I was deeply moved by the family members of the church victims forgiving the shooter. At SeekingAlpha, I wrote a brief post: "Forgive" is the most powerful word in every language and in every culture. I forgot it until I received a response today from Jim.
"Tony,
Without even knowing it, you made the greatest comment I have seen on Seeking Alpha--and it had nothing to do with investing. You mentioned somewhere that "Forgive" is the most powerful word in every language. Wow.
I shared that with my children. Financial commentary is easily forgotten, but that will stay with me forever. Thank you for that.
Jim"
Jim, forgive me to publicize your email as I hope to spread the word to others.
I cannot take any credit as it is just common sense except for those who do not go to church. The credit should be given to the forgiving family members and to the preaching of the church. With the power of forgiveness, we should not have the wars in the Middle East, past, present and future.
Saturday, June 27, 2015
Monday, June 22, 2015
Recommended stocks
This post may be updated when I have new recommendation. The selected stocks are not recommended to trade without thorough research.
6/22/2015. No recommendation.
6/30/15. MU. Need to wait for 2 years. It has been free falling. The company is sound fundamentally Buy it and wait for one to two years.
This post is for the readers of my book Best Stocks 2016. Need to use the stock analysis and market timing described in the book (or your own research) in order to take advantage of it. Remember I'm not liable for any of my recommendations.
Disclaimer
Do not gamble money that you cannot afford to
lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future
performance.
All
information is believed to be accurate, but there is not guaranteed. All the
strategies described have no guarantee that they will make money and they may
lose money. Do not trade without doing due diligence and be warned that most
data of this book would be obsolete by the time you read it.
All my articles and the associated data are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor or a tax professional. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
The
above mentioned also applies for all other advice such as on accounting, taxes,
health and any topic mentioned in this book.
I am not a professional in any of these fields. Same for all the links
contained in this book. I may own a few stocks in the recommended list. As a
trader, I may sell these stocks, but I may buy them back later. My limited size
will not change the stock prices.
Sunday, June 21, 2015
Investing advice for a 70 year old
Why do you being a 70-year old want to be richer? By
statistics, which never lie, you have about ten years (actually more for contingent statistics) to live plus or minus
five days :).
Investing is very emotional and it can damage your health. Inheritance is good
for the next generation, but it should not be your primary reason to make more
money. In addition, it would take out their objective in life and fun in
creating wealth. They should inherit enough to start something and nothing
more.
I agree that we ought to constantly keep our minds active. However, you're competing with veteran professionals in the stock market. Do not turn your life savings into a very expensive hobby. One way to beat them is to invest when everyone is selling and vice versa. It is easier said than done as most of us let emotions make our investing decisions.
If you could live to your eighth decade, you've beaten the odds and the social security system which was designed that a population will not live that long. Just have a big smile and a fulfilling day. Do not let the market control your mood. Like my late mother said: Every day you wake up alive and feel no pain, you've earned another day that is more important than all the gold in the world :).
I agree that we ought to constantly keep our minds active. However, you're competing with veteran professionals in the stock market. Do not turn your life savings into a very expensive hobby. One way to beat them is to invest when everyone is selling and vice versa. It is easier said than done as most of us let emotions make our investing decisions.
If you could live to your eighth decade, you've beaten the odds and the social security system which was designed that a population will not live that long. Just have a big smile and a fulfilling day. Do not let the market control your mood. Like my late mother said: Every day you wake up alive and feel no pain, you've earned another day that is more important than all the gold in the world :).
Friday, June 19, 2015
Monday, June 15, 2015
Say hello to Miss June
The following are selected from the better posts in my daily rants in Seeking Alpha, an investment site for the last 3 months. This is also the place I get investment ideas: some are good and some are 'pump and dump'.
If you enjoy Chinese music, this is my post with many hours of music.
If you enjoy Chinese music, this is my post with many hours of music.
For my books on investing, click here.
Splitting
Splitting a company into two.
Advantages:
1. Reduces liability (in case one is more risky). My old builder has two companies, one in building and one in owning the land. In case one fails, he still has the other one.
Disadvantages:
1. Almost double the administration cost (not important for big company like Computer Science) and moving offices.
2. Reduce the synergy such as transferring knowledge learned from one company to another.
Small investors will have to spend more time in keeping track of their tax basis. I had a hard time when TWA split into several companies
Advantages:
1. Reduces liability (in case one is more risky). My old builder has two companies, one in building and one in owning the land. In case one fails, he still has the other one.
Disadvantages:
1. Almost double the administration cost (not important for big company like Computer Science) and moving offices.
2. Reduce the synergy such as transferring knowledge learned from one company to another.
Small investors will have to spend more time in keeping track of their tax basis. I had a hard time when TWA split into several companies
Your problem is BIG and mine is TINY
China has her problems. However, compared to 30 years ago, today's problems are not a big deal.
US has her problems. Our politicians try to cover our eyes by pointing out others' problems. The politicians cannot fix our problems and they do not want us to face reality.
If every country tries to fix her own problems instead of forcing others to follow her own ideals, culture and standards (such as what's happening in the Middle East), the world would be a better one.
Special thanks to the veterans and the fallen heroes on Memorial Day.
US has her problems. Our politicians try to cover our eyes by pointing out others' problems. The politicians cannot fix our problems and they do not want us to face reality.
If every country tries to fix her own problems instead of forcing others to follow her own ideals, culture and standards (such as what's happening in the Middle East), the world would be a better one.
Special thanks to the veterans and the fallen heroes on Memorial Day.
My three cents on value stocks
My three cents.
1. Need to be patient as we're swimming against the tide. It takes at least half a year for the market to realize its value.
2. Need to time the market. When market plunges, most if not all stocks plunge with the low tide.
3. Consider the debt and the net current asset. This bank stock is fine but it is hard to check the quality of the loan.
---
How can the bank not making money? I pay them 4% or so to borrow and receive virtually 0 for interest.
1. Need to be patient as we're swimming against the tide. It takes at least half a year for the market to realize its value.
2. Need to time the market. When market plunges, most if not all stocks plunge with the low tide.
3. Consider the debt and the net current asset. This bank stock is fine but it is hard to check the quality of the loan.
---
How can the bank not making money? I pay them 4% or so to borrow and receive virtually 0 for interest.
