The number two economy offers huge resources and internal market. We've seen many examples like Apple. Apple first uses the cheap, educated, and flexible labor of China. In addition, it uses its technical resources of about 40,000 technicians and engineers. Now, Apple is making tons of money in selling Apple products to China.
The late Sam Walton objected importing Chinese products by selling products made in US for a few percentage higher. He underestimated the 'percentage' by a wide margin. Now WalMart is the best trade partner for China and makes tons of profits after changing its policy.
So are many bankrupting companies being rescued by China like GM and A123. China has a tendency to over-pay, but in the long run it could be a strategic move to speed up modernization of its technology.
The recent example is bringing movie 3D technology to China to cater the huge movie audience there. First is the Dreamworks and now is Carmeron.
Monday, August 20, 2012
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Market today
It is the highest for a while. I do not think the market value is justified.
If there is a sell-off, the dividend stocks and the high-valued stocks could fare better and the cyclical stocks that are doing quite good recently will suffer most.
I still prefer high-yield corporate bonds (i.e. junk) and bonds from emerging countries over municipal bonds, which may have more defaults if we include those unrated munis.
Cisco is my surprise winner after boosting dividend rate from 1.8% to 3.2%. I expected it to recover in 3 years and most of my holdings have over 12% (some as high as 25%) in a very short time. Thanks for the herd who pays outrageous premiums for dividend stocks. Are they fools or I'm a bigger fool? Only time can tell.
If there is a sell-off, the dividend stocks and the high-valued stocks could fare better and the cyclical stocks that are doing quite good recently will suffer most.
I still prefer high-yield corporate bonds (i.e. junk) and bonds from emerging countries over municipal bonds, which may have more defaults if we include those unrated munis.
Cisco is my surprise winner after boosting dividend rate from 1.8% to 3.2%. I expected it to recover in 3 years and most of my holdings have over 12% (some as high as 25%) in a very short time. Thanks for the herd who pays outrageous premiums for dividend stocks. Are they fools or I'm a bigger fool? Only time can tell.
The experience of writing a book
With today's technology, writing a book does not cost me much. The paper book is printed on demand, so you do not have to print a lot and store them. The tools to build a book are easy to learn/use and save us a lot of time and effort.
Due to many new books competing (basically every one who has plenty of time should enjoy writing a book), it is hard to make a buck if this is your first book and/or you're a nobody like myself. Finding good reviewers is tough; one is working on 8 books to review. So, most of us do it for fun especially you are holding a printed book in your name. I find it enjoyable and relaxing in writing the book. It could be an excellent hobby for most.
It will take some time even the tools are quite easy. The experience is fun for me. My son designed a nice cover for me. I forgot the spine and the back cover. I paid $100 for proof reading. It was outsourced to India and the job is just so-so; she did not expect repeated business. I found many errors from my own proof reading.
Besides the $25 for 'extensive marketing' and another $25 for 'reviews' that could be a total loss, I spend about $3.5 for each of my book I order. The total cost could be less than $200.
The printed book is fine. The Kindle version needs a lot of changes due to the smaller screen and the format program from Word to Kindle needs some works.
Marketing is the key. I take advantage of free marketing by putting comments on related articles in the web. I treat spending big money in marketing the book as an investment. Until I see the return, I will not risk a lot.
I am working on another book on investment. If I do not sell many, it will be for my own use. If I do not sell many, it could be the most useful book as the strategies described in the book are not widely used. Will improve the book with new articles free to the current readers in the web.
I know why most writers are starving. I'm glad I do not need money from these ebooks. I do not have to spend much time as they're already written in my blog. Financially it comes ahead with a lot of tax deductible expenses.
Due to many new books competing (basically every one who has plenty of time should enjoy writing a book), it is hard to make a buck if this is your first book and/or you're a nobody like myself. Finding good reviewers is tough; one is working on 8 books to review. So, most of us do it for fun especially you are holding a printed book in your name. I find it enjoyable and relaxing in writing the book. It could be an excellent hobby for most.
