The following is real except the names are withdrawn to protect the innocent.
Dear Guru, I followed your advices 2 times and both made me money. However, the last time you're totally wrong and I lost a lot. What should I do? John
First the guru did good with 66% correct. Investing is about educated guesses. 51% correct can make you a lot of money (try black jack and craps). Even 50% can make you a lot of money if you bet more on winners and less on losers based on reward/risk.
Fisher, considered to be the father of modern portfolio theories, made several good predictions and made a fortune. However, he bet most in his last major prediction and lost it all. If John bet evenly, he is far ahead of Fisher.
The moral of this true story (that happens many times) is: Do not bet it all as nothing is 100% certain. Even with 99.99% sure, a black swan event could happen and wipe out your entire saving.
When some one tells me he makes millions of dollars in a bet and this is his only bet for a long while, it does not impress me except his good luck and he has violated diversification rules in investment. The only exception is the congressmen / women and corporate CEOs who trade with insider's info.
Friends ask me what to buy and when to buy. I try to avoid the answers like a politician. If they are right, they will not share the winning with me. If they are right, I would be blamed mercilessly. Silence is proven here to be golden.
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