Friday, January 11, 2019

General news



Confirmation of another supreme-court judge

If we have to ensure no sexual wrong doing of an appointee, we will never find a capable male in the US. Sigh!

Tibet today

Watched a travel show on Tibet. Tibet’s living standard has been at least doubled after the train. It has made everything cheaper to import to Tibet and has attracted a lot of tourists. I bet the ‘liberation’ is good for Tibet. They do not have one-child policy and children can go to school.

Wheel of Fortune

My late mom was a big fan of the show even she did not know English. It is the biggest compliment to the show.

Charity donations

In lieu of flowers, I donated. Why they asked me for the phone number? Use 1234 for the last 4 digits if it is a requited field to enter. On the same subject, sign it with “No robo call” which is supposed to reduce market calls.

Chow Yun Fat, the star in Crouching Tiger and Hidden Dragon, donated most of his money to charities and leads a frugal life style. Great Mr. Chow (not Mr. Fat).

I should not mock at Buffett’s income taxes as he had donated most to charities too. His foundation uses money more wisely and effectively than the government. Two thumbs up!

The story of Yanxi Palace

You can watch it from YouTube. It is the most-watched series in Asia. Check out the one with English subtitles. Hope the US channels will pick it up and dub English.

Health

Take care of it when you’re young. Many friends in my age group lose some hearing due to listening to loud music.

India

India is growing faster recently. But, India starts at a very low level. Just compare the number of high rises, railway, high speed rail, airports, highways and bridges. The 7.2% has no meaning and it will not catch up with China in 20 years:

·         China maintains 6.5% and India is only 1% ahead. Ignoring compounding, India will only be 20*1% = 20% total growth.

From the web, India's GDP (PPP) is four trillion whereas China's GDP (PPP) is ten trillion.

·         Diminishing growth. China had been grown in double digit in 10 years or so as it started with a low level. Today's 6.5% (heading to 6%) is decent compared to a developed country such as 3% for US.

India looks better than the figures as its population is less. India should address why it is not competitive and cannot copy a model from China. My guess: poor governance resulting corruption, bureaucracy and protectionism and social inequality.
Oct 13, 2018. 08:30 AMLink

Learn from your competitors

Recognize your competitors. Then learn from them. Apply where appropriate.

China did the same and now is our turn.

Global warming

The recent natural disasters may be caused by global warming. The warmer water and warmer air pass the energy to storms. The melting of the poles give rise to sea levels.

Better to believe it and take actions than ignoring global warming.

There are many we can do.

1.       Reduce carbon gas. Live in a smaller house to save energy to heat and cool the house. Wear more clothes instead of turning up the heat Use public transportation and/or drive energy efficient cars.
2.       Protect the environment. We need to repair rather than buy new stuffs such as iPhone and cars.
3.       Build sea wall.
4.       Control flooding.
5.       Do not build houses next to the ocean unless they're safe.

Oct 12, 2018. 03:59 PMLink

Better deal than buying Manhattan

Or Alaska from Russia. Even better without Sarah.

Actually the goose (US) is getting too old with no meat. Time to make soup with the bone.

Taiwan

In general, the citizens in north Taiwan are Chiang's followers and now their descendants while the south are original folks and/or folks came to Taiwan before Chiang.


Tibet

Tibet has closer relation with China throughout the long history. It is more peaceful due to longer distance and the royal marriages. Two of the last three dynasties were ruled by 'foreigners' (Mongolia and Manchuria). Mao made them part of the 56 ethnic groups.

Three blind mice

"Three blind mice" is a popular tune for the band in football games against the bad judgement of the referees.

It should be our national anthem: President, Congress and House of Representatives. Joke of the day?

Category 4

Category 4 is the worst for the region. Hope most areas have been evacuated. In some countries they cannot.

For the last two years the world has record-high natural disasters - a statistics that cannot be fake news.

The impacts of constant flooding and constant droughts cannot be avoided but can be reduced if we devote more of our resources here than fighting endless wars.

Hong Kong’s worst hurricane was bad, but ours is even worse.

From the web:
"In records dating back to 1851, there has never been a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle."
Oct 10, 2018. 11:28 AMLink

Contradiction

We will punish the Saudi. However, we will continue to sell them state-of-the-art weapons including our jet fighters.

US can bomb and destroy their jet fighters to punish them, so they can buy more from us. A win-win proposal.

Smile Index

Hong Kong was second last and moved up several steps up. A rich city does not mean its citizens are happy. It is due to competition (even from kindergarten) and the expensive housing.