It will take some time even the tools are quite easy. The experience is fun for me. My son designed a nice cover for me. I forgot the spine and the back cover. I paid $100 for proof reading. It was outsourced to India and the job is just so-so; she did not expect repeated business. I found many errors from my own proof reading.
Besides the $25 for 'extensive marketing' and another $25 for 'reviews' that could be a total loss, I spend about $3.5 for each of my book I order. The total cost could be less than $200.
The printed book is fine. The Kindle version needs a lot of changes due to the smaller screen and the format program from Word to Kindle needs some works.
Marketing is the key. I take advantage of free marketing by putting comments on related articles in the web. I treat spending big money in marketing the book as an investment. Until I see the return, I will not risk a lot.
I am working on another book on investment. If I do not sell many, it will be for my own use. If I do not sell many, it could be the most useful book as the strategies described in the book are not widely used. Will improve the book with new articles free to the current readers in the web.
I know why most writers are starving. I'm glad I do not need money from these ebooks. I do not have to spend much time as they're already written in my blog. Financially it comes ahead with a lot of tax deductible expenses.
Friday, August 10, 2012
The human spirits of the Olympics
The human spirits of the Olympics
It shows the best of us and the worst of us during the Olympics.
First start with the controversy that the US Olympic attires are made in China. What attires are made in USA?
Despite the no positive testing from the Olympics committee, John Leonard accused the 'suspicious' Chinese 16-year-old swimmer. Another US swimmer from nowhere did the same and no one accused her of doping. Guess which country is among those whose athletes have been tested positive? Not China. He represents the silly swimming coaches, but not me.
Then the media got into the wagon as controversy sells. The ‘prestigious’ Nature magazine did apologize in the web; due to the pressures from their sponsors? Some pointed out the human sufferings of the athletes in China. They forgot the same sufferings of the US athletes and their parents. Some were bankrupt and many do not get good jobs after the game despite a fistful of former medalists making good money. At least there is no sexual abuse reported on Chinese coaches. If they have sex with a 14 year old or below, it is automatic, death penalty. If we have the same rule, many coaches in US should die and we would not have clergymen molesting altar boys as part of the sport.
Some argued China should win more medals as their population is four times ours. From this logic, India should be #2. They forgot it is not the population, but the resources per capita or GNP per capita that matters.
China never wants to be #1 as US always wants. I’m glad China is behind in medal counts by now. The disqualification in badminton game is good. The timing is bad as it happened before. It is the rules of the game to be blamed, then the coaches who plan for win according to the game rules, and then the athletes. I would be angry to watch this game that I pay good money for.
We need to understand the Olympics will not solve our global problems such as debts, poverty and even obesity that the Olympics should promote as opposing to be #1, jealousy, bias and other bad human natures. US is a nation of fatsos but score the most Olympic medals for centuries. How ironic!
We need to understand the Olympics will not solve our global problems such as debts, poverty and even obesity that the Olympics should promote as opposing to be #1, jealousy, bias and other bad human natures. US is a nation of fatsos but score the most Olympic medals for centuries. How ironic!
The better human spirits are shown by the Muslim girl. I wonder what they wear in beach volleyball. Religion needs to adapt to the global culture to some extent. The amputated athlete won our hearts. He could be the only one who participates in two Olympics in the same year. The Malaysian diver just lifted the spirit of a nation, same as the one Hong Kong won a long while ago and same for the first Tibetan who won an Olympic medal. These are the treasures and why we enjoy the Olympics.
There are other 75 similar articles:http://ebtonypow.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-nation-of-no-losers.html
Sunday, August 5, 2012
A Nation of No Losers
This is the title article and also the name of the book I just wrote. I gathered the ideas from this blog and rewrote many of them. Click here for the description.
http://ebtonypow.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-nation-of-no-losers.html
http://ebtonypow.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-nation-of-no-losers.html
Friday, July 27, 2012
Table of content of this blog
Contrary to what you're thinking, my primary reason of blogging is not because of the plenty of free time in my early retirement. English is not my native language and being an ITer I have not written much during my career. I have never taken courses in social science and investment besides the required in college. It has to be the fun of trying something different and I enjoy it so far.