My beloved GILD
It is a
mistake to ignore a good stock like GILD due to its potential dividend
ability. It is one of my largest holdings. Fundamentally sound and quite
value at this price. The outlook is good with our aging population. It
is one of the few stocks to buy-and-hold. I will trade it with temporary
dips and upswings, but will make it my core stocks with SWKS and UVE
(that I will and have unload(ed) some as they're quite high).
Rants of the day
* Microsoft
believes they can have a new version of Windows and the cash register would be ranging all day long. Fix all the bugs first and please. We need another worthy competitor to Windows.
* An electric motor cycle? How much gas it would save? Marketable? Feasible? Killing too many pedestrians due to the noiseless engines? Losing image of a tough rider? Too many question marks and no answers.
* An electric motor cycle? How much gas it would save? Marketable? Feasible? Killing too many pedestrians due to the noiseless engines? Losing image of a tough rider? Too many question marks and no answers.
The top global leader
To me, it
is 'Central government'. China is more capitalist than communist. I
wonder why so many Hong Kongese do not understand this. Has any US
president nominated some one who is against him (unless he is stupid
(likely), receive a lot of money under the table (most likely) or no
better choice (not possible))?
The student leader (17 then) was No. 1 World 'leader' from a 'reputable' business magazine. Either they are China bashers (like some folks in Norway) or they have been living in a cave for too long.
The student leader (17 then) was No. 1 World 'leader' from a 'reputable' business magazine. Either they are China bashers (like some folks in Norway) or they have been living in a cave for too long.
The clown is still laughing
In the last 3
decades, the rise of China changes the global economy. The
world is closer with advancing communication and cheaper transportation.
Australia is the major country to benefit. China needs its minerals and agribusiness. When China rises, Australia rises and vice versa.
AIIE is another slap on our face. However, the clown is still laughing when both of his cheeks are slapped hard.
Australia is the major country to benefit. China needs its minerals and agribusiness. When China rises, Australia rises and vice versa.
AIIE is another slap on our face. However, the clown is still laughing when both of his cheeks are slapped hard.
Mergers
There are two kinds of mergers/acquisitions:
1. Cost saving by cutting down duplicated functions such as payroll, not to re-invent the wheel.. and all kinds of synergies. Some small drug companies need to be acquired as they do not have resources to market or continue development new drugs.
2. Loser looking for another loser to cover up the errors of its management.
1. Cost saving by cutting down duplicated functions such as payroll, not to re-invent the wheel.. and all kinds of synergies. Some small drug companies need to be acquired as they do not have resources to market or continue development new drugs.
2. Loser looking for another loser to cover up the errors of its management.
MCP is bankrupting - warned in 2011
From my first book A Nation of No Losers (my only political satire):
As of 2011, China has at least two years before these foreign mines are ready. [Note: As of 8/2012, some new mines on rare earth minerals are ready to be mined outside China. However, with the global recession, they’re not profitable.] By then, China will decide the prices again based on whether they want to capture the rare earth market and/or their products that use these rare earth elements.
To summary, China should limit the rare earth element export and price them as high as the market can bear. I would avoid betting on rare earth elements by foreign miners as they are too risky.
----------------------
Plus my several posts in SA. It drew laughs as the enthusiasts were loading rare earth stocks at the time (around 2011). Even recently MCP's stock surged briefly after the 60 Minutes episode. Now who is laughing (or crying)?
As of 2011, China has at least two years before these foreign mines are ready. [Note: As of 8/2012, some new mines on rare earth minerals are ready to be mined outside China. However, with the global recession, they’re not profitable.] By then, China will decide the prices again based on whether they want to capture the rare earth market and/or their products that use these rare earth elements.
To summary, China should limit the rare earth element export and price them as high as the market can bear. I would avoid betting on rare earth elements by foreign miners as they are too risky.
----------------------
Plus my several posts in SA. It drew laughs as the enthusiasts were loading rare earth stocks at the time (around 2011). Even recently MCP's stock surged briefly after the 60 Minutes episode. Now who is laughing (or crying)?
GDP, China and Energy
* Many
countries improve the GDP by spending. The difference is China spends
most of the money in investing such as infrastructure and the US spends
most of its money in consumption (such as our generous welfare) in order
to buy votes in addition to our endless wars.
* China's economy does not depends on slave wages contrary to several posts here. Many laborious jobs go to Vietnam... which have lower wages than China. China is moving up the product chain.
* I strongly advise not to buy drillers and explorers esp. in the shale energy. I made good profits in energy. Sold OIL two times making 30% and annualized to about 180%. Check out my amazing quarter that cannot be sustained for sure.
http://bit.ly/1H0vYUo
* China's economy does not depends on slave wages contrary to several posts here. Many laborious jobs go to Vietnam... which have lower wages than China. China is moving up the product chain.
* I strongly advise not to buy drillers and explorers esp. in the shale energy. I made good profits in energy. Sold OIL two times making 30% and annualized to about 180%. Check out my amazing quarter that cannot be sustained for sure.
http://bit.ly/1H0vYUo
Nothing is perfect including GDP
GDP is a kind of misleading yardstick:
1. Every country boosts their GDP by government spending. However, China spends most in infrastructure while the US spends in the endless wars to be the big brother and welfare to buy votes. The line between investing and consumption is fuzzy.
2. 10% over the first 25 years is sustainable for a emerging economy. After that, 5% is fine.
Besides the earning growth of corporations, we also need to check many other factors that would affect future earnings. Actually China can improve their citizens' living standard without increasing GDP such as paying attention to pollution, food regulation, corruption
1. Every country boosts their GDP by government spending. However, China spends most in infrastructure while the US spends in the endless wars to be the big brother and welfare to buy votes. The line between investing and consumption is fuzzy.
2. 10% over the first 25 years is sustainable for a emerging economy. After that, 5% is fine.
Besides the earning growth of corporations, we also need to check many other factors that would affect future earnings. Actually China can improve their citizens' living standard without increasing GDP such as paying attention to pollution, food regulation, corruption
Shameless rants
* Is
China's stock market a bubble? From FXI, P/E is 12 and dividend rate
about 2%. It is not a bubble if we trust their corporate figures. China
needs an organization like SEC.
