Monday, November 14, 2011

Chinese bashers

In blogging in public, I comment against Chinese bashers. In most cases, I try to meet them half way as there are no absolute right and wrong on almost everything. I hope to change some of them esp. the younger folks. It has cost them some money if they have not invested in US companies that invest and benefit in China's rise.

I try to find out why there are so many Chinese bashers.

* We cannot change the older generation as they still see Chinese with pigtails working as cooks and butlers as the top jobs for them. They have to bring their biases to their graves.

* I hope to change the younger generation that is influenced by politicians and the media. Some are true but most are not true. To illustrate, they blamed China on poor construction that caused so many lives in earthquake, but no one blamed same on other poor countries.

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Here are some of my comments defending China.

* China will have soft landing.
- China is not run by fools looking for 4 year re-election at all costs. The fixes are fast and efficient (sometimes inhuman to me).

If China were run by fools, why they become #2 in economy and millions were lifted from poverty (i.e. not starving to death) in last 30 years from a economy far worse than India.


- There are a lot of monetary reserves. Money can fix everything, almost.


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You must live in a cave in your last 30 years to find US is not a currency manipulator and you do not know the purpose of printing money to lower our debt burden. China applies the same trick by pegging the currency to USD initially.

The middle class in China is the best saver (compared to US easily). The down payment is huge compared to US in 2007.

They're mastering the western technologies from virtually 0. Sometimes it is too fast to me and problems pop up naturally. It is a wake up call and nothing more. You do not know how many train wrecks we've in US.

The space docking is no small task even it is about 35 years behind - 35 years is not too generous estimate if you consider their speed, skilled workers, and today's supporting technologies such as CPU. Not to mention many other advances. The macro view is they've a government and wealth to promote technologies and the qualified scientists - 3 factors US is lacking.

The housing problem is under control and judging from how the government handled crisis in the past I or any intelligent folk would not want to bet against it.

China is not a rich country per capita, but is rich enough for the government to fix all these problems.

- The middle class is a huge internal market. If you go to any Chinese city 10 years ago and now, the changes will surprise you.

- China has moved to the next stage of developing its economy with products of higher value and better quality.

* The only unknown is a trade war with US. The politicians who cannot fix our problems will put all the blames with China in order to buy votes.

The housing bubble should have a soft landing with further 10% depreciation. It is a riskier predication as human psychology is unpredictable. However and as most assets, they will return to the average price.

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Nobel prizes take about half a generation of education/development judging from the average age of the winners. I should say they re-started their school system about 50 years ago (about the time after the Cultural Revolution).

Nobel prizes are getting political against China. Why Obama got it for doing nothing and Deng not getting it for lifting millions from starvation? Why the prize winners are awarded to Chinese residents who left China? It is my logic and nothing against Nobel Prize.

Shanghai school kids (above the average in urban China but not too much above) are #1 in science and maths. in the world. Check the % of Chinese PhDs in your top local colleges, and sometimes is higher than the local born. Amazing, or eye-opener for some!

High creativity is not needed for most jobs like accounting, programming, managers, lawyers and even doctors. We need folks like Jobs and Gates to create jobs for the educated group that Chinese have now with rote learning. China does have schools for genius and we will see how they work out in the future.

They do copy. It is a stage of becoming developing country. Japan and S. Korea all passed through the same stage. They need to enforce intelligent property before they can move to the next stage. Did US pay Germany for using their atomic bomb technology?

I do think China should improve (not reform) their education system and enforce intelligent property very soon.

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