I find a lot of newspaper and on-line articles particular on China look right but are totally wrong. I try to use common sense to argue against them.
As I'm not using my full name, I'm not blogging for promoting myself and I have nothing to sell you. You may feel offended sometimes as I blog honestly and I do not care about political correctness and popular opinions (I'm not running for a political job).
Click the highlighted to access the blog. Hence, this blog serves as a rough table of content of the better blogs I wrote for last several years.
My contributions.
* The reason of secular stock market. As indicated by many articles, we've secular market about 20 years interval. My contribution is the cause. It is most likely due to wars for secular bear markets (Vietnam and the two current wars) or lack of for secular bull markets. The next, new bull secular market could start in 2015.
* Coconut Theory on why some natives are lazy naturally. So far no one objects or they're too lazy to defend themselves.
* Global Aging Demographics. I blogged years ago that India's explosive population growth is no good for India and the world. However, even today the popular belief of a larger and younger population is better for India including an article by a professor in a prestigious college.
* How Hong Kong gets so wealthy? A Stanford professor in a syndicated article (it means it has been published in most newspapers that Sunday) told the world that the British rule could make a poor country prosperous using Hong Kong as an example. I argued it was totally wrong and the primary reason for Hong Kong's wealth is its closeness to China then and now.
* Debunking some of Buffett's preachings. I only blog if my views are different to popular beliefs/opinions as I do not want to waste the bandwidth and electronic ink not counting wasting your time. Actually most investing heroes are not doing good recently.
Defending China.
The politicians cannot fix our problems and use China as a convenient scapegoat. Many newspapers, TV stations... want to sell their stuffs by giving what you want to hear/see by twisting the facts.
As a Chinese American, I am naturally biased but I'll not let my dumb nationalism to cover my eyes or yours. There are Chinese bashers and US bashers who do not convince us as they're not using facts. They promote distrust, confrontation, ... that I try to avoid.
Tibet. This comment has over 350 'likes' in an Economist's article. I estimate there are 3,500 reads (using 1 'like' to 10 readers) on this long comment. Initially I faced many resentment from folks esp. from Tibetans in other articles.
Human Right. This blog has ignited discussions and scored some points for China. This one and the last one change the image of China for some.
China is a victim instead of an aggressor for last 250 years. A MUST read for Brits and Japanese.
Economy: Currency, Rare Earth, Quality. Space Station, Tariff,
Wealth,
Social topics: Intelligence Property, Environment, Africa, Hong Kong, Child Labor ,
India, Politics,
What China should do in next 5 years.
US and socially speaking.
A Nation of No Losers. Quite popular. You can laugh and cry at the same time.
Trade War with China.
Our trade with China
Conflict with China
Lessons from Wars.
US and Wars
Efficient charities.
How to solve the trade imbalance
Dear recent college graduates,
Socialism could lead to self-destruction.
Why the wealth gap widens
Is Social Security going to survive?
Should we blame all our ills on China.
Is China friend or foe?
Extremes of Two Nations
Fixing the economy.
Why China is so poor and US so rich.
Effective Health Care Delivery.
Education by example
iGeneration
God of Gods
Defining freedom
Political parties and the economy
Corruption, American style
Our problems, solutions and implementations
Efficient Charities
Stock Market.
Market Top. My crystal ball in April is quite right.
Market Timing. II
Spotting big market plunges
Market timing on asset classes
Strategies for secular bull and bear markets
Recovery or W-shaped recession?
A prolonged recession
When stock is over-priced
Invest Responsibly.
The mysteries of P/E.
Diversification.
Sell shorts.
Covered calls.
Should you hold a stock forever.
Newsletters/subscriptions.
Hedge Fund 101
2011, when stock pickers die
Advice for retirees.
Dividend stock problems.
Sectors you want to avoid.
Stop Loss.
Refining Dogs of Dow Strategy.
Looking for a multi bagger
Technical Analysis.
Bonds.
Modern Portfolio Theories.
Investment Psychology 101.
Retirees, take notice.
The evils of QE
Housing recovery?
Identifying Earnings Season Overreaction Opportunities
Different strategies
Volatility and Momentum
Distorting indexes
Fun and Jokes.
