With the most likely increase in dividend tax rate in 2013, some cash-rich companies, esp. the smaller ones with a lot of insider ownership, may give a large ex-dividend (like $10 for a $15 stock) before the end of the year. The stock price should be adjusted accordingly in theory.
If you have a buy order for this kind of stocks, you may pay more than the market prices. To illustrate, you have a buy order for the mentioned company at $14 ($1 off the current price). After the dividend of $10, in theory the price of the stock falls to $5 and your order is executed at $14. You have an instant loss of $9 and since you have not met the requirement of owning the stock at a specific date, you may not get the $10 dividend.
I do not say it will happen for most of your buy orders as I do not know how the SEC handles this specific scenario. Just be careful.
Friday, September 28, 2012
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Careful on what you read
Especially on articles on investing.
One guy gives financial advices on how to invest and he has never invested $1 in the stock market in his life.
One lady clips coupons while writing articles to tell us how to invest. For her age, it is not possible for her to give any investing lessons to retirees from real experiences.
Surprisingly they are both popular. We have to blame ourselves if we screw us in following their advices.
I praise the writers who describe their bad experiences and mistakes. We can learn from them.
One guy gives financial advices on how to invest and he has never invested $1 in the stock market in his life.
One lady clips coupons while writing articles to tell us how to invest. For her age, it is not possible for her to give any investing lessons to retirees from real experiences.
Surprisingly they are both popular. We have to blame ourselves if we screw us in following their advices.
I praise the writers who describe their bad experiences and mistakes. We can learn from them.
Stock over priced indicator?
I came across the following. Will find time to prove it. Sounds logical.
Looking at the small cap banks KRE as a valuation indicator, it's at PB=1 same as XLF.
The biggest crashes came when one of two sectors are excessively overvalued, XLF or XLF:
neither one is right now. XLK is at PE=17 XLF at PB=1
Even if the SPY is to correct, it will just be like the one last year, 15-20% that's easily endured.
Looking at the small cap banks KRE as a valuation indicator, it's at PB=1 same as XLF.
The biggest crashes came when one of two sectors are excessively overvalued, XLF or XLF:
neither one is right now. XLK is at PE=17 XLF at PB=1
Even if the SPY is to correct, it will just be like the one last year, 15-20% that's easily endured.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Advices for retirees
Here are the blogs related to the topic:
Retirees, take note.
http://bit.ly/NBRygH
Advice for a 70 year old
http://bit.ly/I5eeax
The best investment idea that has nothing to do with money.
Advice for the richer retirees.
http://bit.ly/QfCHLM
Forget AARP.
http://bit.ly/PfuIi0
There are real experiences from me and my friends.
Retirees, take note.
http://bit.ly/NBRygH
Advice for a 70 year old
http://bit.ly/I5eeax
The best investment idea that has nothing to do with money.
Advice for the richer retirees.
http://bit.ly/QfCHLM
Forget AARP.
http://bit.ly/PfuIi0
There are real experiences from me and my friends.
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Tang and Sung
Tang could be the most powerful period. I am surprised that Sung has higher per capita GDP.
When the country is rich ancient or present, they have time to develop art, poems, music...
Try Google with Tang GDP and this link appears.
----
I read something like "Once Chinese wore silk dresses and lived in houses, and the west lived wore animal skins and lived in caves".
Will try to identify the period. Seems to be earlier than 2000 B.C.
It does not mean anything except to boost my dumb nationalism. It is similar to Cheng Ho. Even if he discovered America first, his influence was nil compared to Columbus.
When the country is rich ancient or present, they have time to develop art, poems, music...
Try Google with Tang GDP and this link appears.
----
I read something like "Once Chinese wore silk dresses and lived in houses, and the west lived wore animal skins and lived in caves".
Will try to identify the period. Seems to be earlier than 2000 B.C.
It does not mean anything except to boost my dumb nationalism. It is similar to Cheng Ho. Even if he discovered America first, his influence was nil compared to Columbus.
When U.S. cannot pay back the debts
It is not possible for us to pay back our debts for generations. In a
capitalist system, if you cannot pay your mortgage, your house is
foreclosed. It should happen to the countries, but in reality it does not. Assuming
we can, here are my suggestions.
1. Sell Alaska to Russia in exchange for oil as China insists not to receive the depreciating USD which is another scheme to lower the debt burden. Include the big-mouth Sarah P. and her dysfunctional family as a compulsory clause, not a bonus.
2. Sell Hawaii to Japan. We're very smart here as Japanese already own Hawaii, like selling something we do not have in the first place. Smart move.
3. Sell NYC to China. NYC was originally owned by Indians who were Chinese and lost their way after too many Ma Ties and crossed the frozen strait. I have my genes to prove it. Consider no capital gain tax which could be astronomical. We're the smartest folks on earth.
4. California to the highest bidder. Most likely the successful bidder is a drug lord who could improve the distribution routes and buy gun easier to enforce their kingdom. Do it early before the big earthquake, which could make California a liability instead of an asset (Japan is a recent example).
--
At one time we have enough USD to buy Canada. What happens?
1. Sell Alaska to Russia in exchange for oil as China insists not to receive the depreciating USD which is another scheme to lower the debt burden. Include the big-mouth Sarah P. and her dysfunctional family as a compulsory clause, not a bonus.
2. Sell Hawaii to Japan. We're very smart here as Japanese already own Hawaii, like selling something we do not have in the first place. Smart move.
3. Sell NYC to China. NYC was originally owned by Indians who were Chinese and lost their way after too many Ma Ties and crossed the frozen strait. I have my genes to prove it. Consider no capital gain tax which could be astronomical. We're the smartest folks on earth.
4. California to the highest bidder. Most likely the successful bidder is a drug lord who could improve the distribution routes and buy gun easier to enforce their kingdom. Do it early before the big earthquake, which could make California a liability instead of an asset (Japan is a recent example).
--
At one time we have enough USD to buy Canada. What happens?
Zero sum game?
Every trade consists of a winner and a loser. It is important to stay in the winner side. The argument saying trading is not important as they can be a loser or they do not want others to suffer does not make a lot of sense to me.
