http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmJq_e1F5yI 抱緊眼前人
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkza1R3ZnDQ&feature=related 許美靜 - 明知故犯
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAfmXlv9ff4 許美靜 - 城裡的月光
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCe8x5cSgpM&feature=related 張宇 - 用心良苦
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTkno1FGSwo 陳 慧嫻 千千闕歌
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlWyt7ztv8M 陳 慧嫻多少柔情多少夢
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3HsnK1Bsfs&feature=related 陳 慧嫻 跳 舞 街
http//www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_3Dbb5O4Fc 陳 慧嫻 逝去的諾言
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohPVODWs2NI&feature=related 林 志美 感情的段落
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xORx-18NcQ 周 啟生 天長地久
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Zjv1iZw7RI 彭羚 讓我跟你走
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMG_1WycsiE&feature=related 仇雲峰 半真半假
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUM-a3OKeJ4 方麗盈- 傷感雨天
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JojnkpR_-kc&feature=related 李 國祥 - 餘情未了
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmT962BlzUw&feature=related 總有你鼓勵 - 倫永亮 + 李國祥
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgudX_bMSv8 王 菲-愛與痛的邊緣
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5jopLPgI8Q&feature=related 劉 嘉亮 - 你到底愛誰
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpApT5az7sM&feature=related 本 多RuRu 美麗心情
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47Jn9jZY9ow 林 宸希不再問
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnrKK2EQKxA&feature=related 張學友 + 湯寶如 - 相思風雨中
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcyRpDsfZYY&feature=related 張學 友 + 黎瑞恩 - 長流不息
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUkewCSfDiI 林淑容 + 羅時豐 - 無言的結局
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMjQ2Nzc3Mjky.html 陳淑樺--夢醒 時分
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZRm59Z-xHM 黃凱芹 晚秋
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm1cQlvBTz0 盧 巧音 好心分手
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iduiLbTtCs 關 心妍 你有心
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCoXxoJObuw&feature=related 關心妍 - 我太强
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZyD-FFPKOc 容 祖兒 痛愛
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9NNnhkqfnI 野孩子 - 楊千嬅
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miqUXWuyA0s&feature=related 楊千 嬅-可惜我是水瓶座
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isqwwfWJPso 陳 慧琳 - 最佳位置
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTQzNjQxOTY=.html 梁 詠琪 死 心塌地
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qm165eB1B24 衛 蘭 - 大哥
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEDZyIUbSd0 明天 會更好
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfbMhFpXxYM 劉 德華-緣盡
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRzELQ2nsVQ 劉德華-一起 走過的日子
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axixN95x5sM 劉德華-真我的風 采
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erQi89KrJfo 葉振棠 - 勝利雙手創
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSQ8lXi3MUI 紅 塵戀歌 安以軒 、 叢浩楠
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkhFZUCODiE&feature=related 華 夏英雄 鄧超
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEy0Tz_rOic&feature=related 許冠傑 斤兩十足 (37首歌完整版)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQrE0lEghCY&feature=related 詠梅 - 關正傑
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGKb0PIH-i0 蔡 楓華 - 何必曾相識
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRP09Ry-Dac 人之初
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLmD_6U2JrI&feature=related 陳浩德、方伊琪 - 平湖秋月
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVCueCqmKds&feature=related 張德蘭 鮮花滿月樓
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9I1t6TmASZQ&feature=related 情義兩心堅 神鵰2006
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QzE-kgzIYc&feature=related 情 若無花不結果 - 張德蘭
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUW9DFhCq3I 杯酒當歌
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maUgKsABoOg&feature=related 周華健/成龍/黃耀明/李宗盛-在晴朗的天空下
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdiVDRqHn_o&feature=related 童年 - 蔡國權
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMjM4MTEzOTI0.html 彭家麗-昨天今天下雨天
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGO_QLRWYn8&feature=related 《借來的美夢》－－彭健新
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2RzkFcuy_U&feature=related 鄭君綿 - 賭仔自嘆
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmGaWIBzKwY&feature=related 蔡楓華 - 煙外曉雲輕
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Isb8RMUFkmk&feature=related 蔡楓華 倩 影
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3jVyulDJ8o&feature=related 陳奕迅-明年今日
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUgEEa9APD4&feature=related 陳百强 - 等
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1c556b72OdM&feature=related 陳百强 - 今宵多珍重
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rDRDcFdMSk&feature=related 陳百强 ~ 偏 偏喜歡你
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNRIuaxd1YQ&feature=related 張國榮, 許冠傑 - 沉默是金
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6pwVLMCUWw&feature=related 陳百强 - 不
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcOW-IAEuO0 陳百強-漣漪
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBFIdywghB4&feature=related 喝采 - 陳百強
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7oOmSZ0coQ&feature=related 林珊珊 - 戀愛預告
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUM-a3OKeJ4&feature=related 傷感雨天 方麗盈
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Friday, December 30, 2011
Efficient Charities
Leaving money to the government is the same as leaving money to an addict of spending money like no tomorrow.
