Misc. comments on investment

Summary of my recent comments at SeekingAlpha.

*
Some one told me one made a million in one bet (could be based on insider's info or a real gambler). I will not learn anything from him as it is just plain luck or sth. illegal, and in addition he has violated the first law of diversification in investing.

I am quite successful in last 3 years but I do not count on it. Actually it is an extraordinary  return in 2009 but I did not beat SPY in next two years (due to keeping too much cash but at least I got a good sleep). My success is in choosing the strategy and so my portfolio does not help you at all. We cannot judge whether s/he is successful by the return. You can make a 100% return in 1 minute in any roulette table and it would be annualized to millions %. It has to be risk adjusted.

My philosophy can be summed up in my blog (try stock section in the middle of it.). Hope it will help and welcome any feedback.

http://bit.ly/MWAG45


*
Banking is one of the sectors (drug, mines...) we cannot evaluate easily. In banking it is the quality of the loans.  

For some folks, the long term capital gain is 0 for tax bracket 15% or less. Next year or just 6 months away, it could be better way to dump it for tax reason alone to offset any capital gain. When every one dumps it and if I feel it is a bottom fish play, I may buy it.

The problem is you cannot know how bad their exposure to EU is and the quality of their existing mortgages. I'm no expert in this even I read many experts' opinions.  

*
At 75 and if you're nice to your beneficiaries, you should select the plan for appreciation.

When you pass to the next life (every one has to and do not argue with God), your cost basis will be stepped up/down to prices on the day you pass - ask your heirs to save the stock page for that day. So, you do not pay Federal tax on the gain. Unless there is last minute change, the dividend tax rate will be your income tax rate.  

*
The market is too crowded with high-end Apple and Samsung and many low-end players from Far East. MSFT does not want to start the flame with its OEMers as she is with tablets.

http://bit.ly/OmvZpK
 

 *
You only care about the dividend stock when it goes to zero or almost zero (at that time the company will not pay dividend or the yield is 99.99%. Joke of the day.

Look for sth more realistic and recent. From 5 years ago, BAC is $50 and now it is $8 approx. Can the total dividends for the last 5 years erase the total loss of the stock? If your answer is Yes, check your math. again and this time with a open mind. When BAC was paying 5% dividend in Dec., 2007, you as a dividend investor most likely did not want to sell it and got the big loss.