Friday, June 27, 2014

Is a correction coming?

I see 15% correction due to the recent market rise. Though corrections are harder to detect than market plunges, I still have more rights than wrongs. There are many ways to protect yourself besides accumulating cash as illustrated in my book Market Timing: Profitable, Predictable and Preventive. 

The chance of a correction is high: 

1. All the technical indicators show the market is peaking and overbought.

2. Newton's Law of Gravity has never been proven wrong. What's goes up must come down.

3. We did not have one in 2013, so the time is ripe. The average is about one correction of 10% or more for a year.

4. Many articles on this coming correction could be a self-fulfilling prophesy.

5. Today's low volume indicates that the market may be changing direction. 

6. With the market that high, it does not convince me that I can make a lot of profit even if there is no correction.

I guess it would happen before the institution managers take vacations. These are the folks who move the market, not us the retail investors. Am I 100% sure? No. However, if it does not happen, I treat it as buying insurance (you buy it not hoping accidents happen). A good sleep is worth all the gold in the world.

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