Saturday, March 4, 2017

More on One Belt, One Road

With some friends talking more on this topic, here are my notes:

There are many links and the six Youtubes (about 50 minutes each). For more info and updates, Google "One Belt, One Road".

The YouTubes are produced by Chinese CGTN (used to be CCTV-News), so they are in Chinese point of view.

Here are the reasons from my view point:

1. Make the neighbors rich so they can buy Chinese products. China used to loan us money so we can buy their products; it does not work well as the addicts will just ask for more.
2. Choice of land route and sea route. Sometimes one route saves the trip more.
3. Connect Asia and Europe at our expense.
4. Import energy and ores.
5. Flex Chinese influence.
6. Over capacity in China.

BTW. Chinese have never (or seldom) colonized any country (is Tibet a country?).

One Belt means Chinese neighbors, the modern silk road and/or both to me. It is feasible to some extent. There is no perfect deal. Today, Pakistan and Kxxxstan (gas supply to Shanghai from the video) already benefit. One train in Africa is a waste of money so far.

Chinese blue water might can enforce the sea route (Suez Canal and the strait next to Singapore).
Brazil is too far away but it supplies China with oil and ores. Brazil really depends on China and Australia too.

The NW China is mostly semi desert and some desert. That's why it has not been developed compared to the East.

The sea route could be choked by the Malacca Strait, the two mentioned canals, Gibrata (typo)... That's where the Chinese blue water navy comes in handy.

The road route is not free of trouble spots. Many are desert and semi desert. Earth quakes are frequent in the near East. One episode showed the train takes goods all the way from China to Madrid.
EU and China should be good traders for a long while until China catches up. China is moving some polluting industries to the neighbors. China has to supply them with infrastructure (electricity, road...) first with its excessive capacity.

I watched the Ethiopia one (may not be included in the series). Without the Chinese train, it cannot be possible to bring the fruits to the seaport without spoiling them. Another topic is high speed rail to the world; I believe long-distance travel still depends on air.

I chromcasted the video to big HD screen and it is damn good.

CCTV-news is English speaking with Chinese topics. It is similar to Radio America to China but everyone speaks Chinese and on TV. My Verizon has it included.

Russia did not play a major role initially. With their relationship with EU and low oil price, it seems to be more in tone with China now. Russia could play China hand against the US as we did it on Russia 30 years ago.

Russians do not forget. They still treat the Mongolians badly after Ghengis conquest many decades ago. They made it independent as a buffer zoom to China.

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