I
made many financial mistakes along with some good decisions in 2019. I have
explained on how to avoid some mistakes in my books and I did not follow my
preaching.
In
the last two months of 2019, I started buying contra ETFs betting the market to
go down while the market has been making new heights. The market is financially
unsound but technically sound. Lesson #1:
Follow the simplest market timing described in this book. Lesson #2: Never bet
against the market on a year before election.
There
are always two sides of opposite views on the market. I studied them and
believe 2020 could be a disastrous year for the market. No one is sure unless
s/he has a time machine. Again follow Lesson #1.
I
did well in buying GLD/SLV, OIL/USO and basic materials including IYW and two copper
miners. Will unload some copper miners. Will unload OIL/USO when it approaches to
$70 per barrel. We need a good economy or some events to drive up the oil
price. Lesson #3: Every portfolio should have a small portion in gold (GLD/or similar
ETFs, gold coins and ETF for gold miners).
Stay
away from Chinese stocks for the entire year. I may buy a contra ETF on Chinese
stocks. The trade war and the explosive debts will drive China’s economy down
for a few years.
I
had 50% profit in one month using my year-end strategy in 2018. From my memory,
I made about 100% on YRCW and lost about 30% on another bet on the same stock.
Lesson #4: “Year-End Strategy” works at least so far. Lesson #5: Sell the
stocks bought using this strategy within 2 months, and hence I should use
retirement accounts for this strategy.
I
made some money in trading energy stocks that have been beaten badly. Lesson
#6: Buy low and sell high. Lesson #7: Buffett’s “Be greedy when everyone is
fearful and vice versa” is correct.
There
are many ‘great’ traders making millions and losing most. Lesson #8: Avoid big losses
by using stops. Lesson #9: Do not speculate and be a turtle investor.
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