* China's inflation is moderate due to lower energy prices, commodity prices...
* Frontier Airline asked my consulting service to cut down expenses. Put a meter similar to parking meter on the door of all restrooms. It encourages folks to unload before boarding. A double win situation and that is why they call themselves Frontier
If the plane is large enough, cut the size of all rest rooms except one for fatsos. It would discourage them to fly but it is good for fuel saving and food consumption. Just do it in low key to avoid all the unreasonable discrimination attacks. It is just a bad dream for me (fatsos too).
* China's inflation is moderate due to lower energy prices, commodity prices...
* Frontier Airline asked my consulting service to cut down expenses. Put a meter similar to parking meter on the door of all restrooms. It encourages folks to unload before boarding. A double win situation and that is why they call themselves Frontier
If the plane is large enough, cut the size of all rest rooms except one for fatsos. It would discourage them to fly but it is good for fuel saving and food consumption. Just do it in low key to avoid all the unreasonable discrimination attacks. It is just a bad dream for me (fatsos too).
The reality most folks want to ignore
The reality:
Folks want to buy tickets at lower prices than the amenities. No one decides whether to buy a ticket based on the seat size or the lavatory size.
The businesses have to react to what the customers REALLY want.
If you look at the recent air disasters, you would find most belong to cheap airlines not checking the pilots' conditions, lowering the maintenance schedules, taking risky but shorter routes... Do we avoid cheap airlines?
When the airline has bad customer services, most likely the airline is making extra bucks and its stock price rises. The bad news is the good news if you're a stock holder of the airline.
Folks want to buy tickets at lower prices than the amenities. No one decides whether to buy a ticket based on the seat size or the lavatory size.
The businesses have to react to what the customers REALLY want.
If you look at the recent air disasters, you would find most belong to cheap airlines not checking the pilots' conditions, lowering the maintenance schedules, taking risky but shorter routes... Do we avoid cheap airlines?
When the airline has bad customer services, most likely the airline is making extra bucks and its stock price rises. The bad news is the good news if you're a stock holder of the airline.
I care my stocks more than your health
No, the
traditional Chinese cuisine is healthy. To illustrate, the 16 oz steak
served here for one person (I and my co-workers had the best, generous
cut on business trips so are some of the 'poor' food stamp recipients)
is cut down into paper thin pieces and stir fried with vegetables to
serve the entire village.
It is the unlimited portions from the Chinese buffets learned from the Swiss or Norwegians Smogabord or the unlimited fountain from the fast food chains.
If we do not do anything, our population would explode! Also down would be our health care stocks, drug stocks...
It is the unlimited portions from the Chinese buffets learned from the Swiss or Norwegians Smogabord or the unlimited fountain from the fast food chains.
If we do not do anything, our population would explode! Also down would be our health care stocks, drug stocks...
McDonald's is our best weapon
There used
to be no fat Chinese until McDonald's came to town. Uncle Deng had
predicted what happened when they opened the window (to let both fresh air and
flies in).
The fat kid (or emperor due to one-child policy) is spoiled by 6 (2 parents and 4 grand parents). When we cannot win in Middle East by our advanced weaponry and unlimited USD, we can send fast foods to them FREE, so their next generation is so fat that they cannot pick up guns. A modern Trojan Horse.
-----
To make the airline more profitable.
It is more effective to put a sign so you can sell the expensive bottle water in the planes:
The free water has been recycled from your fellow passengers' urine.
The fat kid (or emperor due to one-child policy) is spoiled by 6 (2 parents and 4 grand parents). When we cannot win in Middle East by our advanced weaponry and unlimited USD, we can send fast foods to them FREE, so their next generation is so fat that they cannot pick up guns. A modern Trojan Horse.
-----
To make the airline more profitable.
It is more effective to put a sign so you can sell the expensive bottle water in the planes:
The free water has been recycled from your fellow passengers' urine.
GILD
GILD has not made a big acquisition lately. There are several considerations.
* Is GILD being forced to purchase a company from their investors? If so, it may be over-paid. The bio tech and drug companies have too many crazy acquisitions already. Many do not make sense.
* GILD has a lot of cash sitting around unproductively.
* GILD needs a big bang several years down the road. Its pipeline does not seem to justify the market cap. If Apple only has iWatch to show for, then Apple will be in big trouble two or three years from now.
* Contrary to another post, a new acquisition for GILD should not be based on the financial ratios, but the potential market for one or more new drug(s). The small company usually does not have marketing resources and developing further trials. It is a win win situation for both the acquirer and acquiree.
* Is GILD being forced to purchase a company from their investors? If so, it may be over-paid. The bio tech and drug companies have too many crazy acquisitions already. Many do not make sense.
* GILD has a lot of cash sitting around unproductively.
* GILD needs a big bang several years down the road. Its pipeline does not seem to justify the market cap. If Apple only has iWatch to show for, then Apple will be in big trouble two or three years from now.
* Contrary to another post, a new acquisition for GILD should not be based on the financial ratios, but the potential market for one or more new drug(s). The small company usually does not have marketing resources and developing further trials. It is a win win situation for both the acquirer and acquiree.
Another rants
* The bond
yields will be increased by most countries next year. Time to buy contra
ETFs to long-term bonds if there are ones for the country. Will not
know when it will be profitable but patience will pay off.
* Euro seems to be a great idea (esp. for tourists). Now it turns an asset into a liability. Germany carries too much weigh on its shoulder.
* Avoid buying and shorting on all these bubble stocks: Tesla, Netflix. Amazon... unless you have a good reason that I do not know. I prefer organic growth and buy profitable companies at right prices. Just me.
* For an ETF to fluctuate 2% in one day, it is very rare. China has its experiences many times.
* Having all these problems such as credit card leak, closing operations in Canada, the stock of Target is still rising. Have a small bet and will sell it soon (qualified for long-term gain treatment & the market is getting risky). With the cheap money or ample cash, are buyback and dividend good for the company? To me, they should invest in the company. Today, it is not as the management wants to boost up the value of stock options.
* Bio tech / drug companies have too many outrageous acquisitions so far this year. Many do not make business sense to me. Gild has been in the side line this year and has been criticized. Small drug companies should be acquired as they do not have the resources to market the product(s) and/or develop them further. When you go to the supermarket, you shop for the best prices, not because others are buying the same banana.
