Saturday, June 14, 2014

Seeking Alpha comment on 6/13 (Friday)

  • * As illustrated in the Headline chapter in my books, buy oil when a war in Middle East is coming (similar to buying coffee when too much or too less rain in S. America) and sell it when it is over or less chance to happen. Making tiny drops of profit from the headlines could turn into a river of profit. I do not do what I wrote due to my available time.

    * Intel and several high tech companies are good buys based on the expected P/Es. The best strategy (also described in my books) is buy low and sell high (based on the expected P/Es, not based on prices). I do own several.

    * If I were Musk, I would sell Tesla to an established company such as BMW. I predicted last year that most (if not all) bubble stocks including Tesla will lose half of their peaks in 2013 by the end of 2014. So far, so good. Usually I do not short (I do buy some contra ETFs now) or recommend shorting as it is too risky for my stomach.

    Building a dealer's network is very expensive and it is illegal to sell cars without dealers in many states. A battery revolution could change the fortune of this company overnight.

    Those who think buying a $80,000 car is green conscious are plain wrong. First, the electricity is still generated mostly by non-green generators. How about buy a $30,000 car and donate the $50,000 to green research (deductible and makes you feel good). To me, the buyers are boosting their ego (same as camping to buy the new iPhone), but the oldest profession can do a better job and at far less cost - just an observation. :)

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