Long-term market outlook

The market long-term outlook is not promising. Some of the following five factors may not be avoidable and I wish most of them will not happen in my life time.

1. Retirees are withdrawing their investments

It is not avoidable as the baby boomers (born after the WW2) have been retiring and the millennials with the college loans and a weak job market do not contribute enough to offset the withdrawals. This imbalance also affects every aspect of our economy such as the outpour of entitlements, housing…

2. Conflicts with China

We’re having trade wars with China that would lead to a military war triggered by China’s disputes on islets and the invasion (reunion depending on your view point) of Taiwan. I have written the article “Why a war with China?” However, the risk has been reduced recently. It is due to China’s military advances that are enough to defend her coast line. US would not win without a lot of damages. The balance of power would lead to peace.

3. Endless wars

These wars drain our resources which should be spent in our failing infrastructures. Our next generation(s) will pay for our debts. The politicians want to buy votes from voters who want to receive maximum benefits with minimum contributions. Debts will continue to increase.

4. Loss of reserve currency status

With mounting debts, the USD has been weakened. It is good for our export and repaying our debts. However, it is bad for foreigners to invest in US. It happened to the market collapse for the Brits.

There are evidences that China is cutting down the Treasury bills – they are #1 or #2 foreign countries in owning our Treasury bills. The “One Belt, One Road” projects could cost over 1 trillion. Guess what currency they use? China still has a long way to achieve the status due to her inadequate regulations and experiences.

5.  Natural disasters

There have been many recently. The major one could be the big earthquake in Pacific coast that has been long overdue.

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The above is from my book "Profit from coming market crash" available from Amazon.com.


https://www.amazon.com/dp/B078NYR9DD