Even if you do not agree everything I said, hope some jokes would give you a laugh. If you get offended, you should check in your closest clinic esp. the humor department. It is not easy to write jokes that are totally unoffensive.
A + B
My day as a farmer. A real story to be told to my grand children.
Diets that always work. Offensive to fatsos.
No Nativity Scene. Offensive to politicians.
Women.
Politicians and prostitutes
How to save the airline industry. PG 17.
My stupid name is Boris.
Celebration of Olympic Bronze.
Lady missing a fight.
Playing lotteries.
Lady missing a flight
Misc.
One paragraph could change your health and life
The best in life
Religion
--------
The following are the best blogs from my other blog. It is a collection of good articles/jokes circulated to me.
Jokes:
The new student from India. Very funny!
Break the promise PG 17
The 11th husband PG 17.
Living in 2009
Funny Acronyms
Dear Employees
Graduation pictures from China, USA,Japan PG17. Does not work all the time.
Gift for mom
Bishop goes to Hollywood
Sex for seniors
How Staten Island got its name
How 'America' got the name
Who actually is Jesus.
China:
The Yellow Flower Uprising.
Letter from a patriot
Health:
I find a lot of newspaper and on-line articles particular on China look right but are totally wrong. I try to use common sense to argue against them.
As I'm not using my full name, I'm not blogging for promoting myself and I have nothing to sell you. You may feel offended sometimes as I blog honestly and I do not care about political correctness and popular opinions (I'm not running for a political job).
Click the highlighted to access the blog. Hence, this blog serves as a rough table of content of the better blogs I wrote for last several years.
My contributions.
* The reason of secular stock market. As indicated by many articles, we've secular market about 20 years interval. My contribution is the cause. It is most likely due to wars for secular bear markets (Vietnam and the two current wars) or lack of for secular bull markets. The next, new bull secular market could start in 2015.
* Coconut Theory on why some natives are lazy naturally. So far no one objects or they're too lazy to defend themselves.
* Global Aging Demographics. I blogged years ago that India's explosive population growth is no good for India and the world. However, even today the popular belief of a larger and younger population is better for India including an article by a professor in a prestigious college.
* How Hong Kong gets so wealthy? A Stanford professor in a syndicated article (it means it has been published in most newspapers that Sunday) told the world that the British rule could make a poor country prosperous using Hong Kong as an example. I argued it was totally wrong and the primary reason for Hong Kong's wealth is its closeness to China then and now.
* Debunking some of Buffett's preachings. I only blog if my views are different to popular beliefs/opinions as I do not want to waste the bandwidth and electronic ink not counting wasting your time. Actually most investing heroes are not doing good recently.
Defending China.
The politicians cannot fix our problems and use China as a convenient scapegoat. Many newspapers, TV stations... want to sell their stuffs by giving what you want to hear/see by twisting the facts.
As a Chinese American, I am naturally biased but I'll not let my dumb nationalism to cover my eyes or yours. There are Chinese bashers and US bashers who do not convince us as they're not using facts. They promote distrust, confrontation, ... that I try to avoid.
Tibet. This comment has over 350 'likes' in an Economist's article. I estimate there are 3,500 reads (using 1 'like' to 10 readers) on this long comment. Initially I faced many resentment from folks esp. from Tibetans in other articles.
Human Right. This blog has ignited discussions and scored some points for China. This one and the last one change the image of China for some.
China is a victim instead of an aggressor for last 250 years. A MUST read for Brits and Japanese.
Economy: Currency, Rare Earth, Quality. Space Station, Tariff,
Wealth,
Social topics: Intelligence Property, Environment, Africa, Hong Kong, Child Labor ,
India, Politics,
What China should do in next 5 years.
US and socially speaking.
A Nation of No Losers. Quite popular. You can laugh and cry at the same time.
Trade War with China.
Our trade with China
Conflict with China
Lessons from Wars.
US and Wars
Efficient charities.
How to solve the trade imbalance
Dear recent college graduates,
Socialism could lead to self-destruction.