To illustrate, I sold all my tech sectors in the beginning of April 2000 (should be earlier). I made my profit and I do not really care who are the losers on the other side of the trade. It enforces the point that timing is important and stocks with P/Es over 50 are risky. Simple concept similar to 'greed and fear' repeats itself time after time.
To illustrate, I sold all my tech sectors in the beginning of April 2000 (should be earlier). I made my profit and I do not really care who are the losers on the other side of the trade. It enforces the point that timing is important and stocks with P/Es over 50 are risky. Simple concept similar to 'greed and fear' repeats itself time after time.
AARP
I'll not renew my subscription.
AARP's main purpose is to sell you insurance policy to supplement your Medicare.
In doing so, it is making his management rich and powerful. The president candidates have to listen to them. They're taking advantage of the non-profit organization for their own benefits.
AARP's main purpose is to sell you insurance policy to supplement your Medicare.
In doing so, it is making his management rich and powerful. The president candidates have to listen to them. They're taking advantage of the non-profit organization for their own benefits.
Buy anf forget
Many stocks today belong
to my "Buy and forget until the economy returns". I believe the economy will return in 3 to 5
years. Who knows except God and my time machine.
They are:
FXI.
I'm still looking for the better entry points.
Cisco.
Bought several times. In most metrics, Cisco is sound financially. They raise dividends to boost the stock price; it demonstrates why the CEOs can benefit from their options by raising the dividend and the huge premium of dividend.
Beside from another Chinese company, they do not have many competitors except from the poor economy. It belongs to my list 'Buy and Forget (until the economy returns)". My buys in July have appreciated more than 25% - thanks to the 10% rise when they announced dividend boost.
The stock only gains 6% YTD but I have 25%. Hence, timing is everything. I do expect it will rise and fall with the economic news. I will not be surprised if my profit goes to zero, but will be very surprised if it does not gain me another 25% in next 3 years.
Cat.
Bought several times. It is rising slower than Cisco. The mines and construction projects will buy their equipment when the economy returns.
Intel.
Bought one time. Apple will not kill Intel. There are two markets: consumer and business.
There are many deeply valued stocks. Buy them and do not care about the price fluctuations for the next three years. We are buying them against the tide and we need to have patience. From their expected P/Es and the last average P/Es, they're valued.
They are:
FXI.
I'm still looking for the better entry points.
Cisco.
Bought several times. In most metrics, Cisco is sound financially. They raise dividends to boost the stock price; it demonstrates why the CEOs can benefit from their options by raising the dividend and the huge premium of dividend.
Beside from another Chinese company, they do not have many competitors except from the poor economy. It belongs to my list 'Buy and Forget (until the economy returns)". My buys in July have appreciated more than 25% - thanks to the 10% rise when they announced dividend boost.
The stock only gains 6% YTD but I have 25%. Hence, timing is everything. I do expect it will rise and fall with the economic news. I will not be surprised if my profit goes to zero, but will be very surprised if it does not gain me another 25% in next 3 years.
Cat.
Bought several times. It is rising slower than Cisco. The mines and construction projects will buy their equipment when the economy returns.
Intel.
Bought one time. Apple will not kill Intel. There are two markets: consumer and business.
There are many deeply valued stocks. Buy them and do not care about the price fluctuations for the next three years. We are buying them against the tide and we need to have patience. From their expected P/Es and the last average P/Es, they're valued.
Why consider natural gas?
Natural gas
and the companies involved will be gainers next year:
1. More coal and oil generators will be converted to gas where gas is abundant,
2. more liquified gas will be available to export to countries like Japan, and
3. this coming winter may not be that warm as the last one.
1. More coal and oil generators will be converted to gas where gas is abundant,
2. more liquified gas will be available to export to countries like Japan, and
3. this coming winter may not be that warm as the last one.
Is Volt an angel or a devil?
Financially Volt is no angel. It drives GM to the brink of bankruptcy. Without it, the investors of the new GM could make more money. The owners do not have good resale value.
Calculate how much you save in 5 years and estimate how many miles you drive a year. Most likely it will not pay back the extra investment / maintenance (two drive trains) / reliability (you may want to consider life insurance in case of battery explosion), minus the extra electricity bills, minus the inconvenience of charging (your time as a Volt's driver must be more expensive than a Corolla's.), finding a qualified mechanic (except from the dealer who will charge the sucker a bundle), minus tickets for driving too slowly...
Why folks buy it besides the rebates from the government (at least at one time)? It is the same as folks camping in line to buy the new iPhone to replace the one just they bought several months ago. Don't tell me the iPhone would improve the productivity after they have wasted one night camping in the cold.
They want to be the first one in their town to own a Volt and show the world they're green conscious (that is debatable). It boosts their social standing and 'prestige' to some, It is not for me even if I had the money. Well, it could save them money of seeing a psychiatrist who could help them to boost their ego.
There is a very small handful of folks buying the car for the good of the environment. It is debatable as I said before. There is no convincing figure that it will reduce carbon dioxide emission significantly even with 10% of cars are electric. However, I have to thank the electric car owners and government rebates. Without them, we will never have a truly usable and affordable electric car in the future.
The battery technology is evolving. It may take at least 10 years for M.I.T. and the professor to deliver the next breakthrough to a commercial product. I also wonder how long it takes to drive an electric car from Boston to Wash., D.C. (including the time to charge)?
It is one of the 90 articles in my new book, Debunk the Myths of Buffett. Click here for details.
---
My experience in buying a car.
Calculate how much you save in 5 years and estimate how many miles you drive a year. Most likely it will not pay back the extra investment / maintenance (two drive trains) / reliability (you may want to consider life insurance in case of battery explosion), minus the extra electricity bills, minus the inconvenience of charging (your time as a Volt's driver must be more expensive than a Corolla's.), finding a qualified mechanic (except from the dealer who will charge the sucker a bundle), minus tickets for driving too slowly...
Why folks buy it besides the rebates from the government (at least at one time)? It is the same as folks camping in line to buy the new iPhone to replace the one just they bought several months ago. Don't tell me the iPhone would improve the productivity after they have wasted one night camping in the cold.
