Monday, September 24, 2018

Business news



China and robots

China has been increasing using robots due to the aging population and the rising wages. Most robots in China today were made in China, quite different from 10 years ago.

Today's robots are cost effective in manufacturing. Service-typed robots such as taking care of elderly and teaching children are in the future and they depend on AI advances. Robots for consumers will be more sophisticated and practical in the near future.

Bad China’s one-party rule according to an Indian

One-party rule is not a bad thing if you consider what China has accomplished in the last 35 years. India is not even able to copy China's model. I watched several YouTube videos compared the two countries and not a single one was made by Chinese. Indians should compare herself to India 5 or 10 years ago.

If you cannot have the basics such as food and shelter, all the freedom is NOTHING. Chinese in some areas have too much freedom and need regulations / enforcement esp. in running businesses.

Facts are not facts

The facts are not facts that most interpret.

1. India's growth of oil import is larger than China.

2. India's GDP growth is larger than China.

The growths are but not the actual numbers as India started in a low level last year.

China imports about double the oil as India.

The encouraging sign is China is moving from coal (my estimate from the peak of 70% polluting coal to less than 65%) to green energies. With the growth of high speed rail and subway, China uses energy more efficiently. India is efficient too if considering riders on the top of the train. When you buy a ticket, you may be told to go upstairs!
Aug 29, 2018. 07:57 AMLink

Bombardier

Bombardier may be saved by Chinese to a small extent. The coming joint venture of airport people movers is promising. Shenzhen is the first one and China has more than 100 airports.

China bought many Bombardier’s passenger cars for the trains to Tibet that have oxygen supply.

Today China can build most passenger cars (trains and subway cars) for home market and export (invading Bombardier's traditional market) and the short-distance jets.

TTWO

TTWO has been doing wonder for me in the last 3 years until a big plunge recently. It was recommended among 12 or so stocks in my SA article Amazing Returns many years ago. Normally I do not hold the stocks I bought for long. But, these stocks were given to minors and they should keep them after college.

Apple

Is Apple peaking? Fundamentally it is very sound among FAANGs. China plays an important factor on the stock price.

I like iPhone X for taking great videos but I will not shell out the money to upgrade mine. It applies to millions of users, so Apple may be peaking.

There will be no breakthroughs or new products from Apple in September. The new products will cover different markets for the X platform.

I bet there will be no lines camped to buy the new phones. I could be wrong.  Aug 27, 2018. 12:27 PMLink

Good employment report

Mathematically incorrect, 4% is full employment.

To me, there are 4% population who do not want to work. If they work, they will lose the generous welfare, all kinds of subsidies, free health care in some states, etc. Now it could be 3% for full employment. There is no proof from me, but it is a great Ph.D. thesis and a better research thesis than "Are the bees mate for fun?".

Many industries such as construction have a hard time to find employees. Do we need more illegal Mexicans (better with an improved work visa program)? Sep 7, 2018. 08:30 AMLink

Zero commission

With today's efficient software systems and minimal people intervention, they still can make money. Most of our cash in the broker account are virtually interest free and can be very profitable to lend them out. Their margin interest rate costs us a fortune. Plus there are many other ways to squeeze money from us. It is great for traders if there is no limit in the no. of trades. Some brokers offer two choices for the cash in these accounts: cash (that has no interest usually) and money market. Check out which one is good for you.

Johnson and Johnson

They settled one lawsuit in India. How about the baby powder lawsuit that could turn the company upside down?

Macau stocks suffer

About 2 or 3 months ago, I laid out the reasons not buying any casino stocks in Macau. Folks had been laughing at me for a while. Now they're crying to the bank. It is hard to convince lottery winners not to buy lotteries.

Microsoft using Huawei chip instead of Nvidia’s

Chinese chip has AI, 5G and many functions. They do have to fight biases and any Trump's trade policy. Kissinger and Nixon would never dream of this. Trump is trying to turn back the clock.

Microsoft may feel pressure from the Chinese government and/or tries to get a better pricing deal from Nvidia

Miss Homes and her blood-test company

Be careful of articulate, beautiful and young CEOs and the handsome x-CEO from J.C. Pennies. Holmes has many honors and the last one is the biggest cheater of 1 B dollar. She made a big mistake: All lies have to surface some time.

Bayer and Monsanto

Did Bayer consider the Round-up lawsuit before the purchase? If I were one of the many victims, I would be the 1%. Fortunate or unfortunate depending on how much longer you can enjoy your sudden wealth.

Opportunities in life

Oil has broken the $70 mark several times. When the global economies improve and/or some events in the Middle East, it will return to the $100 range. Looking back when I recommended oil when it was $30, I should have invested far more. Opportunities only knock several times in a life time. Sep 4, 2018. 07:04 AMLink

Beating the deadlines

The trade increase could be temporary due to beating the deadlines of the tariffs. Next quarter would be more factual.

Apple fundamentals

Even with the biggest show, Apple may be peaking (i.e. no way to go but down).

