Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Reader feedback on Complete the Art of Investing



Most feedback are from readers of Debunk the Myths in Investing, which this book is originally based on. As of 1/15/2016, I do not know any of the commenters here and at Amazon.com.

“Tony, I just finished reading your 2nd edition.  It’s my pleasure to report that I found it most interesting.  You’re welcome to use this blurb if you like:

Debunk the Myths in Investing is an all-encompassing look at  not only the most salient factors influencing markets and investors, but also a from-the-trenches look at many of the misconceptions and mistakes too many investors make.  Reading this book may save not only time and aggravation but money as well!”
Joseph Shaefer, CEO, Stanford Wealth Management LLC. 11/2013.
Tony, I used to use tarot cards (in investing), until I read your fact infested book Debunk the Myths...” - Takeone.

“Tony, Great work!” from James and Chris, who are portfolio managers.

'Debunk the Myths in Investing' is a comprehensive book on investing that deals with many aspects of this tense profession in which with a lot of knowledge and a bit of luck (or vice versa) one can greatly benefit…

Therefore 'Debunk the Myths in Investing' is an interesting book that on its 500 pages offer a lot of knowledge related to investing world and many practical advices, so I can recommend its reading if you're interested in this topic.”
-  Denis Vukosav, Top 500 Reviewers at amazon.com.

490 pages (Debunk) of a genius's ranting and hypothesis with various theories throughout, written light-heartedly with ample doses of humor…Yes, the myth of not being able to profitably time the market is BUSTED…

One might ask... Why is he giving away the results of his hard-earned research for only $20? He states that his children are not interested in investing and wants to share his efforts with the world.” -  Abe Agoda

I skipped ahead to his chapter book 14, Investment Advices just to get a feel of his writing style. His research is phenomenal and doesn't overwhelm with big words or catchy "sales-like" tactics.

I truly believe this ordinary man, Mr. Tony Pow, has a gift of explaining his experience as an investor without the bull crap of trying to make you buy his stuff. He seemingly just wants to share his knowledge, tips, and clarity of definitions for the kind of folks like me who want to understand something FIRST before jumping in with emotions of trying to make a boat load of money. I like the technical analysis side he brings.

Mr. Tony Pow talks about hidden gems in his book; well....quite frankly, he is a hidden gem. Thank you and I will also post my comments about this author to my Facebook page!” – JB on this book.



I challenged to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 5 or more stocks in one year after the publish date. The concepts for that article are discussed in this book.

Still not convinced? Click here for "Why you want to read this book".

Introduction to Complete the Art of Investing



Instead of buying 16 books, why not buy one book consisting of 16 books? Besides saving money and your digital shelve space, it gives you quick reference and concentration on the topic you’re currently interested in. It covers most topics in investing excluding speculative investing such as currency trading and day trading.

It has over 800 pages (6*9), about the size of three books of average size. With the cost of $10 and at least 1,000 investing ideas, it is less than one cent per idea. Most books have only a few ideas in the entire book.

This book is based on “the Art of Investing” and its sequel “Investing themes”. It also includes the abstracts of many other books. It consists most of my investing experiences plus more than one hundred investing books I read.

The 16 books

This book “Complete The Art of Investing” is divided into 16 books as follows. Click for the link to the book described in Amazon.com and click “Book Location” to the location in this book. I squeezed more than 3,000 pages into 800 pages by eliminating duplicated information such as evaluating stocks.


The book links are subject to change without notice. Book Location links do not work as they're copied from the actual book.

“Beginners & Couch Potatoes” is for beginners and couch potatoes, who can use the advanced features of this book in the simplest and less time-consuming techniques. Most advance users can skip this section unless they want to use some of the short cuts described.

We start with the basic books Finding Stocks, Evaluate Stocks, Trading Stocks and Market Timing.

You can select and start with one of the many styles and strategies in investing such as swing trading and top-down strategy. Many old teachings even from Buffett are not useful in today’s market judging from their recent mediocre performances. 

Many tools are described such as rotations of ETFs, technical analysis, covered calls and trade plan.

Many books start with “Why” to lure you to read more and are followed by “How” and then the theory behind the book.

Many books have common chapters such as Market Timing, Finding Stocks and Scoring Stocks. That’s the reason I can squeeze over 2,000 pages into this book.

Fundamental metrics



Introduction

The simple formula to make money is finding value stocks and waiting for the market to realize their values. Only buy when the market is not risky. Most successful investors are doing this.

