Thursday, January 7, 2016
A comment I have to agree. LOL.
I
have to agree with this first comment on my new book Complete the Art of Investing. I'm naturally biased. A good comment means all the gold in
the world to me. I still have a lot to improve in my writing skills - English is not my native language and I have not written more than 2 pages in my IT career. Thanks to JB for this review you can find in Amazon.com. BTW. I do not know any reviewers including JB and many reviews (not mine) were obviously written by friends.
There will be no promotion as the price of $10 is already a big bargain for a 800 pages (6*9) book.
----------------------------------------------
I just bought this book due to the woes of opening market 2016 and being brand new to investing, my eyes were crossed with all the different reasons we are were we are and what one can do to "manipulate the market".
I skipped ahead to his chapter book 14, Investment Advices just to get a feel of his writing style. His research is phenomenal and doesn't overwhelm with big words or catchy "sales-like" tactics.
I truly believe this ordinary man, Mr. Tony Pow has a gift of explaining his experience as an investor without the bull crap of trying to make you buy his stuff. He seemingly just wants to share his knowledge, tips, and clarity of definitions for the kind of folks like me who want to understand something FIRST before jumping in with emotions of trying to make a boat load of money. I am liking the technical analysis side he brings.
I also bought his inexpensive book, A Nation of No Losers. Literally, I can not give him enough credit for his plain English and perspective on US relations with China. Thank you Mr. Pow.
Mr. Tony Pow talks about hidden gems in his book, well....quite frankly, he is a hidden gem. Thank you and I will also post my comments about this author to my Facebook page!
-- JB
There will be no promotion as the price of $10 is already a big bargain for a 800 pages (6*9) book.
----------------------------------------------
I just bought this book due to the woes of opening market 2016 and being brand new to investing, my eyes were crossed with all the different reasons we are were we are and what one can do to "manipulate the market".
I skipped ahead to his chapter book 14, Investment Advices just to get a feel of his writing style. His research is phenomenal and doesn't overwhelm with big words or catchy "sales-like" tactics.
I truly believe this ordinary man, Mr. Tony Pow has a gift of explaining his experience as an investor without the bull crap of trying to make you buy his stuff. He seemingly just wants to share his knowledge, tips, and clarity of definitions for the kind of folks like me who want to understand something FIRST before jumping in with emotions of trying to make a boat load of money. I am liking the technical analysis side he brings.
I also bought his inexpensive book, A Nation of No Losers. Literally, I can not give him enough credit for his plain English and perspective on US relations with China. Thank you Mr. Pow.
Mr. Tony Pow talks about hidden gems in his book, well....quite frankly, he is a hidden gem. Thank you and I will also post my comments about this author to my Facebook page!
-- JB
Real folks and real stories on health
This writer and I graduated from the same high school in the same year. It is good to know more about heart attacks so we can prevent it. Google this disease. Is the pressure of the job too big? There are too many unanswered questions.
I will ask her permission whether I can keep it here. I separated this long article (I've a hard time to pause) by paragraphs and changed the names. I will read it again to remind myself. Enjoy the moments in life and have a healthy life.
-------------------------
About 2 years ago, while rushing in and out of the X Locker Room at the airport right before my shift, I bumped into a Chinese woman colleague named S. She looked very confident, smart, normal and altogether. That was the first time we said hello and goodbye to each other because everybody's working different rotational shifts in many different areas and multi-functions throughout the airport.
Often times, you may never see the same colleagues you work with today until another day 10, 20 or 30 years later (if they have not retired from the company or if they are still alive. And that's part of airport life for you). Well, little did I know that was the first and last time I said hello and goodbye to her. She's our 6th colleague who have also suddenly died within the last 6 months in 2015. Her funeral took place on Dec 31, 2015. She was 63. The other 5 were all very good looking, healthy looking males and females: 46, 57, 58, 59 and 65.
All died of massive heart attacks. It's scary and very discomforting to see their smiling faces on the wall in our Briefing Room where we go for our briefing at the start of every shift. In as short as 6 months, from 1 familiar face to 6 familiar faces went up on that wall "In Loving Memory of ........". Their voices, adrenalized energies and laughters are still lingering inside my ears as I have indeed worked very well side-by-side with 4 of them before.