They want to be the first one in their town to own a Volt and show the world they're green conscious (that is debatable). It boosts their social standing and 'prestige' to some, It is not for me even if I had the money. Well, it could save them money of seeing a psychiatrist who could help them to boost their ego.
There is a very small handful of folks buying the car for the good of the environment. It is debatable as I said before. There is no convincing figure that it will reduce carbon dioxide emission significantly even with 10% of cars are electric. However, I have to thank the electric car owners and government rebates. Without them, we will never have a truly usable and affordable electric car in the future.
The battery technology is evolving. It may take at least 10 years for M.I.T. and the professor to deliver the next breakthrough to a commercial product. I also wonder how long it takes to drive an electric car from Boston to Wash., D.C. (including the time to charge)?
It is one of the 90 articles in my new book, Debunk the Myths of Buffett. Click here for details.
---
My experience in buying a car.
Fiscal Cliff
There is no sign that politicians will fix the fiscal cliff. I can see higher tax in the future.
I will dump all defense companies if I have any and all high dividend stocks.
I'm accumulating cash as the market even it is rising now does not look rosy except before the first quarter, 2013. Corporate profits cannot be improved as the consumers do not consume and the corporates do not expand. Very seldom we have a rising market with rising taxes. U.S., EU, China and countries rich in commodities are all inter connected and are suffering.
There will be more blogs as I do not spend a lot of time looking what stocks to buy. Will spend more time to refine some of my strategies especially why I bought those big losers.
I will dump all defense companies if I have any and all high dividend stocks.
I'm accumulating cash as the market even it is rising now does not look rosy except before the first quarter, 2013. Corporate profits cannot be improved as the consumers do not consume and the corporates do not expand. Very seldom we have a rising market with rising taxes. U.S., EU, China and countries rich in commodities are all inter connected and are suffering.
There will be more blogs as I do not spend a lot of time looking what stocks to buy. Will spend more time to refine some of my strategies especially why I bought those big losers.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
My betrayal
Shamelessly I bought a Japanese car last weekend during the Japan and China islet dispute. I am a Chinese American. However, the car was assembled in America and most components beside the engine and transmission are made in China. Hence driving all the way to Washington DC to burn my brand new car in front of the Japanese Ambassy does not make a lot of sense. In addition, this half patriot has to care about his own pocket and free trade.
I received a letter of 10% off from the dealer. When I came in, they said they had to add $800 for marketing. If it is not bait and switch, I do not know what is. I bet if I leave, they will accept my offer they cannot refuse before I start my car.
The finance manager dressed nicely and was very presentable. It reminded me of the wolf that wears sheep's skin. He showed me a long list of warranties with expensive prices. I told him I was not the target audience because I was broke. He challenged my intelligence by asking me how much I would buy if they were free. I told him none as my mother taught me there was no free lunch in life. He was very frustrated as he was losing thousands of dollars. As I was leaving his office with zero dollar transferred from my pocket to his, he called his psychologist for an appointment after work.
Not a good day for everyone in the car dealership except the salesman. Another salesman had a bad day as he refused the 10% right away and challenged me to see the letter. It is another case of 'a fool and his money part fast'.
-------
My model is the lowest edition. Nevertheless it is full of features that I may never use. I did not use even once the cruise control of my last car. I did not choose sunroof and leather seats and it is good that I have this option not to have these options. The way to flatten the rear seats with a push of a button is impressive for sales presentation, but I'll never use it as I have the booster seats there. The back rear mirror is great if it only costs $20 or so.
My friend asked for the advertised stripped down car. Of course, they did not sell (or make) this car and they had to give him extra features like a radio free. Some dealers give you a big discount from the jacked-up prices. A bargain or a trap?
I received a letter of 10% off from the dealer. When I came in, they said they had to add $800 for marketing. If it is not bait and switch, I do not know what is. I bet if I leave, they will accept my offer they cannot refuse before I start my car.
The finance manager dressed nicely and was very presentable. It reminded me of the wolf that wears sheep's skin. He showed me a long list of warranties with expensive prices. I told him I was not the target audience because I was broke. He challenged my intelligence by asking me how much I would buy if they were free. I told him none as my mother taught me there was no free lunch in life. He was very frustrated as he was losing thousands of dollars. As I was leaving his office with zero dollar transferred from my pocket to his, he called his psychologist for an appointment after work.
Not a good day for everyone in the car dealership except the salesman. Another salesman had a bad day as he refused the 10% right away and challenged me to see the letter. It is another case of 'a fool and his money part fast'.
-------
My model is the lowest edition. Nevertheless it is full of features that I may never use. I did not use even once the cruise control of my last car. I did not choose sunroof and leather seats and it is good that I have this option not to have these options. The way to flatten the rear seats with a push of a button is impressive for sales presentation, but I'll never use it as I have the booster seats there. The back rear mirror is great if it only costs $20 or so.
My friend asked for the advertised stripped down car. Of course, they did not sell (or make) this car and they had to give him extra features like a radio free. Some dealers give you a big discount from the jacked-up prices. A bargain or a trap?
Monday, September 17, 2012
As the world ages
The secular bear market in last 10 years is most likely due to the wars and the associated costs and there is nothing to do with the age.
The age makes a big difference to the economy. This time is different. The life expectancy is at least 5 years longer than last generation. Many seniors are still working as they do not have enough saving.
One more citizen could mean one more iPad for Apple. However, it could mean another person in the line of the unemployment office and/or welfare office or one more mouth to eat our limited resources.
The age makes a big difference to the economy. This time is different. The life expectancy is at least 5 years longer than last generation. Many seniors are still working as they do not have enough saving.
One more citizen could mean one more iPad for Apple. However, it could mean another person in the line of the unemployment office and/or welfare office or one more mouth to eat our limited resources.
Free trade starts with you
If you do not like Chinese products, burn all your clothes, take out all the components in your car that are made in China, do not buy stuffs from Wal-Mart...
If you do not like U.S. products, do not fly in Boeing's planes, use Windows or iPads...
If you do not like Japanese products, do not buy them. Shamelessly I bought a Japanese car last weekend during the disputed islet incident. Well, the car is assembled in US, so you cannot blame me totally for being not patriotic.
