Monday, February 15, 2016

2015, the year the stock pickers die

2016 is the year when the stock pickers died too.  Ackman the famous hedge fund manager and Buffett the legend both did not do well in 2015. Furthermore, I checked the performances of many gurus from I found most gurus did not beat S&P 500 for the last 5 years but they did in the last 10 years.  

Most AAII screens were negative in 2015 and did not beat S&P 500.  Traders make money in a sideward market at the expense of the stock pickers. In other words, technical beats fundamental in 2015.

I reviewed the performances of many gurus. I was surprised for the last five years it is far better to invest in an ETF fund that stimulates the market such as SPY. In general, most cannot beat SPY for the last 3 years and I estimated less than 50% beating SPY in the last 5 years. However, there are more gurus beating SPY in the last 10 years. I speculate that when they become famous, they cannot handle the extra funds to invest. The market may not be rational for the last 5 years or all of them chase the same group of stocks.

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