One of them used to go to Hawaii each year for at least 6 weeks, cycling around the Hawaiian islands daily for hours and returning to work at the airport looking so sun-tanned and totally healthy. There was one winter night when we had the ice storm and of course non-stopping heavy snowfalls, whiteouts and blizzards that all the runways were shutdown. He and I were controlling a few outbounds at the departure gates and we had to announce flight cancellations after our numerous flight delays announcements earlier, when the angry crowds standing in front of our counter were ready to slaughter us as some of them drove up to 8 or 10 hours to get to the airport to wait around the whole evening and then to be told there's NO more flights going out that night.
It was almost 1:30 a.m. in the morning, my heart was racing in front of the angry stranded passengers (even though I didn't show it). But, D was extremely calm and altogether the whole time. He's always on top of things despite what adverse situations. And he also knew how to enjoy life that he always hop on a flight just to go to ball games and sports events all over the world. Aahh!!!
NONE of these 6 fallen colleagues was anything close to overweight. In fact, they were all very slim and looking very fit.
-----------------
Click here for another article on diet.
I will ask her permission whether I can keep it here. I separated this long article (I've a hard time to pause) by paragraphs and changed the names. I will read it again to remind myself. Enjoy the moments in life and have a healthy life.
-------------------------
About 2 years ago, while rushing in and out of the X Locker Room at the airport right before my shift, I bumped into a Chinese woman colleague named S. She looked very confident, smart, normal and altogether. That was the first time we said hello and goodbye to each other because everybody's working different rotational shifts in many different areas and multi-functions throughout the airport.
Often times, you may never see the same colleagues you work with today until another day 10, 20 or 30 years later (if they have not retired from the company or if they are still alive. And that's part of airport life for you). Well, little did I know that was the first and last time I said hello and goodbye to her. She's our 6th colleague who have also suddenly died within the last 6 months in 2015. Her funeral took place on Dec 31, 2015. She was 63. The other 5 were all very good looking, healthy looking males and females: 46, 57, 58, 59 and 65.
All died of massive heart attacks. It's scary and very discomforting to see their smiling faces on the wall in our Briefing Room where we go for our briefing at the start of every shift. In as short as 6 months, from 1 familiar face to 6 familiar faces went up on that wall "In Loving Memory of ........". Their voices, adrenalized energies and laughters are still lingering inside my ears as I have indeed worked very well side-by-side with 4 of them before.
One of them used to go to Hawaii each year for at least 6 weeks, cycling around the Hawaiian islands daily for hours and returning to work at the airport looking so sun-tanned and totally healthy. There was one winter night when we had the ice storm and of course non-stopping heavy snowfalls, whiteouts and blizzards that all the runways were shutdown. He and I were controlling a few outbounds at the departure gates and we had to announce flight cancellations after our numerous flight delays announcements earlier, when the angry crowds standing in front of our counter were ready to slaughter us as some of them drove up to 8 or 10 hours to get to the airport to wait around the whole evening and then to be told there's NO more flights going out that night.
It was almost 1:30 a.m. in the morning, my heart was racing in front of the angry stranded passengers (even though I didn't show it). But, D was extremely calm and altogether the whole time. He's always on top of things despite what adverse situations. And he also knew how to enjoy life that he always hop on a flight just to go to ball games and sports events all over the world. Aahh!!!
NONE of these 6 fallen colleagues was anything close to overweight. In fact, they were all very slim and looking very fit.
-----------------
Click here for another article on diet.
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
Investing & politics
You may ask why
politics is discussed in this investing book. Politics has been proven to
affect the market. For example, the market had reacted to the different stages
of Quantitative Easing whose dates had been preset. The following is a more
recent example.
I predicted 2015 would be a year
with small profit and insisted on so even during the fierce correction in
August. Why I was so sure? Very seldom the market is down in a year before an
election year including 2007. The last occurrence was 1939, the year when WW2
started. Investing is a multi-discipline venture including statistics and
politics. It may not always happen, but the probability is high for these
years.
How to profit
2015 was a sideward market. The
market reacted to good news and bad news. The strategy for sideway market is:
Buy at temporary downs and sell at temporary peaks. Define ‘temporary’
according to your risk tolerance.
For the ‘temporary market down’,
personally I used 5% down from the last market peak. To me the ‘temporary
market peak’ is 10% up from the last market down. The percentages can apply to
the percentage changes in the stocks in your watch list. In another words, I
buy the stock when the market is 5% down from the last peak and sell it when it
gains 10% or the market gains 10%. Be reminded that this strategy is opposite
to market plunges, where you should exit the market totally - again depending
on your risk tolerance.
