Thursday, February 4, 2016

Market Timing as of 2/4/2016

Market timing as of 2/4/2016

When you pay between virtually nothing to $10 for an e-book on investing, most likely you do not follow what it preaches especially from the book written by an unknown author. It is just a human nature. My friends do not take it seriously on the market timing from my book which is given to them free. I am no exception. Before the fierce correction in August, 2015, I had only 50% cash. It should be 100% if I followed my charts.

It is easy to say “I told you so” today (2/4/2016). I just want to see how the technical indicators and fundamental metrics tell us today. The two technical indicators told us to exit the market and today they tell us not to return to the market. Fundamentally the market may not have plunged already as the average loss of the last two market plunges (2000 and 2008) is 45% from the peak.

Personally I bet against the falling oil price and have bought several high-value stocks.

Current Value
·         Technical

Death Cross1

SMA-50   = -4% &
SMA-200 = -5%
Do not return to equity

SMA= 205 &
SPY  = 102
Do not return
to equity

·         Fundamental

2 years
6 months
Do not return
to equity
Valuation (P/E)
Slightly expensive

Oil price

Interest rate

Not a factor

1 This is the market timing technique without using chart.


For more of my reasoning, check out the book described next. It has 800 pages (6*9) for $9.99. It could be the best $10 you ever spend.

The above is an abstract from my book "Complete the Art of Investing" which is available from Amazon.

I challenged to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 5 or more stocks in one year after the publish date. The concepts for that article are discussed in this book. 


  1. Hi Tony! I dabbled a little $4000 only to get my feet wet with ETF's......RYE and VWO.....I hope you're getting my comments on various posts of your blog.

    I am trying my best to spend an hour EVERY morning reading your book. Trying to understand it and realize that there is sooooo much out there that I don't know.

    I want to learn and not miss the opportunity to re-enter the market as you say. I am only doing ETFs because they are for the simple straight forwardness of just learning. Thank you for any and all input. I read your post each day and your book. Doing my best . My dad didn't have the gift of explaining like you do. I just wish I had listen more when he did talk!

    1. Hi JB, I do read your posts. My children are busy with their careers and are not interested in investing. I treat you as my own, haha. It is similar to teaching my children how to drive a car; may be it is similar to your dad teaching you. Ask any questions you have and you can also contact me via It is great to start with ETFs. My book Complete The Art of Investing is for advance beginners, mutual fund managers and between. If you can understand it, you're pretty good already as a beginner.