Market: a 3-step dance

Market can move up or down. Usually it dances side way when switching from one to the other. When it moves down, it moves in a faster speed.

Market movement can be predicted by moving average (30 days moving average is one). When it moves above the average line, most likely it moves up. It is a prediction and many other factors should be considered.

Take advantage of the side way movements by buying at little dips and selling at little peaks which are defined as the support and resistance.

You can take advantage of market timing by not holding a stock forever by buying and selling the same stock or an ETF. I believe 'buy-and-hold' is dead since 2000. I cannot find too many articles praise this strategy with data after 2000.

Market timing is not a perfect science but educated guesses. However, the more educated you're, the better your chance of success in the long run.

There are secular market about 20 years, a market cycle about 5 years, and 2 market dips. In a secular market like 1980-2000 (approx.), every one can be a market genius and buy-and-hold works as the tide is with you.

It provides opportunities to buy at the two or three temporary market dips every year and sell at the same number of temporary market peaks.

The market cycle is divided into bottom, early recovery, recovery and peak. Do not buy at bottom, make most money in early recovery, switch to momentum strategy in recovery and be careful in peak (with stop orders). You could lose more than 40% from peak to bottom in a year.

Use the strategy according to the market movement and stage of the market cycle.