The following are my purchases on
08/26/2015. I should have bought more stocks and one day earlier if I were not
blinded by fears (a human nature) during this correction. Here is my proof
for my purchase orders as I was asked to. The four stocks were described as
value stocks in a SA article and I did a simple evaluation. As of 12/31/2015, I sold all the four stocks
except Gilead Sciences. The annualized
returns are more impressive such as GNW’s 10% gain in one day.
Stocks
|
Buy Price
|
Buy Date
|
Return
|
Sold date
|
Apple (AAPL)
|
107.20
|
08/26/15
|
12%
|
10/19/15
|
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
|
105.94
|
08/26/15
|
-4%
|
|
General Motors (GM)
|
27.69
|
08/26/15
|
12%
|
09/17/15
|
Genwealth Financial
(GNW)
|
4.54
|
08/26/15
|
10%
|
08/27/15
|
There were similar examples in 2013 and 2014.
2016: Politics and
the market
No one
including all the Federal Reserve chairmen / chairwomen and all the Nobel-Prize
winners in economics can predict market plunges. One chairman predicted a smooth
market and a few months later the housing market crashed! Many predicted
correctly market crashes by pure luck. One even received a Nobel Prize and
became famous. However, you are glad to ignore his later market predictions.
There are at
least two best sellers asking us to exit the market in 2009. If you followed
them, you would miss all the big gains from 2009 to 2014. They did have a point
though. However, you cannot fight the Fed. The market had been saved by the
excessive printing of money and hence created a non-correlation between the
market and the economy. I bet these authors (famous economists and gurus) may
have not made a buck in the stock market except selling their books or teaching
where his students should request refunds. It is a classic case of the blind
leading the blind or diversion of theory and reality.
From their
articles, they do not know the basic technical indicator. You only want react
to the market when the market is plunging and not too early. That’s why most
fund managers cannot beat the market as most are not allowed to time the
market. Buffett had mediocre returns in the last five years – I had warned my
readers three years ago in my blogs/books. To me, the ‘buy-and-hold’ strategy is dead since 2000.
The average loss from the peak for the last two market plunges is about 45%.
Most charts depend on falling prices, so you will not save 45% and 25% loss is
my objective.
Fundamentally
speaking
The market in 2016 is risky due
to the proposed interest rate hike (as of 4/15 the Fed indicated only .5% so it
would not be a factor), our record-high margin, strong U.S. dollar (as of 4/15,
it is weaker) and the high expenses of the wars to start. Each reason could be
a good-size article. Personally I try to maintain 50% in cash and would flee
the market if my technical
indicator tells me so.
Politically (and
statistically) speaking
The election year is the second best for the market, but it
may not be this year. We seldom have
three terms from the same political party. For that, I predict a win by the
Republicans. Republicans are usually pro-business, but ironically the
democratic presidency has better track record for better market performance.
The market has more than recovered since the day when Obama took office. The S&P500 performance under Republicans vs. Democrats since 1926 to 2014 is approximately:
The market has more than recovered since the day when Obama took office. The S&P500 performance under Republicans vs. Democrats since 1926 to 2014 is approximately:
Annualized return
under Democratic presidencies: 13%
Annualized return under Republican presidencies: 6%
The market is riskier based on the above statistics. In addition, there is a good chance that we will have either a non-politician president or a lady president for the first time (more materialized in 4/16). The market usually does not favor to this kind of change. Statistics do not mean it will happen but history repeats itself more often in investing.
Annualized return under Republican presidencies: 6%
The market is riskier based on the above statistics. In addition, there is a good chance that we will have either a non-politician president or a lady president for the first time (more materialized in 4/16). The market usually does not favor to this kind of change. Statistics do not mean it will happen but history repeats itself more often in investing.
Critical political
issue for 2016
On our way back at about 4 pm on a Saturday, the bus was
full of Spanish-speaking workers. I bet most are illegal workers working in my
suburb such as our malls, the hospital and many restaurants. Why illegals? I
bet most legal folks would get welfare instead of working in that shift. If
they work, the state would take away the freebies such as health care in Mass.
The illegals do not have this option. I do not think the politicians understand
this. There is no need to build a border wall but punishing the employers who
hire illegals. Before we do this, we need folks to take the jobs taken by the
illegals today.
What will happen if the politicians turn the illegals to be legal? There will be nobody doing these low-level jobs I predict. No one in the right mind wants these jobs when it is far easier to collect welfare. Why would politicians make this stupid decision? They want to buy Hispanic votes as evidenced in the last two elections.