* Euro seems to be a great idea (esp. for tourists). Now it turns an asset into a liability. Germany carries too much weigh on its shoulder.
* Avoid buying and shorting on all these bubble stocks: Tesla, Netflix. Amazon... unless you have a good reason that I do not know. I prefer organic growth and buy profitable companies at right prices. Just me.
* For an ETF to fluctuate 2% in one day, it is very rare. China has its experiences many times.
* Having all these problems such as credit card leak, closing operations in Canada, the stock of Target is still rising. Have a small bet and will sell it soon (qualified for long-term gain treatment & the market is getting risky). With the cheap money or ample cash, are buyback and dividend good for the company? To me, they should invest in the company. Today, it is not as the management wants to boost up the value of stock options.
* Bio tech / drug companies have too many outrageous acquisitions so far this year. Many do not make business sense to me. Gild has been in the side line this year and has been criticized. Small drug companies should be acquired as they do not have the resources to market the product(s) and/or develop them further. When you go to the supermarket, you shop for the best prices, not because others are buying the same banana.
HSR and the USA
HSR is not needed in the USA. The one in Boston to NYC is not HSR but high speed train without the speed:
1. The air travel is mature here.
2. The population density is not dense enough for profit like China.
3. Expensive and political.
4. No more cheap Chinese labor. The Chinese connected the railway from Chicago to California even you do not see any yellow face in every milestone photo. It is tough job esp. in the hot summer days.
5. The Rocky is too much to drill and will never be profitable.
6. Even for the easy one for SF to LA, we're still debating who is on top. A water duct from Seattle to Calif. is a better deal for the potential return.
No brainer except for the politicians and all those who benefit from the project.
1. The air travel is mature here.
2. The population density is not dense enough for profit like China.
3. Expensive and political.
4. No more cheap Chinese labor. The Chinese connected the railway from Chicago to California even you do not see any yellow face in every milestone photo. It is tough job esp. in the hot summer days.
5. The Rocky is too much to drill and will never be profitable.
6. Even for the easy one for SF to LA, we're still debating who is on top. A water duct from Seattle to Calif. is a better deal for the potential return.
No brainer except for the politicians and all those who benefit from the project.
Any future?
The problem
of today's kids is they want to enjoy life. Our success today is our
reason for downfall tomorrow. They spend too much time in video games
and sports - a moderate amount is fine.
Can they compete with their counter-parts in China, India, Singapore..? I do not think so when you consider an average American kid studies at least two hours less than their counter-part every day.
We will still be #1 due to our resources per capita and all the hard works of the previous generations. To illustrate, China's GDP will catch up with us in 10 years or so. However, they have 4 times our population, so they are still 4 times less in GDP per capita in theory may be 2 times in reality.
Can they compete with their counter-parts in China, India, Singapore..? I do not think so when you consider an average American kid studies at least two hours less than their counter-part every day.
We will still be #1 due to our resources per capita and all the hard works of the previous generations. To illustrate, China's GDP will catch up with us in 10 years or so. However, they have 4 times our population, so they are still 4 times less in GDP per capita in theory may be 2 times in reality.
Europe is buring
Reactions to the daily business news.
* While I was playing my mandolin facing east, I said, "Europe is burning."
* Finally MERS made the news. Koreans have not been doing the right stuffs to prevent the spreading. They hoped to keep it quiet. When they spread it to other countries, they should be liable.
* I know at least one substitute teacher making about the minimum wage for the entire year. Why go to college? The robots are smiling in LA, so are the factory workers in low-wage countries. We protect our workers by not giving them jobs.
* While I was playing my mandolin facing east, I said, "Europe is burning."
* Finally MERS made the news. Koreans have not been doing the right stuffs to prevent the spreading. They hoped to keep it quiet. When they spread it to other countries, they should be liable.
* I know at least one substitute teacher making about the minimum wage for the entire year. Why go to college? The robots are smiling in LA, so are the factory workers in low-wage countries. We protect our workers by not giving them jobs.
Simple and complex carbohydrates
Avoid
simple carbohydrates such as sugar, syrup... and complex carbohydrates
are good such as fruits. Honey is simple but has a lot of nutrients, so
do not avoid it totally. Soda and cookies are among the worst.
Dr. Campbell's China Study (using the old Chinese population as a sample) suggests vegetarian and whole-grain diet.
From time to time, folks show me the smokers, meat lovers...survive a good healthy life. Remember they're exceptions and statistically (including my own experiences on my friends) they do not.
A simple blood test will tell you most of the signs of problems before they damage your body. Eat fruits and veggies to boost up your immune system (also against cancer).
It is harder for a wealthy guy to have a healthy life. In Mass., health care is free if you're qualified. Some hold on their house to disqualify themselves. Many do not buy the drug option in Medicare. A health tip could be more important than a good stock tip. Hope I do not waste my time here (at least not for myself to review the carbohydrate problem).
Dr. Campbell's China Study (using the old Chinese population as a sample) suggests vegetarian and whole-grain diet.
From time to time, folks show me the smokers, meat lovers...survive a good healthy life. Remember they're exceptions and statistically (including my own experiences on my friends) they do not.
A simple blood test will tell you most of the signs of problems before they damage your body. Eat fruits and veggies to boost up your immune system (also against cancer).
It is harder for a wealthy guy to have a healthy life. In Mass., health care is free if you're qualified. Some hold on their house to disqualify themselves. Many do not buy the drug option in Medicare. A health tip could be more important than a good stock tip. Hope I do not waste my time here (at least not for myself to review the carbohydrate problem).
Another daily rants
* Net
neutrality is fair. The primary aim is preventing partners to speed up
downloading movies such as Microsoft + Comcast to have an edge over
others such as Netflix.
* If you look at the impact to Hong Kong from SARS, MERS is not too far away. Stay away from travelling to Korea and do not kiss any Koreans for a while. Safety has higher priority than sex! When you're in the Middle East, stay a good distance from camels or train the camels how to cover their big mouths.
* As posted a while ago, there is no need for any trade deal. If you do not have tariffs and restrictions with us, we do the same with you. Simple and effective. However, the world politics is not that simple and effective such as unfair competition (product dumping & subsidies). We're also cheated by our politicians giving the other country better deals. Any kickbacks?