It is a free country after all. We could dump all the chicken feet to the ocean instead of sending them to China and enjoy a $50 toaster that is made in USA. The jobs we create is a small fraction of the jobs gained. Most of the jobs from China will go to other low-wage countries. The politicians just insult our intelligence.
If you do not like U.S. products, do not fly in Boeing's planes, use Windows or iPads...
If you do not like Japanese products, do not buy them. Shamelessly I bought a Japanese car last weekend during the disputed islet incident. Well, the car is assembled in US, so you cannot blame me totally for being not patriotic.
It is a free country after all. We could dump all the chicken feet to the ocean instead of sending them to China and enjoy a $50 toaster that is made in USA. The jobs we create is a small fraction of the jobs gained. Most of the jobs from China will go to other low-wage countries. The politicians just insult our intelligence.
Commodity prices fall due to China
Click here for a good article on falling prices of commodities.
It also means those countries like Brazil, Australia, Russia, Peru... which supply China with commodities will also fall.
China is moving up the product chain with higher value products and its internal market is growing fast. China is stockpiling many commodities when the prices dip. I hope India and other low-wage countries will pick up the cheap consumer products that China is forced to abandon due to the higher living standard.
The tires over manufactured in China is due to U.S.'s tariff. I see soft landing in China, but they will recover faster with the high foreign reserve. I'm not that pessimistic.
Commodity prices also depend on the value of the currency. Gold does not appreciate that many times, but the USD depreciates.
It also means those countries like Brazil, Australia, Russia, Peru... which supply China with commodities will also fall.
China is moving up the product chain with higher value products and its internal market is growing fast. China is stockpiling many commodities when the prices dip. I hope India and other low-wage countries will pick up the cheap consumer products that China is forced to abandon due to the higher living standard.
The tires over manufactured in China is due to U.S.'s tariff. I see soft landing in China, but they will recover faster with the high foreign reserve. I'm not that pessimistic.
Commodity prices also depend on the value of the currency. Gold does not appreciate that many times, but the USD depreciates.
U.S. complains on Chinese subsidies to its auto industry
It is obvious Obama wants to blame China as he cannot fix our problems.
The facts are:
1. China has rescued GM from bankruptcy. US cars are thriving in China esp. recently with disputing with Japan in islets.
2. Every country subsidies its own industry. How about U.S. loans to farmers, research grants to colleges...
There are many trade restrictions we should work on, but not on something that we cannot argue reasonably.
The facts are:
1. China has rescued GM from bankruptcy. US cars are thriving in China esp. recently with disputing with Japan in islets.
2. Every country subsidies its own industry. How about U.S. loans to farmers, research grants to colleges...
There are many trade restrictions we should work on, but not on something that we cannot argue reasonably.
Withdrawing IRAs
I did the 'right' things: Invested fully to my 401Ks and IRAs. If you're like me, you'll face the same problem I'm facing: Have accumulated a fortune (fortunately) in your retirement accounts but you have to pay taxes (unfortunately) on your entire accounts.
Some non-savers like to share our wealth with all kinds of excuses. Legally we have to via taxes and I do not mind to share the wealth. However, it is not fair for savers who sacrifice current enjoyment to save for the future.
The poor can see the doctor without paying a penny or have free stay in nursery homes. We, the middle class, cannot. The system does not encourage folks to work hard and take risk. I hate that the lady in front of the check-out line bought the most expensive cut of the meat with her food stamp card. There are some needy we should help, but not the cheaters.
I try to see what will my minimum withdraw requirement be when I turn 70 1/2. You can find all the information in the web. I have to withdraw a large amount from now on to reduce the chance of going over $250,000 when the required withdrawal kicks in (if you do not do so, the penalty is hefty). It looks like my income from this year on is more than the highest total income during my work years.
Roth IRA is still the best way to go. 401K is only good if your expected retirement income (including 401K withdrawal) is less than (or close to) your current income. If I can do it all over again, I may not contribute that much to my 401K especially when my wife was not working.
The future blog will include my experience in planning for estate taxes. With taxes, there is no one size that fits all.
Some non-savers like to share our wealth with all kinds of excuses. Legally we have to via taxes and I do not mind to share the wealth. However, it is not fair for savers who sacrifice current enjoyment to save for the future.
The poor can see the doctor without paying a penny or have free stay in nursery homes. We, the middle class, cannot. The system does not encourage folks to work hard and take risk. I hate that the lady in front of the check-out line bought the most expensive cut of the meat with her food stamp card. There are some needy we should help, but not the cheaters.
I try to see what will my minimum withdraw requirement be when I turn 70 1/2. You can find all the information in the web. I have to withdraw a large amount from now on to reduce the chance of going over $250,000 when the required withdrawal kicks in (if you do not do so, the penalty is hefty). It looks like my income from this year on is more than the highest total income during my work years.
Roth IRA is still the best way to go. 401K is only good if your expected retirement income (including 401K withdrawal) is less than (or close to) your current income. If I can do it all over again, I may not contribute that much to my 401K especially when my wife was not working.
The future blog will include my experience in planning for estate taxes. With taxes, there is no one size that fits all.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
All talks and no works
I read the comments and finally I found out what's wrong with our country (I am a slow learner especially on Monday mornings).
We spend too much time in arguing. That's good if we leave some time to find solutions and fix the problems.
Many arguments are political. That translates to "I do not care it is right or wrong as long as my political party says so.".
We spend too much time in arguing. That's good if we leave some time to find solutions and fix the problems.
Many arguments are political. That translates to "I do not care it is right or wrong as long as my political party says so.".
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Debating with a chartist
We make money the best way we can. You have your own and I have mine. I know some chartists make a lot of money, and some lose her shirts. Let me discuss mine.
Objective. Make money at the least risk.
Methods.
1. Market Timing.
http://bit.ly/RzOhRc
2. Use the right strategy for the right market conditions.
http://bit.ly/PtvDKY
3. Evaluate the best stocks in the best sectors.
4. Consider total return.
= appreciation + dividend + covered call - taxes - inflation
The above are aims and tools but they do not always work. It work for me so far in the long term.
----
We can make money in either way. However, many seasoned (i.e. old) brokers will tell you they see more fundamentalists owning big yachts than chartists. I rest my case.
