Friday, September 7, 2012

Bear, crash, correction and pullback

Let me try to define them as best as I can. However, different folks have different opinions.

Secular bear: Effect: long poor performance that does not beat inflation. Duration: about 20 years. Cause:war (Vietnam in 1960-1980 and current two wars (2000-now).

Crash: Effect :lose > 25%, Recent: 2000 and 2008. Cause: bubble.: Frequency: About 4.5 years average.

Correction: Effect: lose 5% to 10%. About 2 times a year. Cause: Newton's gravity theory.

Pullback. Effect: 2-5%. Cause: The market has been up too much like stretching a rubber band. Big boys and market timers take profit. 


They have equivalent terms for up market.

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