I
have posted for the last few weeks (check my old posts) indicating the
market is peaking based on the gap between the price and its SMA (Simple
Moving Average 200 or 350) and RSI(14).
However, it is just a
correction hopefully. It may still down for 5% and will bonce back or at
least stop bleeding. Personally I have about 55% cash and was starting
buying stocks yesterday.
My crystal ball does not see a market plunge for the following reasons :
-
Bubble stocks are too few to move the entire market. My last year
prediction is most bubble stocks will be half 2013's peaks by the end of
2014; it seems heading the right direction.
- The only trigger I
can see is interest rate. I do not believe our dragon lady would raise
it when her chair is still cold. Russia's aggression is a noise to me.
We're too far away and the benefits to us are too few.
- Economies including EU and even China (debatable but it is my thoughts) are improving.
-
The US economy is improving. Seems the economy will recover without the
employment recovery as many jobs are outsourced and we cannot really
support a US factory for low-wage jobs.
Watch my technical
indicators every week as we cannot depend solely on the crystal ball
100% (which is not always right) and yesterday's predication cannot be
better than today's prediction (as the weather man finds out).
However, it is just a correction hopefully. It may still down for 5% and will bonce back or at least stop bleeding. Personally I have about 55% cash and was starting buying stocks yesterday.
My crystal ball does not see a market plunge for the following reasons :
- Bubble stocks are too few to move the entire market. My last year prediction is most bubble stocks will be half 2013's peaks by the end of 2014; it seems heading the right direction.
- The only trigger I can see is interest rate. I do not believe our dragon lady would raise it when her chair is still cold. Russia's aggression is a noise to me. We're too far away and the benefits to us are too few.
- Economies including EU and even China (debatable but it is my thoughts) are improving.
- The US economy is improving. Seems the economy will recover without the employment recovery as many jobs are outsourced and we cannot really support a US factory for low-wage jobs.
Watch my technical indicators every week as we cannot depend solely on the crystal ball 100% (which is not always right) and yesterday's predication cannot be better than today's prediction (as the weather man finds out).