Why the wealth gap widens
Is Social Security going to survive?
Should we blame all our ills on China.
Is China friend or foe?
Extremes of Two Nations
Fixing the economy.
Why China is so poor and US so rich.
Effective Health Care Delivery.
Education by example
iGeneration
God of Gods
Defining freedom
Political parties and the economy
Corruption, American style
Our problems, solutions and implementations
Efficient Charities
Stock Market.
Market Top. My crystal ball in April is quite right.
Market Timing. II
Spotting big market plunges
Market timing on asset classes
Strategies for secular bull and bear markets
Recovery or W-shaped recession?
A prolonged recession
When stock is over-priced
Invest Responsibly.
The mysteries of P/E.
Diversification.
Sell shorts.
Covered calls.
Should you hold a stock forever.
Newsletters/subscriptions.
Hedge Fund 101
2011, when stock pickers die
Advice for retirees.
Dividend stock problems.
Sectors you want to avoid.
Stop Loss.
Refining Dogs of Dow Strategy.
Looking for a multi bagger
Technical Analysis.
Bonds.
Modern Portfolio Theories.
Investment Psychology 101.
Retirees, take notice.
The evils of QE
Housing recovery?
Identifying Earnings Season Overreaction Opportunities
Different strategies
Volatility and Momentum
Distorting indexes
Fun and Jokes.
Even if you do not agree everything I said, hope some jokes would give you a laugh. If you get offended, you should check in your closest clinic esp. the humor department. It is not easy to write jokes that are totally unoffensive.
A + B
My day as a farmer. A real story to be told to my grand children.
Diets that always work. Offensive to fatsos.
No Nativity Scene. Offensive to politicians.
Women.
Politicians and prostitutes
How to save the airline industry. PG 17.
My stupid name is Boris.
Celebration of Olympic Bronze.
Lady missing a fight.
Playing lotteries.
Lady missing a flight
Misc.
One paragraph could change your health and life
The best in life
Religion
--------
The following are the best blogs from my other blog. It is a collection of good articles/jokes circulated to me.
Jokes:
The new student from India. Very funny!
Break the promise PG 17
The 11th husband PG 17.
Living in 2009
Funny Acronyms
Dear Employees
Graduation pictures from China, USA,Japan PG17. Does not work all the time.
Gift for mom
Bishop goes to Hollywood
Sex for seniors
How Staten Island got its name
How 'America' got the name
Who actually is Jesus.
洞房花燭夜之「一字成語」
有趣的廣東俗語
笑話一則
China:
The Yellow Flower Uprising.
Letter from a patriot
中國人不可不知道的知識
Health:
吃維他命不如吃咖哩
6 Great Foods
50 health hints (in Chinese)
廉價靈芝
十穀米 - 10 grains
吃蝦的時候喝橙汁等於自殺 - Shrimp & orange
中風徵兆-- 請記住 "STR" 三个字
Misc.
Amazing picture
人生得意需盡歡
(c) 2009-2012 TonyP4
Monday, July 23, 2012
Contrarian investing
An article said
" Look for extremes in market sentiment and investing activity … and do the opposite."
I agree to some extend, especially in today's sideway market.
However, if the long-term trend is down (i.e. moving to a W-shaped recession), you want to wait longer before you move back in.
If we're heading to the same path as Japan's lost decades, you may want to wait even longer.
If we're heading to a secular bull market (not today), then waiting too long will be bad as every investor including your mother-in-law would be a genius.
What I try to say is we need to watch the market direction carefully.
Read the following link and its comments on market conditions.
http://bit.ly/JbvI6C
" Look for extremes in market sentiment and investing activity … and do the opposite."
I agree to some extend, especially in today's sideway market.
However, if the long-term trend is down (i.e. moving to a W-shaped recession), you want to wait longer before you move back in.
If we're heading to the same path as Japan's lost decades, you may want to wait even longer.
If we're heading to a secular bull market (not today), then waiting too long will be bad as every investor including your mother-in-law would be a genius.
What I try to say is we need to watch the market direction carefully.
Read the following link and its comments on market conditions.
http://bit.ly/JbvI6C
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