----
One makes good money on buying Intel at dips and sell at highs.
This is the way to trade for companies that have good fundamentals. Intel is one of these companies. Avoid companies that could go to 0.
The chartists would do the opposite. Both of them are right if they execute in the right time. Fundamentalists buy at dips and chartists buy at highs (and expect the price goes higher). Both will make money when they sell at prices higher than they bought. Simple in theory, but timing is everything and hard to master. Fundamentalists need to have more patience as they bet against the tide
Objective. Make money at the least risk.
Methods.
1. Market Timing.
http://bit.ly/RzOhRc
2. Use the right strategy for the right market conditions.
http://bit.ly/PtvDKY
3. Evaluate the best stocks in the best sectors.
4. Consider total return.
= appreciation + dividend + covered call - taxes - inflation
The above are aims and tools but they do not always work. It work for me so far in the long term.
----
We can make money in either way. However, many seasoned (i.e. old) brokers will tell you they see more fundamentalists owning big yachts than chartists. I rest my case.
----
One makes good money on buying Intel at dips and sell at highs.
This is the way to trade for companies that have good fundamentals. Intel is one of these companies. Avoid companies that could go to 0.
The chartists would do the opposite. Both of them are right if they execute in the right time. Fundamentalists buy at dips and chartists buy at highs (and expect the price goes higher). Both will make money when they sell at prices higher than they bought. Simple in theory, but timing is everything and hard to master. Fundamentalists need to have more patience as they bet against the tide
Wealth distribution
You need to have wealth before we can distribute. We distribute money from the money we do not have.
When the poor have a better life than the middle class (like free health care), we do not encourage them to work.
When the investors do not have incentives to invest here, they do not invest or move to other countries.
Disclosure: I do not belong to any political party and my view is own, not from Romney or Obama.
When the poor have a better life than the middle class (like free health care), we do not encourage them to work.
When the investors do not have incentives to invest here, they do not invest or move to other countries.
Disclosure: I do not belong to any political party and my view is own, not from Romney or Obama.
On dividend
When dividend is raised, the stock price is usually up (Cisco's 10% up in one day due to dividend boost; I have a large bet on Cisco based on my 'Buy and Forget' for deeply valued stocks that have been beaten down by this economy). I'm taking some profit as there is no change in the fundamental.
CEOs' compensations usually include a good percent from stock options. So, it is wise for them to raise dividend. However, raising too high will not be good for the company if they need the money for research and product development. Most high tech companies need money to build a better mouse trap to replace the mouse trap they built several months ago; Apple's continuous upgrade on iPhones is a good example.
CEOs' compensations usually include a good percent from stock options. So, it is wise for them to raise dividend. However, raising too high will not be good for the company if they need the money for research and product development. Most high tech companies need money to build a better mouse trap to replace the mouse trap they built several months ago; Apple's continuous upgrade on iPhones is a good example.
Comparing China, India, Greece.
*
I agree it is quite hard to compare India and Greece. Their sizes are very different. Even within India or China, a part of country is entirely different from another part.
There are common aspects too. When a country has too high a debt with respect to GDP, they cannot compete globally as the interest to service the debt goes to product cost.
I have a rosier view for Greece to recover in 5 or so years:
1. Tourism.
2. Olive industry and shipping industry.
3. Government reduce to about 1/4 of the original expenses.
4. Lessons learned.
Greece is small enough to a quicker recovery.
*
You need to take out at least 3% to factor in inflation. India is in no good shape. Most developing countries should count at least 5% (2% after inflation) as they're starting low.
US has a free helping hand with the reserve currency. However, the days are numbered. At one time, we bet Euro would be the candidate, now it is Yuan. The major disadvantage of printing money and the reserve currency is postponing our collapse. Instead of a small collapse, it will be a big one.
We just cannot pass our debts to next generation forever. We need to live within our means and save for a better future. When our debt is so high, we cannot compete.
Our government wants to show the world we're #1 and give you all the help to your country except helping ourselves.
You need to take out at least 3% to factor in inflation. India is in no good shape. Most developing countries should count at least 5% (2% after inflation) as they're starting low.
We just cannot pass our debts to next generation forever. We need to live within our means and save for a better future. When our debt is so high, we cannot compete.
Our government wants to show the world we're #1 and give you all the help to your country except helping ourselves.
India is a democratic system and China is a Capitalist-Socialist. It seems the democratic system needs educated citizens and wealth to make it work.
*
It is better for Greece to divorce and have a new start. At that time, they will depreciate the currency so they would attract more tourists (esp. when some Muslim countries are losing tourists) and make their products more attractive for global trades.
I agree it is quite hard to compare India and Greece. Their sizes are very different. Even within India or China, a part of country is entirely different from another part.
There are common aspects too. When a country has too high a debt with respect to GDP, they cannot compete globally as the interest to service the debt goes to product cost.
I have a rosier view for Greece to recover in 5 or so years:
1. Tourism.
2. Olive industry and shipping industry.
3. Government reduce to about 1/4 of the original expenses.
4. Lessons learned.
Greece is small enough to a quicker recovery.
*
You need to take out at least 3% to factor in inflation. India is in no good shape. Most developing countries should count at least 5% (2% after inflation) as they're starting low.
US has a free helping hand with the reserve currency. However, the days are numbered. At one time, we bet Euro would be the candidate, now it is Yuan. The major disadvantage of printing money and the reserve currency is postponing our collapse. Instead of a small collapse, it will be a big one.
We just cannot pass our debts to next generation forever. We need to live within our means and save for a better future. When our debt is so high, we cannot compete.
Our government wants to show the world we're #1 and give you all the help to your country except helping ourselves.
You need to take out at least 3% to factor in inflation. India is in no good shape. Most developing countries should count at least 5% (2% after inflation) as they're starting low.
We just cannot pass our debts to next generation forever. We need to live within our means and save for a better future. When our debt is so high, we cannot compete.
Our government wants to show the world we're #1 and give you all the help to your country except helping ourselves.
India is a democratic system and China is a Capitalist-Socialist. It seems the democratic system needs educated citizens and wealth to make it work.
