Wednesday, April 23, 2014

On China

A good percent of Chinese GDP is due to infrastructure construction. China reaches the point that they do not need more new airports, roads (public transportation should be encouraged), bridges...

What they should do is:

1. Calculate each project to see whether it is cost effective or not. Business 101! Projects are not the tools to alleviate employment problem which could generate social unrest if not successful. The current mega project in connecting cities in Pearl Delta is too mega.

2. Living standard could be improved without GDP growth such as water quality, air quality, reliable food quality...

3. More regulations (just opposite to what the US should do) on construction, corruption (President Xi has been doing a great job), food quality, stock market... China has been relatively new to capitalist system. They have been learning fast, but not fast enough.

You learn from what other countries suffer, not from when you have problems.

4. Settle islet disputes. Obama seems to side with Japan, Philippine... It would lead the world to another secular bear market. You hear from here first.

However, if you compare China 10, 20 and 30 years, it grows by leaps and bounds and millions have been lifted from poverty (i.e. starving to death) which is the first human right above freedom.

Reply comments to comments

GDP and its growth are not good yardsticks for a country - a happy meter is (I'm still perfecting its construction :)).

Infrastructure should grow, but benefit should be calculated. The days of using half the world's steel and/or cement should be long gone.

BJ is enhancing its sub way system that could move it to the top of the world in a few years. All the subway systems in China are clean, modern and safe. It makes NYC's subway system a stone age structure (but it still works).

BJ had the first subway in Asia, I guess. It was not due to solving the transportation problem (a fleet of 500 buses then would do). It was used for war shelters against Russia, I guess again.

Tier 3 and below cities need to start subway system. However, compared to India who had the first subway system not too long ago in her biggest city, China has been way ahead, not counting the high-speed trains.

Water cleaning facilities are not a major problem. They need to control illegal dumping by the factories that are backed up by local corrupt governments. Many factories with high pollution should be shut down.

Sam, I have to disagree with you with Hong Kong's brand of democracy. Some make sense and some do not. They seem to be a bunch of hippies protecting in the 60s (the world has not been fair to everyone since it was created). There must be many 'professional' protesters.

Hong Kong is part of China and within 50 years it is no different than the rest of China. China wants to give them some 'liberty' to set up an example for Taiwan to return to the mother land.

Contrary to popular belief, minority in China have far better deals. For example, they do not have one-child policy restriction. So far, they give more to Tibet than it gets back. When I took the three-gorges cruise from SH to inland, I saw most minorities' customs, dances, songs...were preserved at least to us, the tourists.

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