Monday, September 5, 2011

Should we sell MO if you have it over several years

You should keep MO for the dividend yield which is over 5%.

However, I would suggest you to sell some MO for the following reasons:

1. There are some stocks better than MO esp. after the current plunge. Its P/E and other value ratios are below the average at this moment. However, the intangible asset like the cowboy for Marlboro is not included in the financial statement. Its past success may have nothing to do with future success, as indicated by most mutual funds' brochures.

I bet they make the profit from emerging countries like China as the US market for cigarettes is going downhill. China could ban smoking in public. The legal implication is huge. So far, so good for MO.

2. Personally I try not to keep the sin stocks for too long. The most successful they are, the more folks are hurt. I made some quick money on the casinos stocks but I sold them like hot potatoes.

3. It violates my diversification principle in investment. I know one folk who made more than 1 million dollar in one stock and it is his 90% of his portfolio. His good luck (I suspect he could have some insider's info.) does not mean he is a good investor.

#4. L,T. capital gain. It is low (could be the lowest for a while) in these 2 years. You can sell some and buy them back. I got mine almost 0% Federal tax last year as I maintained a 15% tax bracket ('almost' due to raising the social security tax req.)

I do not want to argue with success, but just argue rationally. I made > 80% return in my largest account in 2009 as I timed it right for the recovery phase of the market. It will not happen again at least for a long while, so I change my strategy after that year. Again, I am learning to be a good investor and not trying to be a preacher.

I do not think you will follow my advice like most lottery winners will not stop buying lottery tickets.

(c) TonyP4 2011. Written in 9/5/11. Updated 9/5/11.

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Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.

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