Basic metrics

The book value of a stock is simply the net worth of a company (= Assets – Liabilities). When the stock price is higher than the book value per share (i.e. ‘Stock Price / Book Price’ > 1), it is over-valued. When this ratio is more than 2 or less than 0.5, you have to be cautious and find the reason. Many intangible assets such as the competitive edge have not been priced into the book value. Hence a high ratio may not be an alarm.  When it is way underpriced, there may be a critical reason.

Intrinsic Value includes the intangibles such as patents. However, both the Book Value and Intrinsic Value have not been convincing as predictors to me from my tests and experiences. Briefly, describe some basic but important metrics here.

·         Expected Earning Yield (E/P). The future appreciation depends on future earnings and the current price of the stock (you do not want to overpay). I prefer a range between 5% and 30%.
·         Growth of Earnings and growth of sales. Compare them to their rates in the same quarter last year. I prefer 10% or higher.
·         The management is measured by ROE. I prefer 10% or higher.
·         How safe it the company? It is measured by ‘Debt/Equity’. I prefer less than .5 (same as 50%). However, some industries are debt intensive.

These are the ratios readily available from many sites including Finviz.com except reversing the expected P/E for expected Earning Yield. There is no need to dig into the complicated financial statements to start. Just ensure the metrics are up-to-date.

The predictability of most metrics changes according to the current market conditions. Monitor their performance and act accordingly. I prefer E/P but Earnings/Sales had better predictability in my 7/2015 test.

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For more of my reasoning, check out the book described next. It has 800 pages (6*9) for $9.99. It could be the best $10 you ever spend.

The above is an abstract from my book "Complete the Art of Investing" which is available from Amazon.



I challenged to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 5 or more stocks in one year after the publish date. The concepts for that article are discussed in this book.

Complete the Art of Investing

This post and the next several posts are used to promote my book The Art of Investing.

If you already have my book, skip them except the updated  Fundamental Metrics in the next post.

It could be the best $10 you ever spend and the payback keeps on paying if you read the book and practice what it preaches. I do not claim it always makes you money. However, in the long term, it should.

This book has over 800 pages, about the size of three books of average size. It covers most topics in investing for all investors from beginner investors to mutual fund managers. Due to its size, it only has Kindle version for now - paper is expensive and binding is tough for 800 pages. Kindle reader may already have been installed in your PC.

I claim to have the best performance of all articles in Seeking Alpha, an investing site, from the publish date to one year later. It has to be a recommendation of 5 or more stocks, so luck is not a deciding factor. So far no one challenges me. The selection of 15 or so stocks uses many concepts from this book.

The following are the description of the book and some sample articles.

Description

Reader feedback

Oil

Investing and Politics

Market Timing

Have a great day, Tony



Monday, February 1, 2016

GILD

After reading many comments on an article on GILD, I have to conclude:

* Thanks Byran the author for this article. We examine the two sides of a story and decide it for ourselves.

* To defend Byran, Jeffrey Loo has a worse record than Byran based on TipsRank.com.

* The side effect of the competing drug may drive some patients away if the cost is not a big deal (i.e. insurance and Medicare payment).

* There is enough market (current patients and growing patients) for both companies on this cure. It would be very profitable for both companies on this drug for a long while. Do not dump the goose that lays the golden eggs at least not now.

* Fundamentally Gild is real sound except for high debt according to the metrics in Finviz.com.

* The controversy whether the drug company should price the life-saving drugs so every patient can afford it is just controversial. I believe both arguments should be compromised. If we price it as a give-away, there will be no research on new drugs.

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Next day comment on GILD.

* After reading a negative SA article, I bought more shares yesterday with a 15% price reduction from last month.

* Buy back would raise earnings per share as the number of outstanding shares is reduced and earnings is the same. It is using the company's cash, so fundamentally there is no change.

* The management was blamed for not using its cash. Now, it proves to be smart to wait while the bio tech stocks crashed.

* GILD should pick up some good candidates to acquire. These small companies do not have the resources to market a drug but have promising drugs.

* GILD should have great profit and cash flow until this drug expires.

* The government employee working 7/8 of his time with the government sold this drug to GILD for 400 millions. What a country!


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For more of my reasoning, check out the book described next. It has 800 pages (6*9) for $9.99. It could be the best $10 you ever spend.

The above is an abstract from my book "Complete the Art of Investing" which is available from Amazon.