For true free trade, many Indian corporations would be hurt or even bankrupt, and so are many US companies such as Cisco and most solar panel companies facing competition from China. The world is not that simple as it appears to be.
* If you look at the impact to Hong Kong from SARS, MERS is not too far away. Stay away from travelling to Korea and do not kiss any Koreans for a while. Safety has higher priority than sex! When you're in the Middle East, stay a good distance from camels or train the camels how to cover their big mouths.
* As posted a while ago, there is no need for any trade deal. If you do not have tariffs and restrictions with us, we do the same with you. Simple and effective. However, the world politics is not that simple and effective such as unfair competition (product dumping & subsidies). We're also cheated by our politicians giving the other country better deals. Any kickbacks?
For true free trade, many Indian corporations would be hurt or even bankrupt, and so are many US companies such as Cisco and most solar panel companies facing competition from China. The world is not that simple as it appears to be.
Chinese stocks and corruption
For the US
investors, we just stick with ETFs such as FXI. Most of us depend on
second-hand info and we do not have time to do exhaustive research on
Chinese stocks.
The anti-corruption campaign is good for China and its stock market in the long term - thanks to the Chinese president even it is for political reasons (catching the big tigers). When it came out, I advised folks to dump all gambling stocks. It worked this time. China really needs desperately an organization like SEC.
The global markets including China are dangerous from the profit/risk ratio as indicated in my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash.
The anti-corruption campaign is good for China and its stock market in the long term - thanks to the Chinese president even it is for political reasons (catching the big tigers). When it came out, I advised folks to dump all gambling stocks. It worked this time. China really needs desperately an organization like SEC.
The global markets including China are dangerous from the profit/risk ratio as indicated in my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash.
Randm rants as usual
The rants comment the daily business news in SeekingAlpha.com.
* Traders make money on a volatile market. They must be happy with Greece for the last few weeks. In this risky market, I stop my momentum trading until further 'notice' and is selling some risky investments.
* Saudi's market has only one word: OIL. It could be bottom out soon if not now. But, who really knows? In the desert, nothing grows. Do you want to visit Dubai when everything is so expensive. If I want to see a concrete jungle, I visit NYC. The exciting thought of being rubbed is the free bonus.
* Hong Kong and China stocks may still have a life when the ETFs include their stocks. When a stock is listed in both exchange, I do not know what the ETFs will do. Stocks listed in mainland China have larger volumes but the same stock listed in HK is cheaper for no reason. Who said the 'market is efficient'.
* IBM is building its next mouse trap. Will it be successful? Only time can tell. Windows NT was a co-development with the cunning Microsoft. In this case, those nice, gentle gentlemen dressed in white shirts and 3-piece suits lost BIG time including their shirts. Business is tough and leave your ideals, proper raising and behavior on Sundays.
* Traders make money on a volatile market. They must be happy with Greece for the last few weeks. In this risky market, I stop my momentum trading until further 'notice' and is selling some risky investments.
* Saudi's market has only one word: OIL. It could be bottom out soon if not now. But, who really knows? In the desert, nothing grows. Do you want to visit Dubai when everything is so expensive. If I want to see a concrete jungle, I visit NYC. The exciting thought of being rubbed is the free bonus.
* Hong Kong and China stocks may still have a life when the ETFs include their stocks. When a stock is listed in both exchange, I do not know what the ETFs will do. Stocks listed in mainland China have larger volumes but the same stock listed in HK is cheaper for no reason. Who said the 'market is efficient'.
* IBM is building its next mouse trap. Will it be successful? Only time can tell. Windows NT was a co-development with the cunning Microsoft. In this case, those nice, gentle gentlemen dressed in white shirts and 3-piece suits lost BIG time including their shirts. Business is tough and leave your ideals, proper raising and behavior on Sundays.
MU
MU is a cyclical stock. I missed to unload it at the peak of the cycle. Now, it could be a good time to buy and wait.
Living dangerously
The amazing
recovery of the market from 2007-2008 is due to the excessive printing
of money that leads to easy credit. With easy credit, we have a
record-high margin debt and buyouts. With all these, we have a simple
case of increasing Demand and diminishing Supply.
When the excessive printing is stopped, our stock market will fall like a deck of cards. It will in 2016 (predicted in my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash). This year is a pre-election year and none of them crashed recently including 2007 which was a flat year even not including dividends.
We've been living dangerously on borrowed time. Be warned.
When the excessive printing is stopped, our stock market will fall like a deck of cards. It will in 2016 (predicted in my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash). This year is a pre-election year and none of them crashed recently including 2007 which was a flat year even not including dividends.
We've been living dangerously on borrowed time. Be warned.
Sell in May
"Sell in May" has not been working in the last 5 years in a rising market. Keep the advice to yourself and look at the FACTS.
Wednesday, June 3, 2015
$80 sneakers
When the two dollar stores merge, the new company is called "Two dollars now".
Amazingly, some kids from welfare families show off their $80 sneakers that I cannot afford (or not too stupid) to buy. Same as going to see a doctor for a minor cold.
Tufts is giving scholarships to children of illegals. How many want to disguise as illegals (no proofs are needed to be illegal)?
No one saves. When you save too much (like myself), you lose all the goodies from the government such as free health care. With more than 40% not working, we're a nation of free loaders.
Actually the rich can afford to buy good stuffs more as the stock market is great. It widens the wealth gap and causes disputes. The problem is 1% cannot support the rest even if they spend like no tomorrow as the rest of our citizens are doing.
What's wrong with this country (compared to 50s and 60s)?
Amazingly, some kids from welfare families show off their $80 sneakers that I cannot afford (or not too stupid) to buy. Same as going to see a doctor for a minor cold.
Tufts is giving scholarships to children of illegals. How many want to disguise as illegals (no proofs are needed to be illegal)?
No one saves. When you save too much (like myself), you lose all the goodies from the government such as free health care. With more than 40% not working, we're a nation of free loaders.
Actually the rich can afford to buy good stuffs more as the stock market is great. It widens the wealth gap and causes disputes. The problem is 1% cannot support the rest even if they spend like no tomorrow as the rest of our citizens are doing.
What's wrong with this country (compared to 50s and 60s)?
