Sunday, April 15, 2018

The market

The earnings should be good with still low interest rate, tax cut... However, the market is still over-valued - about 24 P/E vs. the average 15.

It would boost the market. The negative considerations are geopolitics including the possiblity of a global trade war and now Syria. The market is fundamentally unsound and technicals has been changed from sound to average (SPY is now negative in SMA-20 and 50 but positive in SMA-200).

With rate hikes, banks should be doing well for the coming year. My CDs (15 months) pay about 2.5% and then they lend far higher rate to their customers. Hence it is easy money for them if the loans are not risky.

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