Our high national debt

A convenient fact has been ignored by our presidents: our rising DEBT.

I can make all corporations look great with P/E, Sales... except the Debt/Equity that the competitive edge of the company will suffer in the long run. The company would bankrupt if it cannot service the debt.

Opiod crisis

Social Security  was designed when the life expectancy is around 65 and now is around 80 for male and 85 for female - thanks to Opiod it takes out about 2 years of our miserable lives.


Ocean bridge

The ocean bridge connecting cities in S. China and Hong Kong is the world’s longest after a decade of construction and many technical problems resolved.

Our last big project is Big Dig and it is dwarfed in comparison. If we do not see the project done in 4 years, most likely it will not pass the approval phase.

Saudi

China will benefit from our problem with Saudi. China is selling military drones to Middle East countries. Some of the drones have been used for real. So, you cannot say they are not tested.

China's drones are below ours technically but at about half off. The limit of CH-4 is without the internet link for remote control but it will be fixed (if not already) by CH-5. They also fly lower than ours so they should be detected by radar easily - but not a problem reported so far. They look similar to ours - another security leak?

Israel does not sell their drones to Middle East countries and we just lifted the restriction of selling drones to many countries. A perfect opportunity for China.

China is collapsing?

I was told China would collapse 15 years ago, then 10 years ago, then 5 years ago and even now. It has not. If you go to any Tier I city in China, you know it will not. Just compare their subway system with NYC as shown last night from 60 Minutes on NYC subway. Shenzhen's subway is incredible. HSR is connected to HK that China has more than half of the HSR of the world. There is a new airport and enhanced subway system in Beijing being worked on. The 'new' airport in Beijing opened in 2000 is now old.


Trump

I do not agree with Trump's presentation, but he does have some good actions and proposals.

* On immigration. We have the worst system. Japanese do not allow immigration in general and they have no terrorist attacks from foreigners compared to EU. The Mexicans treat the illegals (most on the way to US) badly.

What happened to the policy of sponsoring the new immigrants and no social welfare for the first 3 years? Why one immigrant can bring their entire family here? Why one caring for their elderly can receive generous wages? Buying votes is bad for the country long term.

Many countries treat their immigrants badly and some even force them to change their last names to local names.
* Tough with China. We do need to fix why we're not competitive.

* Tough with EU (same for Japan and S.Korea). They're wealthier than us (when our national debts are included. Why we defend them?

No, India will not catch up with China in 10 years

1. China should maintain 6.5% and India is only .5% ahead. Ignoring compounding, India will only be 20*.5% = 10% total growth.
From the web: India's GDP (PPP) is four trillion whereas China's GDP (PPP) is ten trillion.

2. Diminishing growth. China had been double digit growth in 10 years or so as it started with a low level. Today's 6.5% (heading to 6%) is decent compared to a developed country (3% for US).
India looks better as its population is less.

India should address why it is not competitive and cannot copy a model from China. My guess: poor governance, corruption, bureaucracy, social inequality, protectionism...

Yes, India is growing faster recently. But, India starts at a very low level. The 7.2% has no meaning and it will take a LONG time to catch up with China. Just compare the number of high rises, railway, high speed rail, airports, highways...

Taiwan

In general, the citizens in north Taiwan are Chiang's followers and now their descendants while the south are original folks and/or folks came to Taiwan before Chiang.

Taiwan used to proclaim "returning the lost land". They used to have the imaginary governors of every province in China. These old men (most died now) fell asleep in all the meetings except the first meeting. Not any more. Now they seek the better deal by proclaiming independence. Today Taiwan's economy depends too much on China. China offers them “One Country and Two Systems.

Tibet
Tibet has closer relation with China through out the long history. It is more peaceful due to longer distance and the royal marriages. Two of the last three dynasties were ruled by 'foreigners' (Mongolia and Manchuria). Mao made them part of the 56 ethnic groups.

After the train, the living standard of Tibetans have been improved substantially via easy to import / export and tourism.

Should we ‘liberate’ the blacks and the Red Indians first? Check out Detroit or any Indian reservation. Except the suppression of Tibetan monks a long while ago, China gives more to Tibetans than Tibet contributes.

In the old days, monks were the only class that could get an education. Now, China provides free education, same as all Chinese.

For example, they never have the ‘one-child policy’. In the days before the ‘liberation’, only monks can get an education. Every city I went in Western China, Chinese preserve their cultures. Actually China treat the minorities so good and makes other Chinese jealous.