Air disaster
If you look
at the recent air disasters, you may notice sth in common. They are all
cheap airlines. My theory is they are making short cuts by not checking
their pilots' qualifications, less maintenance, shorter but riskier
routes...
You get what you paid for.
You get what you paid for.
Self promoting
If you do
not think everyone (with a real name) posting in SA is not self
promoting, you're living in your own fantasy. Seeds falling on rich soil
will grow into plants and wilt on sh?t.
When there were a market crash, many would blame themselves for not preparing (i.e. not buying my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash from Amazon.com).
When there were a market crash, many would blame themselves for not preparing (i.e. not buying my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash from Amazon.com).
On Israel
I do not
have too much luck in investing in Israel tech companies. They have a
lot of technology; that is the major reason the Muslim world cannot
crush Israel with the far larger population and the other reason is the
US backing.
Who want to be #1 lender to the US? Only sucker. Or take advantage of the difference of currency appreciation (depending on which currency used).
Why we want keep on borrowing? To build a fake economy recovery at the expense of our future generations.
Why we're not competitive? To service the enormous debt based on the percent of our GDP.
Why we do stupid things like this? Buy votes to satisfy everyone including all the 40% or more free loaders (they are voters too).
Who want to be #1 lender to the US? Only sucker. Or take advantage of the difference of currency appreciation (depending on which currency used).
Why we want keep on borrowing? To build a fake economy recovery at the expense of our future generations.
Why we're not competitive? To service the enormous debt based on the percent of our GDP.
Why we do stupid things like this? Buy votes to satisfy everyone including all the 40% or more free loaders (they are voters too).
Every one makes the same
Sounds like communism. If every one makes the same, what's the incentive to work harder.
It is a good deed for this CEO. However, I will cut my salary to one dollar if they give me $1 million in stock options.
It is a good deed for this CEO. However, I will cut my salary to one dollar if they give me $1 million in stock options.
A selloff?
1%
correction is not a sell off for sure. The market needs to take a
breather. It has been doing too good recently. Same for China. The
global economies are inter-connected so geopolitics is important.
To me, it is a side way market with a little gain at the end of the year. I do not expect a plunge in a year before election; from my memory we do not have one including 2007, which is a flat year even not including dividends.
Well, the market is not rational. But the simple techniques described in my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash tell you when to fully exit (and fully return); it worked for the last two market plunges. Still not convinced, try the following link.
http://bit.ly/19Y6XEQ
To me, it is a side way market with a little gain at the end of the year. I do not expect a plunge in a year before election; from my memory we do not have one including 2007, which is a flat year even not including dividends.
Well, the market is not rational. But the simple techniques described in my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash tell you when to fully exit (and fully return); it worked for the last two market plunges. Still not convinced, try the following link.
http://bit.ly/19Y6XEQ
A new hedge fund
For the
last 7 years hedge funds are not doing good. They do not have anything
to hedge in a rising market. When you include the early exits, most
hedge funds do not beat SPY. When it is headed by a crook, it is doomed
to fail.
Too many free loaders
We should
cut all but slowly and gradually. We're a nation of free loaders with
over 40% not paying Federal tax. They are voters too. Specifically we should:
1. No illegals to legals. When they become legals, they will collect welfare legally and bring their families in for the same reason.
2. Train and encourage the able welfare recipients to work. Cutting their benefits in taking a job will not encourage them to work. Clinton's Initiative has more holes than my Swiss cheese.
3. Cut down our generous welfare. That's why we have three generations of teen age mothers. Laziness is a human nature.
4. End the endless wars. If they do not want to fight for their own freedom, why should we (suckers in their eyes)?
5. We cannot borrow forever and pass our debts to next generations. USD will not be a reserve currency in 10 years. Printing money excessively is a short-term solution but a problem long-term.
6. Invest not consume. With our infrastructure going downhill, huge debt to service, regulations to 'protect' our workers..., we're no longer competitive in many areas.
7. Cut down foreign aids. A big brother is only in the mind of our leaders.
8. We need a small and efficient government. Guard changing when another party takes over is expensive.
I just started the list without too much thinking, but it would be an endless list. I have one page about the causes (not solutions as listed here) in my new book Profit from 2016 Market Crash.
1. No illegals to legals. When they become legals, they will collect welfare legally and bring their families in for the same reason.
2. Train and encourage the able welfare recipients to work. Cutting their benefits in taking a job will not encourage them to work. Clinton's Initiative has more holes than my Swiss cheese.
3. Cut down our generous welfare. That's why we have three generations of teen age mothers. Laziness is a human nature.
4. End the endless wars. If they do not want to fight for their own freedom, why should we (suckers in their eyes)?
5. We cannot borrow forever and pass our debts to next generations. USD will not be a reserve currency in 10 years. Printing money excessively is a short-term solution but a problem long-term.
6. Invest not consume. With our infrastructure going downhill, huge debt to service, regulations to 'protect' our workers..., we're no longer competitive in many areas.
7. Cut down foreign aids. A big brother is only in the mind of our leaders.
8. We need a small and efficient government. Guard changing when another party takes over is expensive.
I just started the list without too much thinking, but it would be an endless list. I have one page about the causes (not solutions as listed here) in my new book Profit from 2016 Market Crash.
Best ad compaighn and is free
Target had a promotion on dresses from a designer. It sold out instantly and hit all the national TV networks.
It is a win-win situation and the best ad you can buy for FREE.
Do it every six months. Even if you do not gain on the deal, the ad return is astronomical (=effect / dollar spent and the dollar is zero). I will buy a drink for the genius in the marketing department.
It is a win-win situation and the best ad you can buy for FREE.
Do it every six months. Even if you do not gain on the deal, the ad return is astronomical (=effect / dollar spent and the dollar is zero). I will buy a drink for the genius in the marketing department.
Enviromentally concious wedding banquet
How to have
a wedding banquet that the entire town will talk about and at the least
cost? It is in Burger King and they treat you like a king. All the
fries are super sized and the drinks are bottomless. Party favors (paper crowns in different colors) are
included. Just ensure you do not use the narrow drive-thru lane with your limo.
