Market timing as of 4/15/2017

When you pay between virtually nothing to $10 for an e-book on investing, most likely you do not follow what it preaches especially from the book written by an unknown author. It is just human nature. My friends do not take it seriously on the market timing from my book which is given to them free. I am no exception. Before the fierce correction in August, 2015, I had only 50% cash. It should be 100% if I followed my charts.

It is easy to say “I told you so” today. I just want to see how the technical indicators and fundamental metrics tell us today. The technical indicators today (as of 4/15/2017) tell us not to exit the market. However, the fundamental indicators tell us the market is over-valued and be careful. For me, I will repeat the market timing test more often.

This is my educated guesses and the market is not always rational. I am not responsible for any loss. Market timing is based on educated guesses. Even the best guesses may not be correct all the time, but in the long run, there should be more rights than wrongs.

Personally I bet against the falling oil price since 1/15/2015. Here is my 4/15/17 market timing:

Indicator	Pass	Current Value	Indicating
·         Technical
Death Cross1		SMA-50   = -1%  SMA-200 =  5%	Pass
Technical Analysis: 350 SMA%2	Less than 0	9%	Pass
RSI(14)	<70 span="">	37.50	Pass
Duration	<5 span="">	9	Fail
·         Fundamental
Valuation
P/E3	<15 span="">	26	High by 73% Fail
Shiller P/E3	<17 span="">	29	High by 93% Fail
Oil price	30-120	51	Pass
Interest rate6	<5 span="">	1	Pass
T-Bill 3 months	Yield	0.82
T-Bill 30 years	curve	3.87	Pass
Flow to Equity4		-8  B	Info only
Flow to bond4		+4 B
USD5		Strong	Fail
Gold		High	Fail
Bubble		Several	Fail
Market experts		Fear long term	Neutral
Politics		Trump	Fail
Misc.		None

¹ This is the market timing technique without using chart.

² I tried to use SMA-400% to reduce false signals without success.

³ Get it from http://www.multpl.com/

⁴ Get it from https://www.ici.org/research/stats. It is based on 4-1-17. “Flow to Equity” is based on domestic ETF estimate. Treat it as two phases in moving to equity. First phase of moving excessively to equity indicates the market is peaking. The second phase indicates the market is plunging when flow of equity is excessively negative.

  

⁵ Global corporations will suffer in profits converted back to USD and hard to sell to foreign countries. ⁴ Get it from the above link.

⁶ Rising interest is bad for corporations and high-ticket products, but good for lenders

Check the validity of our charts

It seems the metrics vary. It could use after hour trading. It could be the “Days” may be “Sessions” – calendar day is different from trading session. I selected 10 years for most charts and StockCharts let me select 5 years only. Today is 4/14/2017 and some use the metrics based on 4/13/2017. When they are not a lot of differences, they are OK. The blanks indicate data not available or not applicable. 

Here is a list of sites for charts. 

https://www.stocktrader.com/2013/12/10/best-free-stock-chart-websites/

These are the three sites I use: Fidelity (customers only), StockCharts and Finviz.com (missing some metrics). 

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This will be added to my book Profit from 2017 Market Crash from Amazon. Click here for detail.

As of today, I do not know any reviewers personally. You can tell many reviews were written by their friends and family members.


Still not convinced? Check out the good predictions from 2000-2010 by clicking here.  Since then, there are more false signals that tell you to exit but tell you shortly to return to the market.