Thursday, March 28, 2013

Analzying a stock

The following is from a commenter at Seeking Alpha in analyzing CSC.

I have similar info from various source, so they're not useful for me. The only comments are:

1. If  you trade CSC short term, most metrics are fundamental and will not be useful.

2. I'm still looking for a good site on Insider's info. The author provides a site that I will take a look.


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Value Line has a 3 to 5 year target price of $50 to $60 for CSC.
It recently hit a new high at $50.50. Since then it has been trading (putiing in a top?) between $48 and $49. Book value is $21.

Over the last year, on the way up, CSC gapped up at $25, $31, and $45.

Yahoo shows a PEG of 2.52

Intuit Stock Evaluator tool employing the Warren Buffet methodology places the Intinsic Value at $-441.05.

Guru Focus calculates a Altman Z-Score of 2.54 which places CSC in the fisacal GREY area and calculates a fair value of $49.73.

Barrons Stockgrader gives CSC a grade of 38.4 SELL
In four (4) major categories CSC receives a B- in Growth, B in Value, D in Profitability, and B+ in Cash Flow.

Of 24 subcategories that roll up into the four major categories, CSC receives a score of F in seven (7):
1. Marker Growth Long Term
2. Growth Potential
3. P/E Analysis
4. Capital Utilization
5. Relative Margins
6. Return on Equity
7. Cash Flow Growth

And a score of D in four (4) other subcategries
1. Market Growth Short Term
2. Asset Utilizatioin
3. Operating Margins
4. Quality of Revenues

NASDAQ shows a consensus 1 year target price of $46
NASDAQ Guru Analysis employing eight (8) guru analysis awards highest score of 54 (out of a 100) and a low score of 0.
Guru's (and scores) cited are:
1. Peter Lynch . . . 0
2. Benjamin Graham . . . 14
3. Momentum Strategy Investor Validea . . . 29
4. James O'Shaughnessy . . . 50
5. Motley Fool . . . 35
6. David Dreman . . . 36
7. Martin Zweig . . . 54
8. Kenneth Fisher . . . 30

According to Insider Cow, Dodge & Cox, a deep value mutual fund, that took a position in CSC about a year ago, sold its entire position in Feb or March 2013.

Also according to Insider Cow, corporate executives decline to BUY and seem to immediately SELL all or most of any stock award.

Way more downside risk than upside potential.

I held CSC stock.
Sold at $46 several weeks ago.
Have no position.
Do not intend to take a positioin until it corrects and closes the gaps up.

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