Of course, my silly daughter flatly refused
Of course, my silly daughter flatly refused
Objective in life
We come to
this earth with nothing and leave with nothing. Why we fight for money
and prestige? However, life without objective (for money, friends,
health...) is a life without meaning
50 shades of green
Folks
buying 'green' cars are not for the green but boosting their ego and
social standing. A visit to our oldest profession could boost your ego better at the least cost. Actually in some places in Canada, it would harm the
environment more due to using electricity generated by coal.
However, without these ego seekers, we would not have a better green car in the future that could be really green. A new battery in the lab of MIT and other places could revolutionize the green car industry. Could be in 10 years time.
If I plan my trip from Boston to Wash. DC, check how many work I have to make sure to charge the battery and how much I can save with today's low fuel cost. I need to relax during vacation not to worry where and when to get charged. I bet the saving is not worth the effort esp. in taking vacations or for some one who drives an average of 5,000 miles. I rest my case
However, without these ego seekers, we would not have a better green car in the future that could be really green. A new battery in the lab of MIT and other places could revolutionize the green car industry. Could be in 10 years time.
If I plan my trip from Boston to Wash. DC, check how many work I have to make sure to charge the battery and how much I can save with today's low fuel cost. I need to relax during vacation not to worry where and when to get charged. I bet the saving is not worth the effort esp. in taking vacations or for some one who drives an average of 5,000 miles. I rest my case
Random rants April 24
* Why we have those trade deals? Just no tariff to all countries if they do the same to us. Simple and effective.
* HSBC moved from HK to London due to the takeover. Their major profits are due to its proximity to China. I suggest: Has the official headquarter in Caveman Island (just a mail box) and the working headquarter in HK; and a beautiful secretary in London.
* Microsoft: short-term still good but long-term too cloudy. All the companies involved in clouds have to find a way to make money and a way to secure the cloud. When Google has a similar package as Office, then bye bye Office. When Google or Apple has a better OS and/or give it away at low cost to manufacturers, bye bye Windows.
* When money is being pulled out from the US, why our stock market is still up. The threat is not the pull out but the money supply (same as interest rate). When the interest rate is raised (most likely next year), our record-high margin debt will lead the way to fall like a deck of cards.
* HSBC moved from HK to London due to the takeover. Their major profits are due to its proximity to China. I suggest: Has the official headquarter in Caveman Island (just a mail box) and the working headquarter in HK; and a beautiful secretary in London.
* Microsoft: short-term still good but long-term too cloudy. All the companies involved in clouds have to find a way to make money and a way to secure the cloud. When Google has a similar package as Office, then bye bye Office. When Google or Apple has a better OS and/or give it away at low cost to manufacturers, bye bye Windows.
* When money is being pulled out from the US, why our stock market is still up. The threat is not the pull out but the money supply (same as interest rate). When the interest rate is raised (most likely next year), our record-high margin debt will lead the way to fall like a deck of cards.
Market timing
It seems more of the articles are coming predicting the market plunge.
Personally I prefer to prepare it slowly this year and more aggressively next year. Why? I do not recall any market plunges in pre-election years including 2007 which is flat even not including dividends.
2016 is risky amplified by our record margin debt. If it does not happen in 2016, very, very likely it will happen in 2017. Since 2000, we have two market plunges with an average loss of 45%. My simple technique detects both of them in a timely manner (not peaks and bottoms but enough to make a bundle) as described in my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash. It will predict the next one but it may not give us ample of time to prepare as the last two
Personally I prefer to prepare it slowly this year and more aggressively next year. Why? I do not recall any market plunges in pre-election years including 2007 which is flat even not including dividends.
2016 is risky amplified by our record margin debt. If it does not happen in 2016, very, very likely it will happen in 2017. Since 2000, we have two market plunges with an average loss of 45%. My simple technique detects both of them in a timely manner (not peaks and bottoms but enough to make a bundle) as described in my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash. It will predict the next one but it may not give us ample of time to prepare as the last two
On China by a Chinese American
Why we
blame China for her actions in Trans-Pacific agreements? It is similar
to China blaming us on NAFTA. It does not make any sense at all.
China has already controlled the region's trade by: 1. AIIB, the banker for Asian countries. 2. Modern Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road to connect the East Asia all the way to Europe better than before. Both projects are just started.
China has never proclaimed to be the big brother as we're doing; it does not mean they will not in the future. With our offense budget more than the next four countries combined, we want to show our strength in the region. Chinese have never been aggressor in its long history. While we have carriers generated by dual nuclear generators, they have one good for a floating restaurant.
China has already controlled the region's trade by: 1. AIIB, the banker for Asian countries. 2. Modern Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road to connect the East Asia all the way to Europe better than before. Both projects are just started.
China has never proclaimed to be the big brother as we're doing; it does not mean they will not in the future. With our offense budget more than the next four countries combined, we want to show our strength in the region. Chinese have never been aggressor in its long history. While we have carriers generated by dual nuclear generators, they have one good for a floating restaurant.
The billionaires among us
My new (out today) book "How to be a billionaire" has a brief description on Walton family:
I know two or three (one not sure) billionaires personally: my high school classmate, another schoolmate I've never met and one I met in my friend’s party several times. They all have something in common: Participate in IPO in Chinese companies. It is once-in-a-life-time opportunity to build bridges between the US and the Chinese businesses. It is similar to Walton families making billions by importing Chinese products. What a simple idea and why I missed it?
I know two or three (one not sure) billionaires personally: my high school classmate, another schoolmate I've never met and one I met in my friend’s party several times. They all have something in common: Participate in IPO in Chinese companies. It is once-in-a-life-time opportunity to build bridges between the US and the Chinese businesses. It is similar to Walton families making billions by importing Chinese products. What a simple idea and why I missed it?
Executive rest room
I worked
for the Federal Reserve bank on the 'high tech' project writing device
driver for money stackers. If I stayed, we may not have today's financial
mess - similar to why Celtics lost. However, the job was boring (today could be better with internet surfing) to me so there was still no free lunch
(except the fancy lunches at ridiculously low prices). I was two years
out of college and I was an officer there. It means they gave me a key
for the executive dining room, executive elevator, executive rest
room...
In addition, lunches are served by waitress (almost one per table) on expensive silver ware at fast food prices; the best is I only have to pay it once a month and it is treated as deductible business expense.
