Anniversary

From Seeking Alpha:

"Today marks the seven-year anniversary of the current bull market for U.S. stocks, which have logged more than 84 months without posting a decline of 20% that marks a retreat into bear territory. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, the current bull run is the third-longest on record, with the average lasting slightly less than 59 months. How much have U.S. indexes gained since March 9, 2009? Dow +159%; S&P 500 +193%; Nasdaq +266%.".

2009 could be my best year in stock investing. Here is my write-up.

I had 80% return in 2009 in my largest taxable account. I did not include it in my other books before as I just found out the written statement.

This is the best time to make a profit: Early Recovery defined in my stages of a market cycle. My chart told me to start move to equity in September, 2009. I did in March, 2009 with other reasons. It could be luck, technique or both.

I did dip into my credit line of my equity loan (not recommended to most). I did not use it as a margin loan as most folks do, but as a saving from the lower rates than my broker’s rate. I paid back the loan right after I sold some stocks. The turnaround was high until I exhausted my short-term losses (tax loss harvest).

The strategy is bottom fishing: finding value stocks. Some sectors described in my book are better in this stage of the market cycle.

I had similar success in 2003. I did not have defined bottom fishing technique at that time. I expected the market to be fully recovered in two years. From Value Line, I selected stocks with high “Projected 3-5 year returns” and the short-term assets can last for two more years (judged by the burnt rates).

However, the story has not ended. I am looking another crash in 2016 and hopefully another recovery. After 2009, I had been too cautious (leaving a good percentage in cash). Win some and lose some.  


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For more of my reasoning, check out the book described next. It has 800 pages (6*9) for $9.99. It could be the best $10 you ever spend.

The above is an abstract from my book "Complete the Art of Investing" which is available from Amazon.

I challenged to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 5 or more stocks in one year after the publish date. The concepts for that article are discussed in this book.