Daily walk

Geopolitical crisis

Many times no action is the best action. It applies here.  I had my experience in selling too many stocks via stops in 911. The market returned in a few days and I did not buy them back.

An analysis from Ned David Research covers 51 events from 1900 to 2014. My interpretation for actions: Trade the affected sector (via sector ETF) in the first few days and reverse the trade 2 months after. Many times it means the oil price and gold price would rise.

I bought SH (a contra ETF to SPY) in August, 2017 as August and September are statistically the worst months in addition to the high risk in the current market.  It is expected to be sold in Nov. 1. The North Korea crisis did not do much to the market on the first day but the market (S&P 500) lost 1.45% and the risky NASDAQ lost 2.13% (see my blog on FAANG) on the second day.

                                                                                          

Caveat. Need to understand the crisis. If it would lead to World War 3, most sectors will not recover for a long while. Again, there is no sure thing in investing otherwise there would be no poor folks. However, educated guesses should materialize more often than not.

Brokers, brokers...

Broker A gave me 30 free trades per month for a deposit of $25,000. Several times they told me the trade was executed via email but actually not. Magazine editors, please check this feature instead of the execution 1 micro second faster. Their one-year CD interest rate is virtually zero. Easily you can calculate how many interest you miss for the benefit of 30 free trades per month. I do not trade a lot in this risky market, so it is not for me.

I asked my primary broker the cash incentive to switch these accounts to theirs. He told me none due to my taking advantage of them last time. I asked for proofs and he gave me none in a very nasty tone.

If I switched money after I deposited and received the cash incentive, then I was guilty. I did not recall it. Even if I did, the system was wrong as it should prevent it from happening. I asked his manager to reassign my account to another financial planner as he did not look after my benefits. For the last decade or two, I met him once and talked to him several times on the phone. If he worked on commissions, it could be the easiest money to get from me.

If you have a lot of money in the broker's account in cash (or money market fund), the interest rate is virtually zero. I wonder how much money I lost for doing so. CDs range from 1% to 2% depending on the maturity period. Ladder your CDs so you can have money to move back to the market when the market plunges. 

Why outsourcing

The town sent in 3 guys to fix my water meter. A typical joke on union.

It still did not work. This morning one guy fixed the problem and he was outsourced by the town.

Beautiful Mexican ladies

My real personal experience with minor modifications.

Rudely I was wakened up by my housemates in college telling me to meet some beautiful Mexican ladies and make some money in the same time. Happily I brushed up and put on my Sunday dress. Unfortunately I was tricked to work in a farm picking oranges.Yes, there were some beautiful ladies but all had passed their prime decades ago.

For the entire hot morning, several of us filled up a crate that was higher than I It was the toughest job I ever worked; that’s why I watched every penny since then and now I watched every quarter.

We quit and we got paid $1 each. We used the dollar for a Smorgasbord (a popular Swedish buffet then). We became the soda machines (drinking too much soda) and the chicken bones piled up to the ceiling. Now I feel sorry for the owner. He must have taken a picture of us and would close the restaurant when he sees us coming in the future.

Except some exaggeration, it is real. Why Trump wanted to exclude the Mexicans coming in to take jobs no one (except the desperate Mexicans) wants is beyond my comprehension. For the same reasons, we have to issue more H-1B visas otherwise we cannot compete in many technical fields. However, we have to control and monitor.

Balancing act

Time to play defense or offense in the stock market today?

The market is fundamentally unsound and technically sound. When it turns to be technically unsound, exit and have a good sleep that is worth all the gold in the world.

Pinch of inflation

When the beggar asks me for a dollar (instead spare change), I feel the pinch of inflation.