If
there were a war between China and Japan (the #2 and #3 economy), the US (#1
economy) will most likely support Japan and all the economical forecasts in
this book as of 1/2013 will be off and we will be in a global recession.
There have been disputes with the islets between China,
Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Philippine and Vietnam for the presumed oil or gas in the
near-by ocean. The disputes have been mild for over 40 years (I remember the
protest when I was a college student) and no side wants to do anything
until recently. All these countries would not want to agitate China and China
would not want to harm the trading relations. Now, the U.S. wants to side with
countries against China. With the backing of the U.S.'s Seventh Fleet and the
U.S.'s promises (hidden but quite obvious to me), all these countries suddenly
cry out loudly for the last few years.
If China starts the dispute initially, China grossly miscalculates and grossly underestimates the might of the U.S. navy. If Japan resumes the dispute, they are risking losing trade (#1 export to China) and tourists from China.
If China starts the dispute initially, China grossly miscalculates and grossly underestimates the might of the U.S. navy. If Japan resumes the dispute, they are risking losing trade (#1 export to China) and tourists from China.
It is the U.S.'s intention to remain as #1 and the most
powerful as the big brother in this part of the globe. It is not a wise
decision unless we still live in the past glory when you're either my puppet or
my enemy. Most likely, it is decided by the politicians who want to divert our
attentions as they cannot resolve our problems such as employment.
If the U.S. wants to promote selling weapons to Asian
countries (the U.S. is #1 in exporting weapons), we are playing a risky game
and the potential profit most likely will not justify the consequences.
China might withdraw the loans and we would be back to the worst depression in our history. It is quite dumb for China to loan us money to build the Asian missile wall against N. Korea and most probably against China too. When Japan and Korea fight against each other on the disputed islet, which position would we want to side with? If your answer is both, should we send missiles from one of our battleships to another one of our own?
We cannot afford another war. We've spent $1.365 trillion in the two current wars so far. We cannot visualize how much is one billion, not to mention one trillion. The current tallest building in the world (in Dubai) costs about $1.5 billion. We can build about nine hundred (900, not a typo) tallest buildings in the world and not even fathom of how many jobs would be created.
Not to mention the human suffering. China is not a tiger, but it is far from a paper tiger. Japan's navy is stronger than most folks in the U.S. can ever imagine. Japan has been the aggressor to China for centuries and has been war criminals against Korea and China in WW2. They have not compensated all the damages to Asian countries that they destroyed during WW2.
As usual, we always pick up the brick, aim and hit our own big toe. It was Vietnam, then the two wars in Middle East and now potentially the China Sea. We have not yet learned lessons from the French, the Brits and the Russians who had been all to Vietnam, Afghan and they all lost big.
No politicians would tell us that all our troubles are due to the high expense of the wars we participated. We have had about 20 years of secular bear market due to the Vietnam War, followed by about 20 years of secular bull market due to the lack of war, and now 12 years of bear market (as of 2012) due to the Middle East wars. At the mean time, many of us do not have jobs or at least under employed. I rest my case.
China might withdraw the loans and we would be back to the worst depression in our history. It is quite dumb for China to loan us money to build the Asian missile wall against N. Korea and most probably against China too. When Japan and Korea fight against each other on the disputed islet, which position would we want to side with? If your answer is both, should we send missiles from one of our battleships to another one of our own?
We cannot afford another war. We've spent $1.365 trillion in the two current wars so far. We cannot visualize how much is one billion, not to mention one trillion. The current tallest building in the world (in Dubai) costs about $1.5 billion. We can build about nine hundred (900, not a typo) tallest buildings in the world and not even fathom of how many jobs would be created.
Not to mention the human suffering. China is not a tiger, but it is far from a paper tiger. Japan's navy is stronger than most folks in the U.S. can ever imagine. Japan has been the aggressor to China for centuries and has been war criminals against Korea and China in WW2. They have not compensated all the damages to Asian countries that they destroyed during WW2.
As usual, we always pick up the brick, aim and hit our own big toe. It was Vietnam, then the two wars in Middle East and now potentially the China Sea. We have not yet learned lessons from the French, the Brits and the Russians who had been all to Vietnam, Afghan and they all lost big.
No politicians would tell us that all our troubles are due to the high expense of the wars we participated. We have had about 20 years of secular bear market due to the Vietnam War, followed by about 20 years of secular bull market due to the lack of war, and now 12 years of bear market (as of 2012) due to the Middle East wars. At the mean time, many of us do not have jobs or at least under employed. I rest my case.
The disputes will not be good for all countries involved.
The U.S. does not have sufficient resources to start another war. Hope it will
not happen. Let the sleeping dogs lie and silence is the gold. The one who
started to surface the dispute is grossly miscalculated.
Afterthoughts.
·
The point of my blog is not on the dispute
itself: Why the dispute re-surfaces after 50 years or so? I suspect it is the
U.S.'s hidden agenda. My guesses are: Help Obama reelection, the U.S. returning
to S.E. Asia, selling weapons in the region (the U.S. is already #1 in weapon
export), containing China... The unexpected outcome is which side the U.S. will
be when there is a dispute between S. Korea and Japan. If you look at the map,
I can tell one disputed islet is closer to Vietnam / Philippines and the other
one is closer to Taiwan. However, it is not the point of the blog.
------
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