In addition, most politicians side with the welfare recipients. Since 40% of the population does not pay Federal taxes, the politicians have to satisfy their needs in order to buy votes.
What will happen if the politicians turn the illegals to be legal? There will be nobody doing these low-level jobs I predict. No one in the right mind wants these jobs when it is far easier to collect welfare. Why would politicians make this stupid decision? They want to buy Hispanic votes as evidenced in the last two elections.
In addition, most politicians side with the welfare recipients. Since 40% of the population does not pay Federal taxes, the politicians have to satisfy their needs in order to buy votes.
We should encourage folks to
work, not the other way round. Representation without taxation is worse than
taxation without representation.
Our high taxes, increasing minimum wage, regulations and strong US dollar dampen our competitive edge.
Our high taxes, increasing minimum wage, regulations and strong US dollar dampen our competitive edge.
Some political
decisions/regulations that affect the stocks
Beside the presidency and the interest rate hike(s), there
are many political decisions and regulations that affect the stocks. Just name
a few here:
·
The never-ending wars postpone our secular bull
market beyond 2020.
·
Solar City (SCTY) and this sector depend on
government energy credit.
·
My Chinese solar panel stock evaporated when the
US banned them from importing to the US.
·
Any gun control measurement will affect gun
stocks (initially positive).
·
Restrictions on cigarettes if China and Russia
follow our bans.
·
Our immigration policy and great colleges
attract the best all over the world to come to the U.S. At the same time, we
need to limit economical refugees from burdening our entitlement systems.
·
France imposes extra taxes to foreign investors.
·
Government bailouts on ‘too big to fall’
companies.
·
High corporate taxes boost the exodus of
corporation headquarters to tax heavens for the US.
·
Infrastructure
projects.
·
Taking out the ban to export oil would increase
the profits for oil companies.
·
After the annexation of Crimea, the Congress
restricted using Russia’s rocket engines and gave new opportunity to the US
companies in this area. Besides political consideration, Chinese rockets are
the most cost effective and more reliable.
·
China’s suppressing corruption affected Macau’s
casinos. Actually every major change in Chinese policy affects the world and global
investors.
Currently
the policy of forcing Chinese banks to take stocks in failing companies makes
me stay away from investing in all Chinese banks.
Summary
Politics affects the market. I
predict a risky market in 2016.
Economy and religion also affect
the market. Statistically speaking, the market is ahead of the economy by about
6 months. However, the current market is an exception due to the excessive
money supply. The correlation will return to normal.
Religions cause wars as the ones
in the Middle East today. These huge expenses are consumption, not investing.
It will not be good for most sectors of the economy especially in the long run.
Written in 1/1/2016.
For more of my reasoning, check out the book described next. It has 800 pages (6*9) for $9.99. It could be the best $10 you ever spend.
The above is an abstract from my book "Complete the Art of Investing" which is available from Amazon.
I challenged to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 5 or more stocks in one year after the publish date. The concepts for that article are discussed in this book.
Monday, January 4, 2016
Our health
Expand on my friend's circulated article in the Facebook on harmful saturated fats. It does not need a Ph.D. to show us the results. Statistics never lie.
1. Being the frontier in health care, we have so many health problems comparing the 1900 decade to this generation. It is mainly due to the processed food. We also have so many deformed babies (could be due to the drugs like crack).
2. For more proof, watch the PBS's Defend of the Food (advocating produce) or read Dr. Campbell's book China Study (advocating a vegetarian diet).
3. Margarine is bad with all the chemicals and is a processed food disguised as health food.
http://healthimpactnews.com/2013/the-devastating-consequences-of-replacing-butter-with-margarine-in-our-diet/
-----
Margarine strikes back.
http://www.health.com/health/gallery/0,,20509217,00.html
The second article is from a more reliable source. My take is to use margarine with less chemicals and at the least amount as I can.
----
Besides eating fruits, vegetables and spies, we can reduce the chance of cancer - click here for more info.
1. Being the frontier in health care, we have so many health problems comparing the 1900 decade to this generation. It is mainly due to the processed food. We also have so many deformed babies (could be due to the drugs like crack).
2. For more proof, watch the PBS's Defend of the Food (advocating produce) or read Dr. Campbell's book China Study (advocating a vegetarian diet).
