dip. As of 12/12, my prediction has not happened, so the market timing does not work so far. It is my case of winning the battle but losing the war. 


My new ebook will display my 'secrets'.

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