Fundamentals are just OK but better than most FAANGs. Forward P/E is around 16, but debt is higher than average. The China factor is a liability more than an asset now. It has climbed from $155 to to $234 recently. I bet many institution investors are following the trend. When they change their minds, watch out. I would recommend stops for this stock.

Risky market?

It is interesting there are many parallels today with 2007 such as interest rate and debt. Here is my deeper look. The market is fundamentally unsound but technical sound.

Fundamentals are P/E...while technical are Moving Average... as explained below.

For example, compare the current P/E to the historical average P/E (from my check last time it was 25 and the average is 15). All Moving Averages are positives and that indicates technically sound.

Some metrics are not available from finviz.com but some others are still available by searching Google for CAPE as an example.

If I really want to get all of the metrics, I can get the metric average of the top 10 holdings of the ETF such as SPY. Sep 21, 2018. 11:48 AMLink

Great Depression

Great Depression is not a good reference to predict today’s market trend. There are so many changes today from that era.

Today internet is the culprit for destroying mortar retailers and newspapers. It is profitable to short the old industries such as Sears and buy the stocks that replace them such as Amazon.

Free trade (for example with China) is another factor. Walmart makes money when it is the middle man for Chinese products. It works today as the cost of freights is low compared to 30 years ago. A trade war could change all the benefits.

Today politics plays an important role in our market. If Trump got impeached, the market would be tank.

Great Depression did not have internet, free trade (too costly to ship goods worldwide then) and Trump.

Comparing 2000 and 2007 is good enough. Even for that, today’s market is different from 2000 and 2007. They did not have the 'market stop switch' and Trump. Banking system is far secured today than in 2007.

Sam Walton

Sam Walton miscalculated profit margins of most Chinese products. Being a patriot, he preferred to make less profit. When he died, his family and close relatives changed to buying Chinese stuffs for Walmart. They became the wealthiest family in the world (yes more than Gates and Buffett as a family) and the rest is history.

Ask me why the market is down these few days

Fundamentals only work in the long term. A short but important message.

One belt one road

One Belt One Road is fine but expensive to China. In some instances it does not make economic sense for China. I believe EU’s works are the enhancements rather than building a separate silk road. China has laid out many procedures and simplified some. China has the following major benefits.

1.       Energy import and ore import (Iran) from Middle East.
2.       Enrich the neighboring countries so they can buy Chinese products.
3.       Strengthen the Chinese yuan as a reserve currency.
4.       An alternative trade route to Europe. OBOR is less expensive than air but takes longer time than by sea for most countries.
5.       Some trade partners are land-locked countries.
6.       Uses her excessive capacity and expertise such as in bridge building, rail building and tunnel drilling.
7.       Military. Faster deployment and second route in case the sea route is blockaded.
8.       Enriches provinces in west China to reduce the wealth gap from the coastal provinces.

China’s weapons in the trade war

China was #1 foreign country in holding our treasuries, then #2 and #1 again from my last check. Hence, I guess China is still buying our treasuries or Japanese is not buying.

China has been devaluing the yuan for the last few years. It may accelerate if the trade war materializes.

Be patient. Will Trump still our president in the next election? Take out the political bias. Trump may lose the Hispanic votes and the votes from ObamaCare subscribers.

Profiting with China’s rise

Many global companies are benefiting from co-operating with China from Walmart to Boeing. Australia has a good surplus with China. My high-school classmate (and one or two friends too) became a billionaire because of the rise of China. Do not complain but take advantage of the opportunity.

10% tariff

Most likely the 10% instead of 25% will be continued next year.

When we raise 25% or ban the Chinese products, they will be replaced from other low-wage countries. Hence, it does not gain us any jobs here but the retaliation from China. Have we learned from banning Chinese tires? We do not manufacture low-quality tires and they are replaced by worse tires at higher costs from other countries.

The cost of an iPhone and similar products should be partially included in the trade deficit. It is about $8.50 for Chinese labor. The components inside are all over the world including many Asian countries. Our marketing and design should be considered too.

Protecting our IP please

A beautiful girl jogging at 2 am in a high-crime area was raped. Who's fault? Both but one should go to jail.

We have to protect our intelligence properties (the beautiful girl in our example)!!! Hackers (the rapist) are criminals here but professionals in many countries.

China is smarter than other countries in hacking. Russia (supposed to be the top hacker) has not stolen the entire blueprints of our top fighter jets.
China has produced these top weapons routinely. It is not just a copy cat to me. Otherwise, many countries can do the same.

China reverses engineering of Russia’s SU-33 and the joke on Russia is it is better than the original. You have to be quite innovative and supported by the economy and many component suppliers to produce the copied products in amazing pace and quality.

The battle of two Ma (Mas)

WeChat is quite powerful. It combines Facebook, Amazon... into one package. Its e-pay system is widely used in China. One apps does it all.

I can see why Facebook and Google are banned in China beside political reasons. It would let the local companies the time developing their own systems. EU, Take notes and there are more in life than just milking the fat cows.

iPhone X

The new Apple products are powerful. There are a lot to enhance in the watch, but not much in the phone. Apple is peaking and 1 trillion market cap is unimaginable 5 years ago.

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