Responding to a post on best jobs

Physicians are not the best paid job if you figure in how many hours they put in, how hard to get into medical schools, how much it costs for the education, how stressful, how responsible...

Lawyer graduates have a hard time to get a job today due to over-supply. Good, we need more Robin Hoods.

There are many jobs with good salaries due to supply and demand: computer software (has been for over 40 years and I was one), accounting (not well paid but easy to get a job)...

With the aging population, nurses, pharmacy jobs... should be in demand.

The best job is searching for stocks. I beat all the professions described every year in the last 5 years keeping my fingers crossed. I do not have to travel to work. I do not have a boss (except my wife). I do not have anyone to report to (except IRS once a year). No one dies if I made a mistake. I can take any vacation any time and any length I want. I do not have to talk to anyone except my computer. I'm the luckiest SOB!

Anniversary

From Seeking Alpha:

"Today marks the seven-year anniversary of the current bull market for U.S. stocks, which have logged more than 84 months without posting a decline of 20% that marks a retreat into bear territory. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, the current bull run is the third-longest on record, with the average lasting slightly less than 59 months. How much have U.S. indexes gained since March 9, 2009? Dow +159%; S&P 500 +193%; Nasdaq +266%.".

2009 could be my best year in stock investing. Here is my write-up.

I had 80% return in 2009 in my largest taxable account. I did not include it in my other books before as I just found out the written statement.

This is the best time to make a profit: Early Recovery defined in my stages of a market cycle. My chart told me to start move to equity in September, 2009. I did in March, 2009 with other reasons. It could be luck, technique or both.

I did dip into my credit line of my equity loan (not recommended to most). I did not use it as a margin loan as most folks do, but as a saving from the lower rates than my broker’s rate. I paid back the loan right after I sold some stocks. The turnaround was high until I exhausted my short-term losses (tax loss harvest).

The strategy is bottom fishing: finding value stocks. Some sectors described in my book are better in this stage of the market cycle.

I had similar success in 2003. I did not have defined bottom fishing technique at that time. I expected the market to be fully recovered in two years. From Value Line, I selected stocks with high “Projected 3-5 year returns” and the short-term assets can last for two more years (judged by the burnt rates).

However, the story has not ended. I am looking another crash in 2016 and hopefully another recovery. After 2009, I had been too cautious (leaving a good percentage in cash). Win some and lose some.  


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For more of my reasoning, check out the book described next. It has 800 pages (6*9) for $9.99. It could be the best $10 you ever spend.

The above is an abstract from my book "Complete the Art of Investing" which is available from Amazon.

I challenged to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 5 or more stocks in one year after the publish date. The concepts for that article are discussed in this book.

On today's financial news

Quite a lot of news today. I do not really know where to start - OK in sequential order.*

 

 The last time I checked, the market has risen over 180% from March, 2009 to Jan. 2015 excluding dividends. 

 

For rough estimate (you can't estimate it precisely as the yield changes every day), it is about 2% dividend for S&P 500 index. The dividend is important on flat years. For example, you can claim you beat S&P500 index by over 500% but actually you break even with the index if one includes dividend and one does not. A common but legal trick!

 

* Yes, gold funds have turned around. I missed it as I had not paid attention to the monthly winners. Never happens again I hope.

 

* The queen is just a figure head. Her function is attracting tourists and nothing more (for her age I cannot say eye candies).

 

* Japanese high-tech companies are practicing the act of all in a family or not letting your water to flow into others' rice field (an old Chinese saying). Chinese companies would give better prices I bet.

 

* Tilson is the poster boy of shorters. Ackman's VRX could be a turn around candidate. Both made profits and lost a lot. Most of us should not bet like them as we're using our own money. All the gold in the world would not be better than a good night sleep.

 

* There will be no Iran and no N.Korea in the next morning if they use nuclear weapon. Paper tigers?

 

* On sale today: One way ticket to Mars in a free flying coffin, with free cremation and disposal service. I pay for your life insurance if I'm your beneficiary - better bet than any stock trade.

Old post on health

I was surprised on new views on the following post on health. There are a few positive comments and all were from medical folks. Re post it here.

**   Do the doctors know best (8/2012) **

I’ve a lot of doubts about my doctors and dentists. The dentists try to squeeze every dollar out of me. They care more about their bottom line than my health. When we have health problem, the best way is to diagnose yourself via some good, reputable internet sites and books. We should know better before we talk to our doctors.

 

My experience:

You can actually suggest your doctor what to do. They are not saints. I should have told my doctor that my prostate problem was the enlargement, not cancer. It is quite common for my race and my age group. I had several biopsies and they’re all clean except I may not have a prostate after the biopsies. 

 

I should also have told another doctor to take out the water from my knee after a fall. The old doctor did not want to do anything as he will retire soon. I suffered for a long time. Actually I retired early partly because of the pain in walking to and from the bus stop. Should the doctor know best? I do not think so at least in these two cases.  I hope some doctors would respond to this blog.

  

My quote for the day

Technicals is primarily for timing the market and fundamentals is primarily for looking value stocks.

Simple concept but huge impact.

Why?

There are too many metrics in finding value stocks. Technicals is great for short-term trend for stocks and it shows the reason of stock movements when fundamentals is not enough such as a lawsuit or a new approval of a new drug.

 

The beggar and inflation

When I was asked for a spare dollar, I felt the inflation pinch.

On today's financial news

* 5% virtually is full employment for practical consideration It should affect housing positively. However, the median wage is still far below the 2007 level. Costco's $13 is quite high to me compared to the average salary of a new college graduate (about $30K a year from my rough estimate).

* China's Congress is just a free party for 3,000 officials. It is similar to Bush's cabinet (i.e. no one thinks and talks except one). The big difference is the policy and presidency selection is continued.

In the U.S., when another party takes over, everything changes. Many would clear their desks routinely. Do not cry for them as they will get jobs from companies whom they gave favor to. Corruption has many shades of green - some are more obvious than others.

* Sometimes it will be better for the company to go private or stay in private. A public company is expected to make big profit and big sales every year. Sometimes the leverage requires too much risk to the company.

Solar City may be an exception. I do not see the future of the company if the government stops the subsidies and tax credit. I cannot figure out how they can make money against the oil and shale energy at least in the short run.