Leaving money to Gates Foundation does not fare well all the time. They should teach the poor how to fish, not giving them fish for their entire life. They should use a model specific to Africa (like the one from China) instead of the American model. However, they do some good deeds in many other areas. Really helping the poor is not a science but an art. Throwing money will not solve any long-term problem.
As Buffett's son said, once Americans leave with the big machines/equipments, Africans will return to the bad old days. You do not need to automate with abundant labor available. From his talk, I think he has better insight and vision to handle his father's foundation than giving it to Gates. He would contribute more to our world in heading the charity instead of running his father's fund company that he has no interest and desire to.
Buffett and Gates donate their life-time savings to charities. It is the most noble deed to mankind. I argue against the comments that they profit themselves. Of course, both should donate their appreciated stocks so they maximize their donations. They should appoint their heirs to supervise their foundations and get salaries for the work. The only objection is Buffett should not advocate the way he wants to change the tax laws. Without deduction to charities, the poor will get less aids.
The African farming industry is being destroyed as they cannot compete with freebees. Ensure your donation is not skimmed by the corrupt officials like in Haiti and some African countries.
Donate money to the charities with low overheads and spending the money correctly. If you donate limited funds, try to limit yourself to one charity. They will send you letters... and these are the cause of their high overheads. I also would ask how much their presidents are making.
US and its citizens are the kindest folks on earth as long as donations to the foreign poor is concerned. I hope our new tax laws will maintain the same deduction. As Gandhi said, the world has enough resources for all but we're not unselfish enough to share.
Leaving money to Gates Foundation does not fare well all the time. They should teach the poor how to fish, not giving them fish for their entire life. They should use a model specific to Africa (like the one from China) instead of the American model. However, they do some good deeds in many other areas. Really helping the poor is not a science but an art. Throwing money will not solve any long-term problem.
As Buffett's son said, once Americans leave with the big machines/equipments, Africans will return to the bad old days. You do not need to automate with abundant labor available. From his talk, I think he has better insight and vision to handle his father's foundation than giving it to Gates. He would contribute more to our world in heading the charity instead of running his father's fund company that he has no interest and desire to.
Buffett and Gates donate their life-time savings to charities. It is the most noble deed to mankind. I argue against the comments that they profit themselves. Of course, both should donate their appreciated stocks so they maximize their donations. They should appoint their heirs to supervise their foundations and get salaries for the work. The only objection is Buffett should not advocate the way he wants to change the tax laws. Without deduction to charities, the poor will get less aids.
The African farming industry is being destroyed as they cannot compete with freebees. Ensure your donation is not skimmed by the corrupt officials like in Haiti and some African countries.
Donate money to the charities with low overheads and spending the money correctly. If you donate limited funds, try to limit yourself to one charity. They will send you letters... and these are the cause of their high overheads. I also would ask how much their presidents are making.
US and its citizens are the kindest folks on earth as long as donations to the foreign poor is concerned. I hope our new tax laws will maintain the same deduction. As Gandhi said, the world has enough resources for all but we're not unselfish enough to share.
Friday, December 23, 2011
Reponse to James's all 100% cash for 2012
James recommended 100% cash in an article in seekingAlpha.
I analyze 2012 a little differently from James. I expect not much change from now to mid 2012 - we'll have the same volatile market. In mid 2012, we've to evaluate the market conditions again. If the problem like EU crisis is resolved, I would move all cash to equities and expect a 10% return for 2012.