*
It is better for Greece to divorce and have a new start. At that time, they will depreciate the currency so they would attract more tourists (esp. when some Muslim countries are losing tourists) and make their products more attractive for global trades.
On QE3
* USD is a reserve currency. The benefit is obvious. The pitfall is when we think we can get away from many problems by printing more money, we're creating a bigger trap for ourselves. We may fall from a steeper cliff.
We do not have another real currency today to replace USD as a reserve currency. However, I believe the days are numbered.
* The funny thing is we blame China for manipulating the currency and China does not blame us for doing so initially. We have a long list of similar tactics like spying (all countries spy), accessing influence (we do too with foreign subsidies)... We blame China for product dumping but not for dumping rare earth elements. QE3 is a tool to manipulate the currency.
* Normally the economy is about 6 months behind the market. Market is a good predictor for the market.
Easing money usually is good for the economy as business can finance their operations at less cost. This time is different. We have printed too much and we pas the point of good return. The only advantage is we depreciate (another word for manipulate) the currency and increase inflation that reduce our debt burden like the debt from China.
We're heading to Japan's lost decades when the economy is down even with 0 interest rate.
We do not have another real currency today to replace USD as a reserve currency. However, I believe the days are numbered.
* The funny thing is we blame China for manipulating the currency and China does not blame us for doing so initially. We have a long list of similar tactics like spying (all countries spy), accessing influence (we do too with foreign subsidies)... We blame China for product dumping but not for dumping rare earth elements. QE3 is a tool to manipulate the currency.
* Normally the economy is about 6 months behind the market. Market is a good predictor for the market.
Easing money usually is good for the economy as business can finance their operations at less cost. This time is different. We have printed too much and we pas the point of good return. The only advantage is we depreciate (another word for manipulate) the currency and increase inflation that reduce our debt burden like the debt from China.
We're heading to Japan's lost decades when the economy is down even with 0 interest rate.
On VZ
The main business of VZ is regulated. It is a mature business and the mobile division will be too. The son (mobile) is eating the mother. FIOS is making inroad and could be better than the competitor with faster and bigger pipeline with fiber optic.
VZ should serve the average investor better by buy back than dividend when there will most likely be a difference in the tax rates in the two in 2013.
The stock has not appreciated except the 4.xx% dividend that does not beat inflation and taxes in last 5 years. It did beat S&P 500.
The pension obligation is relatively large compared to S&P500 companies.
VZ should serve the average investor better by buy back than dividend when there will most likely be a difference in the tax rates in the two in 2013.
The stock has not appreciated except the 4.xx% dividend that does not beat inflation and taxes in last 5 years. It did beat S&P 500.
The pension obligation is relatively large compared to S&P500 companies.
On Intel
* I do not look at any chart except the doctor's chart on me.
I believe Intel will come back big in 3 years. I bought some last week and still am buying at dips. A short-term trader would view the same stock differently from a fundamentalist as the holding periods between the two are different.
* How many high tech companies pay 4% dividend? Intel may never pay 4% dividend. They need money to plow back to build a better mouse trap to replace the one they just built several months ago and compete with the mouse traps from other companies.
* Cloud allows more processing power at the server. Your PC or tablet is a display and communication device.
Cloud is no angel. Some stock simulation works better in local PC. Internet is not always available like during my climb to the top of Himalaya.
* Tablets will never replace desktops. We will not have a 17" tablet unless we double the sizes of our hands and fingers.
* The risk of waiting for Intel to go under $20 is there is a good chance it may never go under. What I did is buy some now and then keep on buying on dips.
I believe Intel will come back big in 3 years. I bought some last week and still am buying at dips. A short-term trader would view the same stock differently from a fundamentalist as the holding periods between the two are different.
* How many high tech companies pay 4% dividend? Intel may never pay 4% dividend. They need money to plow back to build a better mouse trap to replace the one they just built several months ago and compete with the mouse traps from other companies.
* Cloud allows more processing power at the server. Your PC or tablet is a display and communication device.
Cloud is no angel. Some stock simulation works better in local PC. Internet is not always available like during my climb to the top of Himalaya.
* Tablets will never replace desktops. We will not have a 17" tablet unless we double the sizes of our hands and fingers.
* The risk of waiting for Intel to go under $20 is there is a good chance it may never go under. What I did is buy some now and then keep on buying on dips.
Can we live with Muslims in peace?
Have we learned from the many lessons? We need to respect each other.
I would like to know the motive of the those who financed the film. They are Muslim bashers. U.S. should not be stupid to fall into the trap of the motive of these folks again and again. I believe US will distance herself from the conflict between Israel and the Muslim world after facing face.
I would like to know the motive of the those who financed the film. They are Muslim bashers. U.S. should not be stupid to fall into the trap of the motive of these folks again and again. I believe US will distance herself from the conflict between Israel and the Muslim world after facing face.
Mending nets
The market has been upbeat for last weeks. I have sold some stocks this week. I do not plan to buy a lot unless they're deeply valued like Intel.
With a lot of free time on my hands, I looked at a lot of my big losers in last 6 months and checked why they (or I) screwed up and learned not to repeat same. Several stocks have no reason to fall to these levels, so I placed buy orders of them at 10% less.
I've too many comments at seekingAlpha this week and most of the blogs next are copied from them.
With a lot of free time on my hands, I looked at a lot of my big losers in last 6 months and checked why they (or I) screwed up and learned not to repeat same. Several stocks have no reason to fall to these levels, so I placed buy orders of them at 10% less.
I've too many comments at seekingAlpha this week and most of the blogs next are copied from them.
Friday, September 7, 2012
Strategy 101
"Buy and hold" should need no explanation. You just buy the stock and hold it forever. It is a good strategic in a secular bull market like between 1980-2000.
A better way is "Buy and monitor" to ensure the stock still has rising potential. After 2000, it is a good strategy.
"Buy and Forget" is my term and strategy now in 2012 and it could be very useful now. You buy the deeply valued stocks (i.e. big bargains) and forget it until the economy comes back - hopefully in 3 yeas from 2012.
You should use the right strategy for the current market conditions. It is a market timing strategy but be flexible on some stocks. I would keep Apple forever but monitor its appreciation potential from time to time.