Mice

"Three blind mice" is a popular tune for the band in football games against the misjudgement of the referees.

It should be our national anthem: President, Congress and House of Representatives. Joke of the day?

Merging and employee treatments

New England Tel used to have the best compensation package with bonus and/or options to many management employees. The more mergers they have, the worse is the compensation.

The secretary is the management employee. Hence they cannot strike with the union.

New changes in tax law

Most will lose in the tax law changes for 2018.

1. Exemptions are eliminated. It is about $4,000 per person.
2 Standard deductions are doubled. I do not have real estate interest to deduct. Not much for me.
3. Estate tax exemption is $5 M or so (forget the exact amount) per person. Fine with me with some planning such as using trusts. My friend's father died in Dec. when the estate tax exemption was increased from 1M. Poor timing. Should use life extension device for one more week.

The changes beneficial for the rich. The poor lose a lot esp. the health care cost (do not know the exact details). Without too much publicity, Trump introduced a new tax law to save a lot for real estate developers. Conflict of interest?

Bullying

Embargoing with other puppets to a specific country is bullying to me. Australia and India ban China's 5G field test. It will good for China in the long term.

5G

5G will be the future. It is more than speed alone. China has a cheap solution to install 5G antenna in existing antenna tower.

China has spent more money in 5G research than the other two network companies. US does not even build 4G network.

Huawei is one of the 3 companies that build network. Its network and phone dominate the world except in US for security reason. However, more than 20% of global traffic is accessible in China if they want.

Unknown here, Huawei's mobile phones could be one of the best if not the best. The latest phone has 3 cameras for different purposes and plenty of innovations. That's why Trump tries to cut down the US chips inside the phone. I bet Huawei uses its own chips combining AI, speed and low-energy consumption.

Wealth gap

All countries have wealth inequality even communists (the inner circle enjoying better stuffs in life).

With the middle class growing, some the policy of helping the poor and suppressing corruptions, the gap in China has been reduced. Again, I compare China today to China 5 years ago.

My last post is on wealth gap between countries. When a country is richer than another one which is strong in military, we have wars. Examples abound.

US is rich for many reasons. The major one is natural resources per capita. So is Norway with its long coast line and small population. India's wealth gap is the worst.

High female achievers

I met several female high achievers (doctors, lawyers, managers making over 200K...). They have one thing in common: no spouse.

They miss their best chance in college to get a mat (more funny than 'mate') and they forget to hide their superiority (the college does not teach you.

Chinese and railroad in US

It is cheaper to hire Chinese on building CA's high-speed rail which is a legacy project for the governor. They have machines to lay rails and build bridges. Their trains have been tested and most cost effective.

In addition, do you think our workers would work in the tough, hot climate? It is better to sit back and enjoy the generous welfare checks.
Without Chinese, the railroad would not be connected to California in such short time and so is the cross-country rail in Canada. At one time, the west Canada would join the US if the railroad were not connected.

Tariff on Chinese products

After the tariff, if Chinese products are still competitive, then the tariff is added to the consumer.

If they are not competitive, very few of them will be replaced by US products and the majority will be replaced by low wage countries without tariff.

What will we gain from the tariff?

Huawei

Huawei dominates some mobile phone markets in Europe esp. those using Huawei's network. Apple is NOT the best phone for the money compared to Huawei and Samsung. Apple's current strength is the ecosystem and Apple's lawyers. US fends off Huawei on national security reason. It is debatable as there are already at least 20% of the global network passing thru Huawei's networks.

Trump is making China great again

It seems we're getting more isolated than before and China is just the opposite. Good or bad?

The embargo of Iran drives cheap oil to China.
The trade wars with our partners drive them to China.
His silly tweets make Xi look like a saint.
His immoral acts and talks make us immoral too.
His firing on his own selected folks is unpresidential.
The lack of major projects on infrastructure makes us pale.
We have too many problems at home such as constant shootings, lack of gun control, forest fires, flooding, hurricanes, expensive health care, failing infrastructure, huge national debt, endless wars etc. Please fix them first before we fix other countries’ problems.
I do agree with many of Trump’s actions and policy such as tough on our partners and immigration policy.

Communist China

Contrary to many of your belief, accepting to Communist party is very honorable in China. It gives one many privileges including entrance to better universities and jobs. It is a top club but China is no communists today. It is 'socialism with Chinese characters'.


