Saturday, September 15, 2012

Comparing China, India, Greece.

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I agree it is quite hard to compare India and Greece. Their sizes are very different. Even within India or China, a part of country is entirely different from another part.

There are common aspects too. When a country has too high a debt with respect to GDP, they cannot compete globally as the interest to service the debt goes to product cost.

I have a rosier view for Greece to recover in 5 or so years:
1. Tourism.
2. Olive industry and shipping industry.
3. Government reduce to about 1/4 of the original expenses.
4. Lessons learned.


Greece is small enough to a quicker recovery.



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You need to take out at least 3% to factor in inflation. India is in no good shape. Most developing countries should count at least 5% (2% after inflation) as they're starting low.

US has a free helping hand with the reserve currency. However, the days are numbered. At one time, we bet Euro would be the candidate, now it is Yuan. The major disadvantage of printing money and the reserve currency is postponing our collapse. Instead of a small collapse, it will be a big one.

We just cannot pass our debts to next generation forever. We need to live within our means and save for a better future. When our debt is so high, we cannot compete.

Our government wants to show the world we're #1 and give you all the help to your country except helping ourselves.


You need to take out at least 3% to factor in inflation. India is in no good shape. Most developing countries should count at least 5% (2% after inflation) as they're starting low.

We just cannot pass our debts to next generation forever. We need to live within our means and save for a better future. When our debt is so high, we cannot compete.

Our government wants to show the world we're #1 and give you all the help to your country except helping ourselves.
 


India is a democratic system and China is a Capitalist-Socialist. It seems the democratic system needs educated citizens and wealth to make it work.  

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It is better for Greece to divorce and have a new start. At that time, they will depreciate the currency so they would attract more tourists (esp. when some Muslim countries are losing tourists) and make their products more attractive for global trades.  

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