Yes, they do have exercise room with shower facility; also they have pool tables so you will never be bored. That's why our taxes are so high.
In addition, lunches are served by waitress (almost one per table) on expensive silver ware at fast food prices; the best is I only have to pay it once a month and it is treated as deductible business expense.
Yes, they do have exercise room with shower facility; also they have pool tables so you will never be bored. That's why our taxes are so high.
If you do not work, you do not eat
China does
not have a good tool for measuring unemployment. It is not required in
the communist days as everyone had a job and was paid the same. However,
I estimate they have one below 5%. The incentive is simple: If you do
not work, you do not eat.
As a contrast, we have generous welfare. The incentive of not working is simple: If you work, we take away your free health care...
As a contrast, we have generous welfare. The incentive of not working is simple: If you work, we take away your free health care...
Two-party political system is not good as expected
China's
president is selected by the handful of party members. It is like a CEO
controlled by the board in most large public companies in the USA. The
difference is the term for China's presidents.
When we are still arguing who's on top on the high-speed rail, China has built a huge network from nothing. Remember China was almost the last country to use steam locomotives and they could not build a reliable bicycle in the 50s. A lot of policies here are argued not for the merits but for which party the ideas are originated.
Most Chinese presidents are engineers and most of ours are lawyers which have more crooks (disguised as lawyers) than most other professions. I rest my case.
When we are still arguing who's on top on the high-speed rail, China has built a huge network from nothing. Remember China was almost the last country to use steam locomotives and they could not build a reliable bicycle in the 50s. A lot of policies here are argued not for the merits but for which party the ideas are originated.
Most Chinese presidents are engineers and most of ours are lawyers which have more crooks (disguised as lawyers) than most other professions. I rest my case.
Politicians, take notes
Politicians and prostitutes are the oldest professions. Guess which one has higher social standing? Yes, you're right.
http://bit.ly/1vHsW29
http://bit.ly/1vHsW29
Observe local custom?
Can a
foreign country do business in China without bribery? The short answer
is 'No'. The political answer is "Fine with personal connections". Now,
the suppressing of bribery leads to some deterioration in some sectors
such as gambling, golfing, restaurants...
Compared to India, it is not bad. As Einstein said, everything is relative.
Compared to India, it is not bad. As Einstein said, everything is relative.
Bribery, American style
We have our own bribery. To have more examples:
- When one party gets power, many government employees in DC area are let go. It is expensive to break in all these new employees to replace them. Do not worry as they all get jobs with companies they gave favor to and set up examples for the new employees.
- Do you think the children of the presidents and x-presidents get those good-paid jobs for their own merits? They take jobs from those who are more qualified.
The list is endless and guess who pay for those costly campaigns. Are we corrupt and claim we're not? If so, we're the hypocrites.
We should not expect others to follow our custom and belief. Respect and trust is a two-way street
- When one party gets power, many government employees in DC area are let go. It is expensive to break in all these new employees to replace them. Do not worry as they all get jobs with companies they gave favor to and set up examples for the new employees.
- Do you think the children of the presidents and x-presidents get those good-paid jobs for their own merits? They take jobs from those who are more qualified.
The list is endless and guess who pay for those costly campaigns. Are we corrupt and claim we're not? If so, we're the hypocrites.
We should not expect others to follow our custom and belief. Respect and trust is a two-way street
Bribery
Bribery is defined = Man with money + Man with power
Joke on Bill. PG 14.
http://bit.ly/1AzQOm2
Joke on Jack. PG 25.
http://bit.ly/1AzQMuu
Joke on Buffett. PG 80.
http://bit.ly/1DK0m0N
Joke on Bill. PG 14.
http://bit.ly/1AzQOm2
Joke on Jack. PG 25.
http://bit.ly/1AzQMuu
Joke on Buffett. PG 80.
http://bit.ly/1DK0m0N
Indonesia
Indonesia
will suffer more if they do not mend fences with China. I have the stock
PME, the only loser in my China portfolio of about 9. Most rivers in
China are polluted and Chinese depend on deep-sea fishing. Currently,
there is a dispute between Indonesia and China in fishing territory.
Indonesia is #4 in population from my memory. It has a lot of natural resources but a lot of natural disasters. Chinese immigrants help the economy (the same as in most countries in SE Asia). However, the historical discrimination against the Chinese do not fare well. The poor governance hammers the economy.
Are you looking for a gift to a college graduates? My new book "How to be a billionaire" could be a perfect gift and it keeps on gifting. For a limited time, all royalties go to the victims in Nepal
Indonesia is #4 in population from my memory. It has a lot of natural resources but a lot of natural disasters. Chinese immigrants help the economy (the same as in most countries in SE Asia). However, the historical discrimination against the Chinese do not fare well. The poor governance hammers the economy.
Are you looking for a gift to a college graduates? My new book "How to be a billionaire" could be a perfect gift and it keeps on gifting. For a limited time, all royalties go to the victims in Nepal
College or a trade school
Yes, trade
schools are better than colleges when you consider the rate of return.
However, you miss one or two important considerations.
1. It is the place to look for a spouse. A greasy lady (except in lady wrestling) does not sound too appealing to me and a lady chef could damage the family life.
2. Most if not all colleges do not teach their students how to manage finances. That's why most college kids max out their credits, not to mention the college loans (a conflict of interest?).
My book "How to be a billionaire" touches the saving part and not marrying a consumer-oriented spouse briefly (similar to our consumer-oriented government), but on how to invest by using simple market timing (average loss of a plunge is 45%) and how to buy the right ETFs to start.
The "billionaire" is attention catching, but saving 10 millions (in today's money for a graduate today to 65 is very doable
1. It is the place to look for a spouse. A greasy lady (except in lady wrestling) does not sound too appealing to me and a lady chef could damage the family life.
2. Most if not all colleges do not teach their students how to manage finances. That's why most college kids max out their credits, not to mention the college loans (a conflict of interest?).
My book "How to be a billionaire" touches the saving part and not marrying a consumer-oriented spouse briefly (similar to our consumer-oriented government), but on how to invest by using simple market timing (average loss of a plunge is 45%) and how to buy the right ETFs to start.
The "billionaire" is attention catching, but saving 10 millions (in today's money for a graduate today to 65 is very doable
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