Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Judgement day and the market YTD

Today is the judgement day for the politicians.

Most likely Hillary and Trump will win. If so, Bernie would drop out. Democratic party is different. Trump needs 50% otherwise he will not be selected by the party. I am looking for the less of the evils for the next president.

The market is positive for the year after losing about 10%. The election year is usually the second best year for the market after the year right before the election. There are many risky factors (time to do another market analysis).

Our market cycle is about 4 years. This is the eighth year and time for the market to crash? Well, stick with the technical indicator and you will fare better. It has been proven since 2000 but recently we have more false alarms. False alarms are fine as you just exit and come back shortly.

The Fed has changed all the market logic by printing money excessively. The interest rate has to raised eventually - bad for the market in the short term but good for long term.

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