It is not practical to predict for the entire year and we have to change our strategy when market changes. Other than that, I am pretty much with James.
Update. Even with the market up, James did not change his position and predicted sth bad could happen in April, 2012. Pretty agree with him that EU have to do sth drastic.
Click here for my crystal ball for 2012.
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My profit calculator = (my rate of return - SPY return)/abs(SPY return)
Or, how well I did against S&P500 at year end.
If S&P loses 5% and my return is 0%, then I'm 100% better than S&P 500 even I gained $0.
You do not have to make money every year and you do not want to violate Buffett's first 2 rules of investment: Do not lose money and do not forget rule #1.
If you're good market timer, you can gamble with shorts and contraETFs. Personally I do everything with emphasize on safety at least for the next 3 months.
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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 12/23/11. Last updated in 12/23/11.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
I analyze 2012 a little differently from James. I expect not much change from now to mid 2012 - we'll have the same volatile market. In mid 2012, we've to evaluate the market conditions again. If the problem like EU crisis is resolved, I would move all cash to equities and expect a 10% return for 2012.
It is not practical to predict for the entire year and we have to change our strategy when market changes. Other than that, I am pretty much with James.
Update. Even with the market up, James did not change his position and predicted sth bad could happen in April, 2012. Pretty agree with him that EU have to do sth drastic.
Click here for my crystal ball for 2012.
-------------
My profit calculator = (my rate of return - SPY return)/abs(SPY return)
Or, how well I did against S&P500 at year end.
If S&P loses 5% and my return is 0%, then I'm 100% better than S&P 500 even I gained $0.
You do not have to make money every year and you do not want to violate Buffett's first 2 rules of investment: Do not lose money and do not forget rule #1.
If you're good market timer, you can gamble with shorts and contraETFs. Personally I do everything with emphasize on safety at least for the next 3 months.
-------
(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 12/23/11. Last updated in 12/23/11.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Diets that always work
I know one diet that really works and I'm importing it from China. Millions of thin Chinese are the best living proof. It is the tape worm therapy. You inject big-mouth tape worms under control environment into your body. You need to sign a no-sue contract but life insurance (trust me it will come in handy) is included free. They will eat up all the nutrients in your body.
The other therapy that also works is sending you to a remote location in Africa where you cannot find a TV and processed food like chips and beer. You have to perform a daily exercise by running from wild animals that could eat you alive if they catch up with you. This is the ONLY motivating exercise that works.
In either therapy, your obesity problem will be fixed. Even if the therapy fails and you die, your obesity is still fixed GUARANTEED or your money back - well money may not be useful for you then :).
If you try it and it works, please share your experience and be my spokesman /woman in my new venture.
-----
If you're offended and/or think the above is not a joke, please check into your neighborhood clinic to ensure what's wrong with you esp. in the sense of humor department.
The other therapy that also works is sending you to a remote location in Africa where you cannot find a TV and processed food like chips and beer. You have to perform a daily exercise by running from wild animals that could eat you alive if they catch up with you. This is the ONLY motivating exercise that works.
In either therapy, your obesity problem will be fixed. Even if the therapy fails and you die, your obesity is still fixed GUARANTEED or your money back - well money may not be useful for you then :).
If you try it and it works, please share your experience and be my spokesman /woman in my new venture.
-----
If you're offended and/or think the above is not a joke, please check into your neighborhood clinic to ensure what's wrong with you esp. in the sense of humor department.
Retail investors and market timing
The average retail investor has advantages over fund managers.
However, the average retail investor does worse than the market. Most just buy high and sell low - a kind of herd mentality.
In quarterly summaries, Fidelity demonstrated this more than one time. It shows the retail investors moved to money market fund when the market was at temporary bottoms (or close to), and moved to equities when market was at temporary peaks (or close to). It could be a good contradictory indicator if Fidelity or any fund company publishes this money market flow consistently.
Morningstar has similar proof. During 2000 to 2010, equity funds earn an annualized return 1.6% while an average investor captured a .2% return due to moving in and out of the funds at the wrong time.
Click here for Psychology 101 for investing.
