Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Using sectors to gauge the market

We use Transportation section to gauge the economy. When we move from an industrial to a service economy, this indicator is not as good as before but still viable.

The bank sector is not as good too as it depends too much on the quality of the loans and their exposures to foreign loans. 


The energy sector gives me the best return, but it is the most volatile.

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Q has been a good predictor for 2000 and 2007. It is the total market value / total replacement cost. 

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Is the Olympics record a good indicator?

When Greece hosted the Olympics, I know they will create a lot of white elephants and the old civilization will created. 100% correct.

When E. Germany gained most medals, next years they were acquired.

When the USSR gained most medals, next years they're dissolved.

Only Asian countries and Australia did the opposite: Japan, S. Korea and China (I'm not 100% on China).


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Historical data, valuations and lessons teach us to deal with a rational market. Today the market is not rational. Better move to cash as much as possible and wait for the opportunities to move back.

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