A better way is "Buy and monitor" to ensure the stock still has rising potential. After 2000, it is a good strategy.
"Buy and Forget" is my term and strategy now in 2012 and it could be very useful now. You buy the deeply valued stocks (i.e. big bargains) and forget it until the economy comes back - hopefully in 3 yeas from 2012.
You should use the right strategy for the current market conditions. It is a market timing strategy but be flexible on some stocks. I would keep Apple forever but monitor its appreciation potential from time to time.
Bear, crash, correction and pullback
Let me try to define them as best as I can. However, different folks have different opinions.
Secular bear: Effect: long poor performance that does not beat inflation. Duration: about 20 years. Cause:war (Vietnam in 1960-1980 and current two wars (2000-now).
Crash: Effect :lose > 25%, Recent: 2000 and 2008. Cause: bubble.: Frequency: About 4.5 years average.
Correction: Effect: lose 5% to 10%. About 2 times a year. Cause: Newton's gravity theory.
Pullback. Effect: 2-5%. Cause: The market has been up too much like stretching a rubber band. Big boys and market timers take profit.
They have equivalent terms for up market.
Secular bear: Effect: long poor performance that does not beat inflation. Duration: about 20 years. Cause:war (Vietnam in 1960-1980 and current two wars (2000-now).
Crash: Effect :lose > 25%, Recent: 2000 and 2008. Cause: bubble.: Frequency: About 4.5 years average.
Correction: Effect: lose 5% to 10%. About 2 times a year. Cause: Newton's gravity theory.
Pullback. Effect: 2-5%. Cause: The market has been up too much like stretching a rubber band. Big boys and market timers take profit.
They have equivalent terms for up market.
Doing your own tax returns
Hiring guns or not to file your tax return really depends on how much you have and how much time you can afford.
I must be in the majority who file the tax returns himself. I can tell you the advantages of doing it yourself from my own experience.
* With Turbo Tax and the ease of loading all my stock transactions from my broker, it is quite easy to do tax returns. I do not pay the accountant to do the data entry job that is quite free, error-free and automatic.
* By doing it yourself, you understand your tax conditions, tax laws... to make the best advantage of it. I did / do the following:
- Moved all partnership stocks to retirement accounts. I have a life too.
- Converted portion of 401K to Roth.
- Figured out that I have to withdraw from retirement accounts big and soon. Otherwise, the tax law requires me to withdraw at a large amount at age of 70 1/2 that could raise me to a very high taxable bracket.
- Take advantage of the low capital gain tax rate in last few years. At one year, I paid almost 0 for capital gain tax when I sold most of my long term gainers (you can buy them back).
- Notice the huge dividend tax that is coming and act accordingly.
* I do realize professional services are important esp. if your asset is above a certain level and/or your tax situation is complicated.
* Some highly appreciated stocks are good for charities and/or pass them to my heirs.
I did not use estate service before as the deductions are very generous. However, next year it may not. I spent about $4,000 for setting up wills and trusts. We do not want to be penny wise and pound stupid.
I must be in the majority who file the tax returns himself. I can tell you the advantages of doing it yourself from my own experience.
* With Turbo Tax and the ease of loading all my stock transactions from my broker, it is quite easy to do tax returns. I do not pay the accountant to do the data entry job that is quite free, error-free and automatic.
* By doing it yourself, you understand your tax conditions, tax laws... to make the best advantage of it. I did / do the following:
- Moved all partnership stocks to retirement accounts. I have a life too.
- Converted portion of 401K to Roth.
- Figured out that I have to withdraw from retirement accounts big and soon. Otherwise, the tax law requires me to withdraw at a large amount at age of 70 1/2 that could raise me to a very high taxable bracket.
- Take advantage of the low capital gain tax rate in last few years. At one year, I paid almost 0 for capital gain tax when I sold most of my long term gainers (you can buy them back).
- Notice the huge dividend tax that is coming and act accordingly.
* I do realize professional services are important esp. if your asset is above a certain level and/or your tax situation is complicated.
* Some highly appreciated stocks are good for charities and/or pass them to my heirs.
I did not use estate service before as the deductions are very generous. However, next year it may not. I spent about $4,000 for setting up wills and trusts. We do not want to be penny wise and pound stupid.
Sunday, September 2, 2012
Market prediction and actions as of 9/2012
I have written a blog on Market Top (it turns out to be quite accurate) on April, 2012, and it is one of my top blogs in term of no. of views. It could be luck, good insights, or most likely both. I also profit by buying in early 2009 that gave me the best profit % for a long while.
I'm writing another one predicting another market top. It is intended for education purpose only and for my own argument what I should act now. Do not bet your money on my view and do your own homework.
After a month or so, I will 'freeze' this blog and all the updates will be in comments to this blog. This is used to measure whether my prediction is successful or not, as opposed to many 'gurus' writing after it has already happened or using double talk techniques (so they're always right).
My crystal ball.
* I expect the fiscal cliff has or will have some effects.
Very few times we have high investment taxes and a rising market at the same time. The Dow at over 13,000 is quite high except for the two considerations:
1. EU and our problems will be resolved soon, but they are not. When the good news appears, I would sell some of my holdings.
2. QE3 (if it happens) will drive up inflation and Dow at 13,000 would be far less in reality when inflation is factored in.
* All the window dressing in this election year will be erased early next year. I expect we may lose more than 10% (15% for dividend stocks) in Q12013. My crystal ball is as good as yours.
* I expect the bubble of dividend stocks will finally burst.
No winning strategy is good forever. The current premium on dividend stocks is just too high. It is a mild bubble though.
Unless there are last-minute changes in the tax rates, over 30% is too much. Most of us do not drive the market, but the big boys and his clients who are affected by this high tax rate will.
* 2015 still looks good unless there is another war.
* I expect the market will be up temporarily due to QE3 and it could be the best time to unload. I started unloading.
My actions.
* Reduce investment in equities.
* Sell some dividend stocks.
* Consider shorting, covered calls and contraETFs.
* Try not to invest except on high-value stocks. These are the bargains we need to buy and forget waiting for the economy to recover.