-------
(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 12/23/12. Last updated in 12/23/11.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
However, the average retail investor does worse than the market. Most just buy high and sell low - a kind of herd mentality.
In quarterly summaries, Fidelity demonstrated this more than one time. It shows the retail investors moved to money market fund when the market was at temporary bottoms (or close to), and moved to equities when market was at temporary peaks (or close to). It could be a good contradictory indicator if Fidelity or any fund company publishes this money market flow consistently.
Morningstar has similar proof. During 2000 to 2010, equity funds earn an annualized return 1.6% while an average investor captured a .2% return due to moving in and out of the funds at the wrong time.
Click here for Psychology 101 for investing.
-------
(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 12/23/12. Last updated in 12/23/11.
Disclaimer:
Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
No Nativity Scene?
I got a email from my potential congressman as follows:
The Supreme Court has ruled that there cannot be a Nativity Scene in the United States’ Capital this Christmas Season. This isn’t for any religious reason. They simply have not been able to find Three Wise Men in the Nation’s Capital. The Search for a Virgin continues. There was no problem, however, finding enough asses to fill the stable.
My reply:
Beg to differ. All congressmen including yourself are wise men if you compare your bank account before your term and after.
You can find a lot of virgins but you've to lower your age requirement or change the definition of a virgin. For definition, borrow the example from Clinton's no smoker policy: As long as you do not exhale, you're a non-smoker. Change the word 'exhale' with many words I can think of but they are not too polite to write them down here - just in case the naive Sister Teresa is reading my blog secretly.
It appears to be a fact that there are more mouths kissing asses than asses available to be kissed. Hence, we really have a shortage of asses.
A true incident to TonyP4
The Supreme Court has ruled that there cannot be a Nativity Scene in the United States’ Capital this Christmas Season. This isn’t for any religious reason. They simply have not been able to find Three Wise Men in the Nation’s Capital. The Search for a Virgin continues. There was no problem, however, finding enough asses to fill the stable.
My reply:
Beg to differ. All congressmen including yourself are wise men if you compare your bank account before your term and after.
You can find a lot of virgins but you've to lower your age requirement or change the definition of a virgin. For definition, borrow the example from Clinton's no smoker policy: As long as you do not exhale, you're a non-smoker. Change the word 'exhale' with many words I can think of but they are not too polite to write them down here - just in case the naive Sister Teresa is reading my blog secretly.
It appears to be a fact that there are more mouths kissing asses than asses available to be kissed. Hence, we really have a shortage of asses.
A true incident to TonyP4
Monday, December 19, 2011
The 'smell' of victory
When we tested out some strategies, we found out we could be a billionaire if we followed the successful one for the last 10 years. Most likely this is the false smell of victory, so do not wake up your wife to tell her your holy trail discovery. If it is that easy, most of us should be sipping some exotic, tropical drinks in some exotic, tropical island served by some exotic, tropical ladies :)
There are no investor heroes including Buffett.
The follow are the reasons I can think of now.
* The strategy worked last 10 years may not work for next 10 years. When one strategy is a headliner, most likely it is the top for the strategy. When too many follow, it will fail. It is the herd psychology.
* Survivorship bias. When you play with penny stocks that usually are big winners or big losers, half of them may bankrupt. Most historical database may not keep them. It gives you better performance than the actual. If you do not include Lehman Brothers, would your portfolio perform better?
* When you deal with penny stocks, you may end up to buy most of the company if you're successful. In reality, we never do so.
However, click for the strategy that always works and most likely will beat S&P 500.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 12/19/11. Updated 12/19/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
There are no investor heroes including Buffett.
The follow are the reasons I can think of now.
* The strategy worked last 10 years may not work for next 10 years. When one strategy is a headliner, most likely it is the top for the strategy. When too many follow, it will fail. It is the herd psychology.
* Survivorship bias. When you play with penny stocks that usually are big winners or big losers, half of them may bankrupt. Most historical database may not keep them. It gives you better performance than the actual. If you do not include Lehman Brothers, would your portfolio perform better?
* When you deal with penny stocks, you may end up to buy most of the company if you're successful. In reality, we never do so.
However, click for the strategy that always works and most likely will beat S&P 500.
(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 12/19/11. Updated 12/19/11.
#####
Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.
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