You may need to hold CAT longer like two years (after 2014) when the economy starts to recover. Even with the present metrics, it looks great. The mining and construction businesses are slowing down but they will come back after the 2007 recession.
I use a scoring system. From 5/7/12: It scores at 24 for short term and 17 for long-term. I think the reverse is true (i.e. 17 for short term) - with 15 is a buy.
Value Line indicates annualized 16% return after 3 years (8% is good for me.) Fidelity has 9.5 out of 10 from analysts. 17% of its stock price is cash. It is 98% cheaper compared to its 5-year average P/E.
The only negative point besides the global economy is its high debt / market capital. It is quite normal in its industry.
On that day of the analysis, the stock price is 97.19 and now is 79.14. I bought it two times in between these prices. Is it a gem or will it fall further? Only time can tell.
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