Tuesday, September 6, 2016

On market timing

It is better to follow sth. that works than not. 
Past performance has little bearing to future performances.However, the chart works quite while from 2000 to 2011. It gives only 3 signals to exit (and 3 to reenter). That means only one false signal (and shortly a signal to return) which usually does not harm the portfolio except the tax consequences on taxable accounts.
The Complete Art of Investing only costs $10 for the Kindle version. Use it as a reference. It is a million dollar decision to many (me included). Everyone's risk tolerance is different. Being very conservative, I bet about 50% of my money on the hints currently.Yes, there are more false signals recently from the chart. 
Every market is different. There are about 8 hints described such as interest rate. The indicator oil price turns out to be just the opposite in this market. I predicted the market would be positive in 2015. Why? From the statistics (or data mining or curve fitting) of the market performances for all years before election.
I exited the market in April, 2000 based on other hints. I did not in 2008 due to false security of my rising portfolio (with oil stocks), but reentered based on the chart. Hence, it is not totally curve fitting.

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