Monday, February 15, 2016


AAII publishes its screen performance every year. Here are some pointers.

·         Do not follow last year’s winners. I predicted 2015 was a sideway market and 2016 is a risky market that has a good chance to turn into a bear market.

·         During bear markets, the screens had loss from 10% to 83% with no winner. When the technical indicator SMA-350 or Death Cross tells you to exit, exit as there is no screen will find winners.

·         Every year from 2011 to 2015 is positive after adding the dividends. When the technical indicator SMA-350 or Death Cross tells you to invest, invest.

·         Some screens work great in one year and become big losers in another year. To conclude, there is no evergreen screen.

It does not go back to 2009, the last Early Recovery that has the best profit potential. I recommend value stocks for this stage of the market cycle.


For more of my reasoning, check out the book described next. It has 800 pages (6*9) for $9.99. It could be the best $10 you ever spend.

The above is an abstract from my book "Complete the Art of Investing" which is available from Amazon.

I challenged to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 5 or more stocks in one year after the publish date. The concepts for that article are discussed in this book. 

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