Japan and war crimes

They raped so many women and killed even babies.
They had a challenge to see how many Chinese' heads they could cut. One said it was not fair as his sword was dull and started over again. What kind of animals these criminals were?
Bombs were dropped in populated cities for many years. Many horrible stories were told from victims.
To me, bye-gone is bye-gone. Today this generation of Japanese will not commit the same crime. If they do, the entire Japan will be wiped out in less than a day. No kidding.

For facts, check out Chang's Nanjing or the movie (available in Netflix) with the same title. That will make you angry even if you're not a Chinese.
Today the Japanese leaders including Abe visits the 'shrines' every year to pay honor of these war criminals. Just hail to Hitler to me.
I believe Chang's book was not allowed to be sold in Japan. The Japs rewrote the text books. The mayor of Osaka did not think the massacre of Nanjing ever happened even with the museum dedicated to it. Give me a break please.
They forced Korean women to be sex slaves to their soldiers. Some were fxxx so many times that they could not move. No compensation and no sorry!
The A-bomb should be dropped in the palace to end the war. If you believe in Karma, the Japs got their share.

The Japanese war criminals of WW2 should have the same treatment as the Jews trialing the German war criminals. It could be China and the suffering countries were financially weak.

Now all these criminals died of old age and I hope they all be judged by a higher court in hell.

Long Chinese history

The US history is relatively short. You may feel sorry for me to study the long history of China in high school. Creatively, in my test I wrote down the dynasty fell due to corruption and out-of-touch with the common folks. When we do not learn from history, we will repeat history.

Common for smart guys

What is Einstein and Newton have in common besides science? They both lost big money in the stock market. The market cannot be determined by formula and equations. It is a multi-disciplined 'science'.

Paradise and the market
Should have shorted PG&E which is down by about 24%. It is a regulated utility, so will California chip in to maintain a specific profit level?

I selected stocks to short from my screens. But, some will not be shown on the screens faster than my eyes and ears (and the internet). Always lessons to be learned in investing.


Why China rises

It is more than cheap labor. There are many countries with labor cost far cheaper than China. Many countries do not have embargo for decades.

Here are some besides labor:
1. Hard working of Chinese after suffering from century of humiliation and Mao's poor governance. They are motivated and educated. Many Africans are just opposite today.
2. Government build infrastructure. Without electricity, the factory does not work. Without roads and ports, no goods can be shipped. Thanks to Deng's vision to start with small economic zoom in the coastal area with infrastructure.
3. Nixon took out the embargo. They should build a statute by the side of Deng.
4. Our companies need cheap labor to assemble the products. China gave incentives and the cheaper transportation cost helped.
5. We are the victims of our success. A rich, developed country needs to protect their workers with good salaries. protect our environment...
It seems to be mutually beneficial until China can change to be a designer / competitor from a factory assembler.

China’s political system
Chinese call their system "socialism with Chinese characteristics". You can call it group dictatorship. It is far better and money saving not to overturn the achievements (good or bad) overnight when a new party takes over such as ObamaCare.

A basic system such as capitalism has to be modified to treat the country's needs and restrictions. For example, China does not have the resources on trialing cases such as OJ but a bullet will do. It is harsh to us.

Compared to China 40 years ago, it is not that harsh. China will fail if it does not adopt as in every country. From the last 40 years, China has been improved by leaps and bounds in most fronts. Their citizens' living standard has been improved immensely. When it works including Xi, there is no need to change. I do not say China does not have her own problems and every country has her own share.


Communism is everyone gets everything equal such as salary. It has its advantages and disadvantages as in every system. The biggest disadvantage is there is no incentive to work hard (such as our union workers).

It does not happen in China today unless you twist the definition. Chinese are more incentive to work hard and the students study hard. This is the good result of capitalism. However, the wealth gap has been widened. But most benefit even the lowest citizens of society when the country is richer. Today, few Chinese are starving to my knowledge.

China

* China is not communism only in the word CCP. It is more capitalist than us. Communism does not allow you to set up shops.
* China has been semi colonized and bankrupted by the 8-nation alliance when Brits pushed opium to China. China ignored the Industrial Revolution and it was their error not opening trades (how ironic!)
* The embargo with our alliance made China poor and Mao's poor governance did not help.
* In the last 40 years, China has grown faster than any country esp. in this scale.
* It is over-capacity and the debts are high. However, they are under control.
* It has been helping many developing countries in exchange for the trade such as Africa and now the countries in their OROB projects.
If they can do so much in the last 40 years, I expect they can do more in the next 40 years - I'm naturally biased.

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