* Go away in May.
This time I may not come back to stocks in Nov. 1 (some years we should come back to equities in the more risky but more profitable Oct.). The market could be too risky by then. This is the time folks unload winners for low long-term capital gain tax and folks get rid of the dividend stocks. Will act according to how all these events are being developed.
* We need to know when to come back after the plunge. Is 10% down the resistance line? Are we heading to a w-shaped recession? A Japanese-style of lost decades? Would we miss the profit if we do not move back to equities (the May plunge in 2012 is a example)?
It all depends on your own risk tolerance and how events are being developed. This is very speculative for me to tell you what I will do as there is no perfect answer. After-the-fact answers have no value but serves as lessons for future. If I am right, you do not share your gains with me. If I'm wrong, you will blame me. It would be a loss-loss situation for me. No one will decide it for you but you yourself.
Only a prediction.
To me, the chances of the above to happen are higher than not to happen. Even if they will not happen, I treat them as a cheap insurance policy and have a sound sleep.
I do not do any research as many good ones are available in many magazines, journals and the web. I just summarize the ones I believe and act accordingly.
I'm writing another one predicting another market top. It is intended for education purpose only and for my own argument what I should act now. Do not bet your money on my view and do your own homework.
After a month or so, I will 'freeze' this blog and all the updates will be in comments to this blog. This is used to measure whether my prediction is successful or not, as opposed to many 'gurus' writing after it has already happened or using double talk techniques (so they're always right).
My crystal ball.
* I expect the fiscal cliff has or will have some effects.
Very few times we have high investment taxes and a rising market at the same time. The Dow at over 13,000 is quite high except for the two considerations:
1. EU and our problems will be resolved soon, but they are not. When the good news appears, I would sell some of my holdings.
2. QE3 (if it happens) will drive up inflation and Dow at 13,000 would be far less in reality when inflation is factored in.
* All the window dressing in this election year will be erased early next year. I expect we may lose more than 10% (15% for dividend stocks) in Q12013. My crystal ball is as good as yours.
* I expect the bubble of dividend stocks will finally burst.
No winning strategy is good forever. The current premium on dividend stocks is just too high. It is a mild bubble though.
Unless there are last-minute changes in the tax rates, over 30% is too much. Most of us do not drive the market, but the big boys and his clients who are affected by this high tax rate will.
* 2015 still looks good unless there is another war.
* I expect the market will be up temporarily due to QE3 and it could be the best time to unload. I started unloading.
My actions.
* Reduce investment in equities.
* Sell some dividend stocks.
* Consider shorting, covered calls and contraETFs.
* Try not to invest except on high-value stocks. These are the bargains we need to buy and forget waiting for the economy to recover.
* Go away in May.
This time I may not come back to stocks in Nov. 1 (some years we should come back to equities in the more risky but more profitable Oct.). The market could be too risky by then. This is the time folks unload winners for low long-term capital gain tax and folks get rid of the dividend stocks. Will act according to how all these events are being developed.
* We need to know when to come back after the plunge. Is 10% down the resistance line? Are we heading to a w-shaped recession? A Japanese-style of lost decades? Would we miss the profit if we do not move back to equities (the May plunge in 2012 is a example)?
Only a prediction.
To me, the chances of the above to happen are higher than not to happen. Even if they will not happen, I treat them as a cheap insurance policy and have a sound sleep.
I do not do any research as many good ones are available in many magazines, journals and the web. I just summarize the ones I believe and act accordingly.
…
There are other 75 similar articles:
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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 9/2/12. Last updated in 9/2/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 9/2/12. Last updated in 9/2/12.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Are you biased?
We all are. I was born as a Chinese in Hong Kong. I'm biased naturally on certain topics on China and Hong Kong.
When you belong to a political party or a religion, you're biased. You do not want to speak against the view points of your party or religion, such as birth control. Both political parties really do not know how to fix our health care system. They still want to spend like no tomorrow to buy votes by moving money from one budget to health care. They also want to increase taxes to pay for it, so we further increase unemployment problem. They do not want to fix the root problem which is how to lower the health care expense first.
I'm sure our Tea Party history is written differently in Britain. Examples abound: WW2, Boxer Rebellion (I shamelessly call it Patriotic Acts Against Foreign Devils), Opium Wars... However, we have to stick with facts. Rewriting history on Nanjing Massacre by the Japanese is bad.
It is quite OK to have different perspectives. We need to live with others, and countries need to live with others peacefully. US's Secretary of State just announced US wants influence in Pacific while China wants to live peacefully with its neighbors. I do not know how sincere China is, but it is a good gesture.
Every time US 'influences' a certain region, they spend a lot of cash and many more under the table. Do we have money to waste in our bankrupt state? Should we ask China to loan us more money to control China? There was a bomb star from Hong Kong kept some money for some political figure in a SE Asia country. It does not take a genius to trace back to corruption. We blamed China for buying 'access' while we're doing the same.
There are similar articles in my recent book:
When you belong to a political party or a religion, you're biased. You do not want to speak against the view points of your party or religion, such as birth control. Both political parties really do not know how to fix our health care system. They still want to spend like no tomorrow to buy votes by moving money from one budget to health care. They also want to increase taxes to pay for it, so we further increase unemployment problem. They do not want to fix the root problem which is how to lower the health care expense first.
I'm sure our Tea Party history is written differently in Britain. Examples abound: WW2, Boxer Rebellion (I shamelessly call it Patriotic Acts Against Foreign Devils), Opium Wars... However, we have to stick with facts. Rewriting history on Nanjing Massacre by the Japanese is bad.
It is quite OK to have different perspectives. We need to live with others, and countries need to live with others peacefully. US's Secretary of State just announced US wants influence in Pacific while China wants to live peacefully with its neighbors. I do not know how sincere China is, but it is a good gesture.
Every time US 'influences' a certain region, they spend a lot of cash and many more under the table. Do we have money to waste in our bankrupt state? Should we ask China to loan us more money to control China? There was a bomb star from Hong Kong kept some money for some political figure in a SE Asia country. It does not take a genius to trace back to corruption. We blamed China for buying 'access' while we're doing the same.
There are similar articles in my recent book:
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