On Market Timing & dividend stocks

However, beating the market (or SPY for easy measure for most) is a common yardstick esp. for fund managers. In this case, we look at 5-year average return.

Dividend stocks have been good for the last few years due to the low interest in bonds. However, the interest rate I expect to change by the end of this year, and at that time the dividend bubble (already historically high) may be burst. It is hard to tell the lottery winners not to buy lotteries.

Market timing is about educated guess. I have examples after 2000. It will not predict the exact peak (it is possible via SMA% and RSI, but I have not fully confirmed). The last two plunges, the simple chart told us to leave the market and it could save you a lot of money and it will most likely work in the future as it depends on the falling stock prices.

From 1970-2000, the average annual return with dividend is about 10%. There is no need to time the market. However, from 2000 to today, we have 2 major plunges with an average return of about 45%.