Tuesday, November 3, 2015

The current market

I'm reading an article by Sarah from Barron's on how to use hedge fund techniques to maximize gain while minimizing risk based on the so called Modern Portfolio Theory. The article is full of convincing data. But, from my REAL experiences, they do not work. Otherwise, we would not have any poor folks. You need to exit/return the market by following some simple techniques as described in my books.

My following articles demolish her entire article. They are copied from my book The Art of Investing.

Click here for Hedge Fund according to me.
Click here for Modern Portfolio Theory according to me.

The following are my predictions.

It is a side way market: Buy at dips and sell at temporary surges. So far so good as predicted. I put my money where my big mouth is.

Even if they are super stocks, I still sell them (one too early but I need the cash to buy). Click here for my performance. They are real trades, not the ones you used to see in the ads.
For more, click here.

I predict we should have a small gain for the entire year of 2015. Why? From my recent memory, there is no down year including 2007 in a year before election. No one is 100% sure, but the more educated the guess, the higher chance the guess will materialize.

2016 is more dangerous due to the record-high margin, strong USD and my theory "What's go up must come down" (Newton's gravity theory looking from another direction :)). It is described in my book Profit from 2016 Market Crash. Even if there is no crash in 2016 (not likely according to me), the insurance is justifiable over any possible gain, which should be smaller than peanuts.

One best seller convinces you to sell in 2009 and even in 2014 in later editions. Great English, great credential... But if you followed them, you would miss all the big gain. I had 80% gain in my largest taxable account in 2009. Market timing is based on technical charts and a simple one without using charts, not by a Ph.D. degree, good looks (I do not mean I do not have good look :))...

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