3. Margarine is bad with all the chemicals and is a processed food disguised as health food.
http://healthimpactnews.com/2013/the-devastating-consequences-of-replacing-butter-with-margarine-in-our-diet/
-----
Margarine strikes back.
http://www.health.com/health/gallery/0,,20509217,00.html
The second article is from a more reliable source. My take is to use margarine with less chemicals and at the least amount as I can.
----
Besides eating fruits, vegetables and spies, we can reduce the chance of cancer - click here for more info.
DSLR cameras
When the market is risky in 2016, most likely I will spend my time in better stuffs in life such as my grand children (not stuff). Looked for cameras for my son. His need is minimal. However, he has a friend who is a professional photographer, so buying a good one would hopefully benefit him.
I prefer to buy Cannon so he can use my interchangeable lens (now only the prime lens for him). Here are the 3 selections from Best Buy today. All have T5 body and come with a 18-55 lens.
1. 75-300 lens and a cheap bag. $450.
2. 18-55 lens but with IS. $400.
3. 18-55 lens with IS and STM. $500. He should buy this one and borrow my 300 mm lens if he needs to.
Obviously, #3 is not cost effective unless STM (step motor) is $100 worth to you. Since STM makes almost no noise, it is better for videos.
We selected #1. #2 could be the one if IS (image stable) is important to you. I have used my 75-300 lens for two times for testing for the last few years.
The prime lens costing $100 or $110 with STM is great for sharp and fast picture without zooming. I would spend the extra $10 for STM. The original prime lens is 25 years old as there is not much you can do with this simple but great lens.
I have a T3 with an IS lens. The difference between T3 and T4 is small. T5 is about the same as T3i (not counting the extra M for resolution that most likely you do not need). Cannon just thinks you are willing to pay more with higher number. Either they are stupid or think the consumer is stupid, or the consumer is stupid.
For this money, today's DSLRs are great buy. Cannon has two lines of lens, one for consumers and one for professionals/rich folks. BTW. If there were an optical zoom (not counting the cheap add-on) for the cell phone, there is no need for point-and-shoot cameras.
BTW. Memory chip is cheap. The 32 GB only costs $18 comparing to paying $50 for 1 GB years ago. That's why my chip stocks are losing.
I prefer to buy Cannon so he can use my interchangeable lens (now only the prime lens for him). Here are the 3 selections from Best Buy today. All have T5 body and come with a 18-55 lens.
1. 75-300 lens and a cheap bag. $450.
2. 18-55 lens but with IS. $400.
3. 18-55 lens with IS and STM. $500. He should buy this one and borrow my 300 mm lens if he needs to.
Obviously, #3 is not cost effective unless STM (step motor) is $100 worth to you. Since STM makes almost no noise, it is better for videos.
We selected #1. #2 could be the one if IS (image stable) is important to you. I have used my 75-300 lens for two times for testing for the last few years.
The prime lens costing $100 or $110 with STM is great for sharp and fast picture without zooming. I would spend the extra $10 for STM. The original prime lens is 25 years old as there is not much you can do with this simple but great lens.
I have a T3 with an IS lens. The difference between T3 and T4 is small. T5 is about the same as T3i (not counting the extra M for resolution that most likely you do not need). Cannon just thinks you are willing to pay more with higher number. Either they are stupid or think the consumer is stupid, or the consumer is stupid.
For this money, today's DSLRs are great buy. Cannon has two lines of lens, one for consumers and one for professionals/rich folks. BTW. If there were an optical zoom (not counting the cheap add-on) for the cell phone, there is no need for point-and-shoot cameras.
BTW. Memory chip is cheap. The 32 GB only costs $18 comparing to paying $50 for 1 GB years ago. That's why my chip stocks are losing.
Sunday, January 3, 2016
Complete the Art of Investing
This book is 16 books in one. I squeezed over 2,000 pages (6*9) into 800 pages. If you want to own one of my books, this is the one for you. It is the best bargain and the most profitable book for you. It is in Kindle only as the cost of printing 800 pages is too expensive.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01AASN2GA
It could be my last new book for a long while (actually it is not new but merging 16 books into one). Unless the market is not risky, I have to spend more time in trading/investing. Happy investing in 2016 and be cautious in this risky market. This book could take you to the next level regardless of your skill in investing.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01AASN2GA
It could be my last new book for a long while (actually it is not new but merging 16 books into one). Unless the market is not risky, I have to spend more time in trading/investing. Happy investing in 2016 and be cautious in this risky market. This book could take you to the next level regardless of your skill in investing.
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